The Dallas Mavericks are heading to the NBA Finals after destroying the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Game 1 of the Finals will be Thursday night at 8:30 p.m. at TD Garden. All of the Finals games will be on ABC.
I’ll have a full preview coming up next week, but here are some quick thoughts on the upcoming Finals.
- Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are different. This will be a big defensive challenge and a much different one than the Pacers. Indiana’s strength is the chaos. Dallas’ strength is the star power. The Mavs are more predictable, daring you to stop Doncic and Irving. They can rise up over good defense and make plays, making it a test of not only your defensive discipline, but also of your mental strength.
The downside to their approach is that it’s often my turn/your turn, and if you can stay disciplined, you can make it tougher. I think the key will be trying to single-cover them as much as possible. The Celtics might try mixing in some hedging (the screen-setter’s defender steps out to briefly get into the ball-handler’s way, then gets back to the roll man when the screened player recovers back to his man) instead of switching in an effort to confuse Dallas.
- Dereck Lively requires attention: The plan that works best seems to be blitzing Doncic when Daniel Gafford is on the floor but try a different coverage to account for Lively’s passing. Doubling Luka with Lively on the floor means willingly getting into rotation, so you’d better be damn good at it if that's the game plan. The personnel on the floor when he’s in the game should be interesting because I think Jayson Tatum might be a good choice on him. I’ll have to look at that more closely.
- I’m calling for Doncic and Irving’s guy in every action. Boston’s biggest advantage is, like Martha Reeves and the Vandellas said, Luka and Kyrie have nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide. Dallas will have to figure something out, maybe a zone, maybe a pre-switch, to avoid those two getting put into a blender.
And yes, I’m aware that they're playing better defensively. In fact, I’m counting on it because all the extra effort they're expending on that end means there will be less later in the game. Dallas is better off leaning into their bad defensive traits, letting Boston think they have an advantage, and then baiting the Celtics into something that isn’t really there.
Whatever Dallas does, Boston should have an answer. Dallas gives up a ton of corner 3-pointers, so that drive-and-kick game had better be on point.
- Kristaps Porzingis will be a huge difference-maker. Dallas hasn’t had to deal with a threat like Porzingis. Yes, they just played Karl-Anthony Towns, but he’s his own worst enemy. Porzingis can work three levels of offense and is Boston’s third or fourth option as opposed to KAT being Minnesota’s second option.
The difference is that Dallas lived with whatever Minnesota got outside of Towns and Anthony Edwards. But with Boston, the “live with” option is Porzingis (and Derrick White, and Jrue Holiday), and that's a problem for them.
If Porzingis is ready to go right away, then the outlet he provides will be huge.
- I’m preparing for a week of people gassing up the Mavericks and questioning the Celtics. Somehow, the 64-win, top-two in offense and defense, 12-2 in the playoffs Celtics are going to have an “us against the world” chip on their shoulder.
The bottom line to me is that Dallas has weaknesses that can be attacked. A lot is going to be said about Boston’s road to the Finals, but the Mavs beat a Kawhii-less Clippers team, a super-young OKC team, and a Wolves team with a 22-year-old top option and an untrustworthy second option. Boston’s road was easier, but the Mavs caught some breaks along the way.
The Mavs will be Boston’s toughest test, but the Celtics will also be Dallas’ biggest test. The Mavs have the star power, but Boston has a lot more high-end depth and is better on both ends of the floor. I like Boston’s chances.