There are a few questions in this series that, when answered, will tell us who this year’s champion will be. The biggest of them is “how do the Celtics defend Luka Doncic?”
It’s a fair question. He’s a generational talent. He’s a savant who processes the game quickly and punishes mistakes like few others in the world. I’ve always held Doncic in high regard, even when people question his conditioning and work ethic, partly because of his lack of conditioning. If a guy can roll out of bed after a night of crushing brews and drop a triple-double and game-winner with Schilitz still on his breath, then he’s a pretty special player.
Exaggerations and jokes aside, stopping Doncic is impossible, especially when his partner in basketball crime is a seemingly focused and mature Kyrie Irving. So what do the Celtics do?
I think the best course of action is to single-cover Doncic as much as possible. Some people might say “but Oklahoma City tried that already and they lost the series.” But that misses the actual reason why the Thunder lost that series and why Boston is a much, much different beast.
The Thunder actually did have some success defensively. The Mavs put up a 113.4 offensive rating and 106 points per game in that series. Dallas had point totals of 95, 105, 96, and 104 against the Thunder, which Boston would sign up for in a heartbeat. I’m sure the Celtics feel like all four of those games would be wins. They’ve only scored below 105 four times in 14 playoff games.
The reason why OKC lost is because they couldn't score. An offensive rating of 113.4 would have been 21st in the regular season and the middle of the pack in the playoffs. It’s a number that is beatable, but teams need to do other things to win games.
“They don't look at your offense, they don't look at your turnovers, they don't look at your transition, they don't look at your second chance points,” Joe Mazzulla said of how people look at wins and losses. “They don't look at your execution on the offensive end. The game is connected, and it's not gonna come down to just one thing. It's gonna come down to the entire game. What was your transition defense like? Was your transition defense affected by your offensive rebounding spacing, your win decisions, your turnovers? Did you shoot the ball well? You have to score in order to win.’
And this is at the heart of why their defensive plan on Doncic did enough to win, and why it will do the same for Boston.
Here are some stats from the OKC series:
Doncic: 114.2 ORtg, 24.7 ppg, 44.7% fg, 39.1% 3pt, 6.3 FTA, 8.7 apg
Irving: 114.8 ORtg, 15.7 ppg, 47.6% fg, 42.3% 3pt, 1.8 FTA, 6.2 apg
PJ Washington: 115 ORtg, 17.7 ppg, 47.6% fg, 46.9% 3pt, 1.7 FTA, 2 apg
Daniel Gafford: 100.7 ORtg, 11 ppg, 61% fg, 4.8 FTA, 1.3 apg
Dereck Lively: 119.7 ORtg, 7.7 ppg, 44.1% fg, 4 FTA, 1.5 apg
Here’s how they did against Minnesota:
Doncic: 114.7 ORtg, 32.4 ppg, 47.3% fg, 43.4% 3pt, 7.8 FTA, 8.2 apg
Irving: 120.3 ORtg, 27 ppg, 49% fg, 37.5% 3pt, 5.2 FTA, 4.6 apg
Washington: 118.5 ORtg, 12.2 ppg, 37.7% 3pt, 25% 3pt, 2.6 FTA, 1.2 apg
Gafford: 106.8 ORtg, 10.7 ppg, 75% fg, 1.8 FTA, 0.4 apg
Lively: 128.6 ORtg, 9.5 ppg, 100% fg, 2.3 FTA, 2.5 apg
There were six Mavs overall with better offensive ratings against Minnesota than what Doncic put up against OKC. The Timberwolves threw everything they could at Doncic and he torched them, as did everyone else. The fact that Irving, Washington, and Lively had higher offensive ratings against the Wolves is a testament to how much Doncic and the Mavs offense punishes defenses in rotation.
The Celtics playing Doncic straight up as much as possible could be painful as he scores and hits tough shots, but the Celtics need to make Doncic work hard for his points. This comes with the obvious caveat that you have to throw everything at Doncic over the course of the game to keep him off balance as much as you can. No player can be defended the same way the whole time, so Boston will have to mix in some blitzing when appropriate, some up-to-touch pick-and-roll coverage with rotations behind it, and some switching. But the bulk of the game should be a straight-up, no doubling, mano-a-mano defense.
There is also the element of defending Doncic with their offense by putting him (and Irving) in all of the actions Boston is running. Doncic and Irving have both been celebrated as defending better than ever, so I want to put that to the test by having them defend every possession they're on the floor.
They are either going to work harder than ever and get tired by the end of the game, or they're going to end up taking plays off on defense and Boston will cash in on the advantage.
“There is no stopping them,” Mazzulla said. “There's defending them at a high level and there's playing a complete game because every part of the game is connected.
The Celtics can throw Jaylen Brown on Doncic if they want to, but I think I’d rather see Jrue Holiday get the initial assignment. Doncic has had a lot of success against Holiday, but that's part of why I’m willing to give Holiday that assignment.
The reason why Doncic succeeds against Holiday is his size advantage. So if he wants to take Holiday into the post or try to shoot over him, that's fine with me. All I want Holiday to do is run Doncic off the 3-point line. I want Holiday up tight on Doncic on the perimeter to encourage the drive. Once Doncic is inside the 3-point line, I’m happy to let him pull up for tough mid-range shots all night long. To me, that means Doncic is taking the bait, taking tough 2-pointers, and not breaking the Celtics down with his passing.
Obviously, everyone is going to get a crack at Doncic, so everyone has to be ready to do a lot of the same things, but I’m fine with Holiday looking like he’s burnt toast out there. If he luring Doncic into isolation, then he’s doing his job and Boston can live with the results.
The Celtics have the offense to withstand a Doncic onslaught. They need to keep the rest of the Mavs somewhat in check. They can save the double teams for Irving, especially in the non-Luka minutes. This series isn’t about stopping Doncic, it’s about finding the five to 10 possessions in a game where Doncic is doing something uncharacteristic. Whether that's missing a shot, turning it over, or taking a play off, Boston just needs to swing enough of those possessions their way. That's the difference between winning and losing. Boston has enough guys to make that happen, they just need to stay disciplined for 48 minutes so they can find all of those swing possessions.