BOSTON CELTICS vs. INDIANA PACERS
Eastern Conference Finals
SCHEDULE
Game 1: Tuesday, 5/21, 8 p.m., ESPN
Game 2: Thursday, 5/23, 8 p.m., ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, 5/25, 8:30 p.m., ABC
Game 4: Monday, 5/27, 8 p.m., ESPN
*Game 5: Wednesday, 5/29, 8, ESPN
*Game 6: Friday, 5/31, 8, ESPN
*Game 7: Sunday, 6/2, 8, ESPN
*If Necessary. Home Road
DEPTH CHART
Boston
Guards: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Svi Mykhailiuk, Jaden Springer
Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Oshae Brissett, Jordan Walsh
Bigs: Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta, Kristaps Porzingis
Indiana
Guards: Tyrese Haliburton, TJ McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Ben Sheppard, Quentin Jackson
Wings: Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Isaiah Jackson, Kendall Brown, Doug McDermott, Jarace Walker, Jalen Smith, Benedict Mathurin
Bigs: Myles Turner, Obi Toppin
INJURIES
Boston: Kristaps Porzingis (calf, out to start series)
Indiana: Benedict Mathurin (shoulder, out for series)
HOW BOSTON WINS
On offense: Boston has a real chance to put up some big point totals, but they have to be smart about it. There might be an inclination to slow things down against the Pacers because Indy likes to play fast, but that's wrong. The key is to play at a good pace and keep the Pacers out of transition. Boston can play fast because that's the path to making shots, and making shots will naturally slow Indiana down. And teams that like to play fast on offense don’t necessarily like to play fast on defense.
The Celtics will target Haliburton and Nembhard, but they have to make sure they're doing so early enough in the shot clock to get to a second action if the first one doesn’t work. Boston can’t just fall into isolation when the first action doesn’t work. Go to a second one, or maybe try the first one again and keep attacking the weak defenders.
The Pacers' defense isn’t just weak because a few guys aren’t the best on-ball defenders. It’s weak because when they're forced to make decisions, they find themselves out of position. They don’t commit to defensive principles, and things like weak rotations or lazy double teams will give up easy buckets. So don’t let them off the hook by just going one-on-one against a favorable mismatch. Make them move and burn some energy on defense so they have less to give on offense.
The Celtics can also find their way to some second-chance points against Indy. The Pacers' defensive rebounding percentage is only 68%, 14th in the playoffs compared to Boston’s playoff-best 80%. The Knicks averaged 12.6 offensive rebounds per game against Indy, so those are available. The Celtics corner-crashing guards have a chance to keep possessions alive and pile up the attempts.
I expect the Pacers to borrow from the Cavaliers' game plan and dare Horford to be the biggest threat from deep. The Celtics will be able to drive and get into the teeth of the defense. The question will be whether they’re attacking the rim when Turner is stuck guarding Horford on the perimeter, or driving and kicking when Turner decides to leave Horford to help. Boston can combat that by trying to get a guard cross-matched onto Turner so he has to respect that kick-out. They can also just accept what the Pacers are doing and just expect Horford to hit the shots.
Horford doesn’t have to shoot all of those shots. One counter I’d go to is flowing right into a dribble handoff or a pitch-and-chase to give someone like White or Holiday the open look. If a defender is going to sag that far off Horford, then he can just turn, pitch it to White, set a screen for White’s guy, and let the better shooter get the shot. With Horford’s man sagging way off, that’ll be a clean look that forces the Pacers to stay close to Horford.
If they adjust to that, then Horford just goes into a short roll and picks the defense apart by collapsing it at the nail, swinging it Tatum or Brown on the other corner, and letting that guy either shoot or drive against a scrambling defense.
If Turner is too deep in help, Horford can punish the Pacers with more than just shooting. Boston should be ready for that.
The other key for Boston’s offense is protecting the ball. Boston is generally a low-turnover team this season, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have their moments. The Pacers, especially Haliburton, thrive on those kinds of mistakes, so don’t add any fuel to their offensive fire by handing them transition opportunities.
“I think just offensively just making sure you get a shot up every time, especially if you turn it over and they're able to get out and run, make things difficult,” White said. “Then, just try to use our physicality and just try to slow them down as much as possible. It's gonna be a challenge to get up and down and we like to do it as well, so it's gonna be fun.”
On defense: The offense and defense are intertwined because shot-making is the best defense against the Pacers. Protecting the ball and making shots prevents a lot of Indiana’s transition, but not all of it, so Boston has to concentrate on getting back on every possession.
This is especially true when McConnell is in the game. He and Pritchard are so similar in their ability to change energy, hit big shots, and generally be pests. The Celtics can’t let up at all or else they’ll fall victim to Pacers runs out of nowhere, even on nights where it seems that they don’t have it.
And when those runs happen, Boston simply has to keep their wits about them. The Pacer will test Boston’s mental toughness with their ability to hit ridiculous shots. There will be times when the Celtics play good defense and the Pacers still score. Indiana will go on runs. Boston has to stay focused when it happens.
"The majority of it is just navigating emotion,” Jaylen Brown said “I feel like you'll always have a chance to win if you don't get caught up in the emotion of the game, emotion of the crowd and emotion of the media or whatever it goes. Just come out and play each and every possession with the best intentions possible. Come ready to fight every single night, every single possession. And I feel like we'll be in a good spot. That's what I say to my team is just navigate our emotions as best we can."
It’s going to be important to trust the game plan against Indiana and remember that this is a seven-game series.
“Teams are going to get hot. Teams are going to play well. People going to play well. You gotta navigate that,” Brown said. “Don't overreact to it. Don't get caught up in it, what you guys might say, think about it. It happens. It's just now you can't let it snowball, can't let it happen again. Can't let it happen multiple times. Obviously, if it does, it's going to be out there if a team shoots well or the Celtics lose, just gotta stay even-keeled. Navigate the waters as best you can and you get back and come ready to fight the next day. Teams still gotta beat you four out of seven."
There will be stretches where what Boston will live with is burning them. There will be stretches where something is just destroying them and the Celtics have to have the discipline to challenge what’s happening without overreacting to what’s happening.
HOW INDIANA WINS
The Pacers are the kind of team Joe Mazzulla hates to face. They are more willing to shoot 3-pointers than either Miami or Cleveland, and they have enough guys who can get super-hot where a 15-4 run can come out of nowhere like a Randy Orton RKO.
No lead is safe against Indiana. I don’t care if it’s up to 30 with five minutes to go, the Pacers' willingness to fire away with impunity means it’s not over until it’s over.
The bottom line is Indiana is going to have to outscore the Celtics to win. The Celtics need to be prepared for the Pacers to test the limits of long-range bombing.
“You have to just have a clear understanding of what types of shots you're willing to live with, and which ones they’re going to get,” Mazzulla said. “They're gonna score and they're gonna shoot. So I think it's managing the ones that you're willing to live with, and being very clear what you have to take away. Because with a team like this and the threats that they have and the way they play, you can't take away everything. But you can be very disciplined in the things that you want to take away.”
The Pacers are also a drive-heavy team, averaging 51.4 per game (third in the playoffs) and 28 points off those drives (fifth in the playoffs). The question for Indiana is whether they can afford to get into a game of trading three for two. They're going to have to match the Boston math, which might mean a shift in shot distribution. If the Celtics can negate the math by baiting the Pacers into 2-point territory, they can keep the math in their favor.
HOW IT WILL GO
This is going to be a tougher test than the first two series, even though this is the lowest seed of the bunch. The Pacers are the exact kind of offense that gives Boston some trouble because there's less predictability to it.
“They don’t have a predictable spacing, so as they’re starting to drive and kick and screen and move you can lose sight of guys,” Mazzulla said. “You end up putting two on the ball, two on the cutter, over-helping and you get those wide-open shots. I’d venture to say it’s mixed between their transition, but also their ability to kind of play without a script on the offensive end, which creates some of that indecision in that communication. So that’s where the test comes in, No. 1, kind of get back in transition initially and then also in the half court. Our individual defense has to be disciplined, our weak-side defense has to be disciplined.”
The Celtics are much better, though, and as long as they run their own offense with good pace, I think they’ll be just fine. I think there is a risk of Boston getting too caught up in matchup hunting, and that’ll be up to Mazzulla and the coaching staff to solve.
Boston simply needs to make shots and protect the ball. That will keep the Pacers out of transition and give the Celtics the defensive edge they need to win this series. I do have a fear that Indiana will believe they're playing with found money and play a free-flowing style that makes the Celtics struggle. I feel like there's a chance the Celtics are on their heels at some point early on and they’ll need to dig down and adjust.
I trust this year’s group to do that. I also don’t trust the Pacers to stay disciplined enough defensively to slow Boston down much. It took a little luck for them to get this far and I think that part of this equation is going to run out. The Pacers are perfect at home and Boston is perfect on the road. The Pacers are not perfect on the road. This will be tough for them.
Boston will be favored in every game of this series, so a sweep isn’t out of the question, though I don’t expect it. A wild shooting variance game will go in Indiana’s favor at least once this series, as will a bad Boston shooting night. If they happen on the same day, Boston can win it in five. I’m going to say they happen separately.
Celtics in 6.