The Pacers offense is tough enough as it is. They easily find mismatches on the floor when they're presented and exploit them. Whether it’s Pascal Siakam in the post against a smaller defender, switching Obi Toppin onto Payton Pritchard near the basket, or hunting Al Horford with perimeter speed, the Pacers are going to be able to find spots to get the shots they want.
One key for Boston making Game 2 is eliminating the mistakes. Things like poor spacing and getting too focused on matchup hunting have to go away so the Pacers aren’t getting out in transition where they thrive.
It can't be this for Boston Celtics on offense. If you don't force Indiana to sustain defense or put pressure on them they will work to contain. pic.twitter.com/U6kPoVchkL
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) May 22, 2024
“I'd say 70% of what the mistakes that we made were execution issues,” Joe Mazzulla said. “And so that's the first step is to fix the execution … They're going to test your discipline, to execute on both ends of the floor over and over again. And so I know the easy answer is to be like, "Oh, go do something different, but you gotta execute and you gotta be disciplined. And I thought there were many moments of the game where we were disciplined, and then I think when we weren't, they were able to take advantage of that.”
There are simple things Boston can do, like stay focused defensively and see ball and man.
The Pacers move fast. This off-ball action has Horford and Sam Hauser in knots and it has Pritchard distracted. Ben Sheppard’s curl around the Aaron Nesmith screen might have been designed to get him a layup, but the pass was off. But that's no bother for TJ McConnell, who cuts when Pritchard’s head is turned to immediately get the ball and lay it in.
That's not about personnel, necessarily. That's about Horford and Hauser being confused, which pulled Hauser out of position and left him unable to help on the cut. It’s about Pritchard turning his head instead of positioning his body, allowing the cut in the first place. This is a preventable basket with some better discipline.
One mistake against the Pacers forces a chain reaction of them.
Pritchard is just standing and watching to start this clip, and then he bursts out to the perimeter when he realizes the pass is going to his man. I don’t know if he thought he was tagging Toppin rolling down the lane, but his recovery to Sheppard is out of control and he gets blown by.
Now it's a three-on-two, with Hauser forced to step up to Sheppard, Jrue Holiday following the ball out to Siakam, and no one on Toppin.
Boston had far too many undisciplined closeouts that led to blow-bys.
The Celtics allowed 128 points. I think that's probably the baseline of what we can expect. The question now is how many of those can Boston eliminate just by doing things better? Can they eliminate two or three baskets just by playing with better discipline in the half-court? Can they eliminate two or three by getting back on defense after a miss and preventing a couple of transition buckets? Can they eliminate two or three by executing better offense so they can go back and set their defense? Can they eliminate two or three just by protecting the ball and not making horrible passes?
If they can, that's at least 16 points they can shave off the 128 by simply being better. Holding the Pacers to 112 makes life a little easier because Boston should be able to put up big scoring numbers. The Pacers are going to test Boston with their creativity on offense. They move at such a fast pace that it’s going to be impossible to stop all of their actions. They will crack open even the toughest defense, which can be deflating. The Celtics have to stick with it
“It's basketball. Teams are going to get hot. Teams are going to play well. People going to play well,” Jaylen Brown said. “You gotta navigate that. Don't overreact to it. Don't get caught up in it, what you guys might say, think about it. It happens. It's just now you can't let it snowball, can't let it happen again. Can't let it happen multiple times."
Boston can try to make some adjustments with their personnel. They can try mixing in some Tatum at center, or going double-big if Xavier Tillman is back and able to eat up some minutes at center in a small lineup. I’m not going to argue the Celtics will score more than 133 because that's asking a lot. If they shoot better from 3, it might cut into their free throws, so I’d expect the point totals to stay around that range.
The key for Boston is to survive the great offense that Indiana runs and eliminate the mistakes they make to add to that. It’s impossible to eliminate them all, but there's a path to keeping the Pacers around 110. With Boston’s own amazing offense against a Pacers defense that allow a lot, there's a chance to get some separation and keep it.
Remember, Boston had leads of at least 10 in the first, second, and third quarters. They stopped executing their offense and the Pacers came back each time. What the Celtics need to do is maintain the discipline to keep running their offense without breaking off into “I got this” ball and then keeping their defensive discipline to get the simple stops they need to keep their own runs going.
“The theme of (the Pacers) is they generate a lot of chaos and noise, so to speak, because they want you to be scrambled as to what you're willing to live with and take away,” Mazzulla said. “The most important thing is making sure our team, our guys, our matchups, have a clear understanding of what is great defense regardless of the result and what is not good defense regardless of the result.
“And that's where this team tests you, because of their ability to put up, you know, 130, 140, 150, because of speed that they play. … this team just tests your risk management and it could be different every game. If you're down six to eight points, it's a much different type of defensive scheme than it is if it's tied or if you're up eight to 10 points. So the most important thing is the communication between our guys, our trust on what the matchup, what the coverage is and have a clear understanding of what we're willing to take away.”
