BOSTON CELTICS vs. MIAMI HEAT
Eastern Conference Playoffs Round 1
Schedule:
Game 1: Sunday, 4/21, 1 p.m., ABC
Game 2: Wednesday, 4/24, 7 p.m., TNT/NBCS Boston
Game 3: Saturday, 4/27, 6 p.m., TNT/NBCS Boston
Game 4: Monday, 4/29, TBD
*Game 5: Wednesday, 5/1, TBD
*Game 6: Friday, 5/3, TBD
*Game 7: Sunday, 5/5, TBD
*If Necessary. Home Road
DEPTH CHART
BOSTON:
Guards: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Svi Mykhailiuk, Jaden Springer
Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, Oshae Brissett, Jordan Walsh
Bigs: Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Xavier Tillman, Neemias Queta
MIAMI:
Guards: Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, Delon Wright, Patty Mills
Wings: Jamie Jaquez Jr, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Haywood Highsmith
Bigs: Bam Adebayo, Kevin Love, Nikola Jovic, Thomas Bryant, Orlando Robinson
INJURIES:
Boston: Luke Kornet (Calf, out Game 1)
Miami: Jimmy Butler (MCL, out for series), Terry Rozier (Neck, out Game 1, possibly longer), Duncan Robinson (Back, day-to-day), Josh Richardson (Shoulder, out for season).
HOW BOSTON WINS
This series is less about game-planning for Miami and more about Boston’s own execution. We can save the wrinkles and tricks for a team that will be tough to beat.
The biggest challenge for Boston will be their mentality. The two words I’ve latched onto this postseason are “methodical” and “ruthless.” If Boston can be both of those, they will be fine, especially against Miami.
The Heat have a lot of attackable players, but this can’t just be a one-on-one, mismatch-hunting four games. If Miami is switching, then fine, attack the mismatch. If they're trying something else, either blitzing or zone, then be willing to give the ball up to a more advantageous situation.
The Heat have a knack for being a bit of a Venus flytrap defensively. They will dangle the mismatch for Tatum or Brown to chase, and then hit them with late help to force turnovers. If the Celtics can stay wise to that plan, move the ball, and trust each other to make plays, then there's no way they can be defended.
Joe Mazzulla loves to say success will look different on different nights, and that will be true in this series as the Heat try anything and everything to get stops. If the Celtics can stay focused, run the appropriate offense against whatever the Heat try defensively, and play methodical basketball for a full 48, they will win this series easily.
HOW MIAMI WINS
Miami can’t get to Boston’s level, so they're going to have to drag the Celtics down to theirs. This is going to be about psychological warfare.
“We’ve got to expect them to be ultra-aggressive, ultra-handsy, and trying to do all the little dirty things they can – not dirty things but like, to mess up the game a little bit,” Porzingis said at the team’s Saturday practice. “We have to be ready for that. It’s gonna be a war.”
The Celtics are aware, but will they be prepared for it?
Elbows will find kidneys, jerseys will be pulled, arms will be grabbed … Miami will test every boundary there is and put the adage “you can’t call everything” to the test. The Celtics tend to be bothered by uncalled fouls, so they have to keep their wits about them and power through the muck.
The Heat will try a lot of different defenses, probably saving their zone for when Porzingis is off the floor and Boston has fewer options to beat it. It shouldn’t matter much, but Porzingis is Boston’s zone-buster. They might try Adebayo on Holiday so he can roam defensively and dare him to hit 3-pointers because he’s struggled with that shot in playoffs past.
They will do everything in their power to confuse the Celtics. Even if they do, they’ll still need to get some kind of outlier shooting night from someone like Martin or Jaquez. They’ll need to play fast offensively and hope whoever gets the open shots can hit them.
They’ll probably also crash the boards more than usual because that's how teams stay close when Boston plays unfocused basketball. A key for Miami keeping it close and stealing a game will be winning the possession battle and getting up significantly more shots. Winning the rebounding battle will be a big part of building a big lead.
HOW IT WILL GO
I understand the PTSD Celtics fans have. History tells us a Miami-Boston series will be a slog. Even when Boston has been favored, even heavily favored, Miami finds a way to make it tough.
And that may happen here. I don’t think it will, but we can’t rule anything out in the playoffs. The Celtics seem to understand that, they accept it, and they appear ready to handle whatever is coming their way.
I think this will be the first true revelation that things really are different here, as their tagline for this season claims. I think the Heat are a perfect first round opponent to show the doubters that the team is better constructed, better coached, and more mature than they were in years past. I think the Celtics putting a decisive series together and dispatching the Heat in short order might get some people to actually admit this team is not what they were in years past.
Boston is a flat-out better team, and that was true with Butler being healthy. Without him, the Celtics are better at every position on the floor except center, and that's not that wide of a margin. Erik Spoelstra is an all-time great coach, but coaching can only get a team so far.
The Celtics have answers all over the floor. If Miami goes to their zone, Boston can beat it. If they play man, Boston can exploit it. If they try something to take Tatum or Brown away, Boston’s next three or four guys are still much better than whichever four Heat are on the floor.
I’ve believed this Celtics team is ready for this moment from day one. I think they prove it in this series.
Celtics in four.