The Minnesota Timberwolves stayed alive in the Western Conference Finals last, prolonging their series at least a couple more days and, once again, leaving Boston to practice during a long layoff without knowing who their playoff opponent will be.
They had six days off before facing Miami, five before facing the Cavs, five more before Indiana, and now nine before Game 1 of the NBA Finals. If you count the off time between games, they will have had 37 days off and 14 games played before Game 1.
If the Mavs finish off the Wolves in five, they’ll get six days off. But each game that series gets extended lops two days off their rest and preparation time. The Celtics may not officially know who their opponent is, but they can safely get to work on preparing for Dallas while the Mavs. It’s a nice advantage to have, especially since Dallas is more predictable than the Pacers. The extra preparation allows Boston to get out of their Indiana habits and into the things Dallas does on both ends of the floor.
And this might be the most important thing to remember about the playoffs. Before we dive into the nitty-gritty of the series, everyone needs to accept that once a series ends, most of the stuff associated with it stays there. There isn’t as much if/then going on from one series to the next.
So the narrative of “if Boston is playing like this against Indiana how the hell are they gonna beat the Mavs?” is a false one.
Playoffs are very interesting because at some point in the series it stops being about how good your team is and...can you solve this very specific thing right now.
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) April 23, 2023
The first thing to consider is Boston’s own tendencies. Let’s just accept the “same ol’ Celtics” bit for the sake of conversation. I think it’s safe to say that, more often than not, Boston has shown up against the big teams. Their tendency to let down has always been with big leads or perceived lesser competition. I’ve written about how they couldn't handle prosperity a million times by now.
But against the best of the best? If anything, they’ve tried TOO hard. That's when Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum got sucked into defensive traps and turned the ball over five times apiece. That's when the ball movement died, the Celtics went iso, the shots missed, and opponents piled up runs against a slump-shouldered Boston team.
We haven't seen too much of those Celtics, have we? Brown’s turnover percentage in the playoffs is at 11.4%, the lowest since his sophomore season. Last year it was 14.2% and the previous year it was 13.4%. So his turnovers are pretty comfortably down. Tatum’s turnover percentage is at 9.5%, lower than all but three seasons ago and lower than it was in the regular season.
By comparison, Luka Doncic’s turnover rate is 13.3% and Kyrie Irving’s is 12.3%, so they are giving it up more often than Boston’s two stars.
So approaching this as if Boston is underwhelming and will continue to be against Luka, Kyrie, and the Mavs, in the NBA Finals, is as lazy as analysis gets. And considering how they’ve all bought in to Joe Mazzulla’s psychology of sports, I think they're able to avoid the other pitfalls they’ll face.
The other thing to keep in mind is the Mavs are not the Pacers. They both drive the ball, but in different ways. They are more predictable than the Pacers, so there are more tendencies to lean on. The Mavs lean on their star power and have the pieces around them to enhance those stars. The Pacers' offensive rating is six points higher than the Mavs but their defensive rating is seven points worse.
So the Celtics will have to come up with different ways to attack (presuming, of course, that there's no miracle comeback and Dallas finishes off this series).
Their game plan will just be different than it was against the Pacers. Dallas has not let teams get all the way to the rim in the playoffs. Their opponents are shooting 6% worse at the rim than the Pacers, which means a lot of Boston’s drives will have to be drive-and-kicks.
I can easily see a series where Boston attacks Doncic and Irving forcing help to step up and Dallas’ desire to protect the rim at all costs leading to the kick-outs or the swing passes off those kicks to open 3-pointers. The Mavs allow almost 11 corner 3-pointers per game in the playoffs. I can see Boston shooting 50 3-pointers a game or mixing in mid-rangers off Dallas closeouts.
Get used to it now. If you want to start pre-complaining about the number of 3-pointers Boston is taking, go for it now and get it out of your system.
The Celtics will certainly be mentally ready for this challenge. Everything they’ve been doing is leading up to this series and they’ve proven time and time again to be ready for the moment. Even their lapses, which have been frustrating, have been short-lived. They have the tools to finish this job, but it will look different than it has all playoffs.
That's how it’s supposed to go. Mazzulla is right about success looking different every series, every game, and even every possession. This might not resemble what we’ve seen so far, but all that matters is that Boston comes ready to play and they find a way to win four more games.