Wrapping up free agency previews and continuing with the NFL notebook. Legal tampering officially starts March 11 at 12:00 p.m and continues until March 13 at 4 p.m.
Who will play quarterback for the 2023-24 New England Patriots? Kirk Cousins? No shot. Baker Mayfield? Unless something dramatic happens, he's not coming here either. Trade for Justin Fields? I'm all set. The Pats need their picks and should be stockpiling more for what they should be approaching as a multi-year rebuild. That is why I'm drafting one, preferably at #3, while also adding a veteran who is good enough that Jerod Mayo never falls into the trap of playing the kid QB earlier than needed.
So who is that?
Jacoby Brissett or Gardner Minshew. That's it. That's the list.
Both are flawed players. Both are replaceable. But both have started a bunch of games throughout their careers - Brissett 48, Minshew 37 - and understand, at this point in their careers, they're caretakers or bridges to the next guy. That's important. Bailey Zappe isn't thinking that way. Mac Jones is a first-rounder (and working on no-look passes. Read the room, bro). Yes, you want the vet to keep the heat on the kid QB, but you also want him to make sure that QB room is a safe space, a place to learn and grow. What it's been the last year-plus is the opposite of that: a toxic pit.
1. Brissett, Commanders: In brief work last year, Brissett was ridiculously efficient. That's not who he's been in his NFL career. But he knows how to operate in the pocket, is tough, and has experience in the Kevin Stefanski/Alex Van Pelt offense. Plus, he took Sam Howell under his wing last season in D.C. Sign me up.
PFF estimates $6.5 million for one year. I could see it being a couple of million higher.
2. Minshew, Colts: His arm isn't much better than Mac's, and he can be skittish. When that happens, his base gets screwed up, and he misses throws he shouldn't. That part is not great. But Minshew is accurate with the underneath stuff and generally shows patience. Plus, guys play for him - they did in Jacksonville and again in Indy - which is something Jones couldn't say the last year-plus in Foxborough.
Spotrac estimates two years and $10.7 million. PFF is richer: $17.5 million ($9 million guaranteed) for two seasons.
Best of the rest: Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Tyrod Taylor (Giants), Drew Lock (Seahawks).
WHAT I'M HEARING
I've been working the phones over the last 72 hours, trying to understand how the start of the legal tampering period may go.
Some nuggets to share:
- The current price tag on Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed is a first-round pick. Philly at #22, Green Bay at #25, Detroit at #29, and Baltimore at #30 could make some sense. Now, you may be asking yourself why KC would move off Sneed? The reasons are threefold. Money, Chris Jones, and the organization's belief that they can find another CB in the draft. The cash outlay and Jones work hand-in-hand. The Chiefs know Jones is the lynchpin to their defense, and he, too, is a free agent. They want to ensure they get him done, which will be costly.
- The Dolphins would love to keep Christian Wilkins, but they have needs elsewhere (interior offensive line, for starters), and with their cap situation, they couldn't risk tagging him. Daron Payne was guaranteed $55 million at signing, the most ever for a defensive tackle. Expect Wilkins to be north of that.
- Saquon Barkley will be in demand even as a lowly running back (I hate that narrative). He's not going to come close to touching the Christian McCaffrey's contract ($38 mil in practical guarantees), but some I spoke with believe he'll climb higher than the 3-years/$42 million that Jonathan Taylor got last fall. Nick Caserio and the Houston Texans are lurking.
- Baker Mayfield's deal may not be as rich as he hoped, especially if Kirk Cousins ends up in Atlanta, which is the consensus. And no, the Vikes don't appear interested in Mayfield as the replacement. Those I talked to wonder if Cousins walks away and how that will impact the Justin Jefferson negotiations. Jefferson is on record as saying he wants Captain Kirk back.
- No one views Calvin Ridley as a number one wide receiver, but they believe he'll get paid like one, especially considering the tags for Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman and the extension for Mike Evans. The Pats were often mentioned as a suitor.
- With Antoine Winfield off the market, Xavier McKinney (Giants) is the consensus top choice as safety #1. Last year that would have gotten him around $14+ million per season. With so many safeties hitting free agency this year, McKinney could get squeezed a little. Quandre Diggs (31) is still playing at a high level, and Justin Simmons (30) is as well. If a team wants a shorter-term commitment, those guys might jump ahead of McKinney, who desires a long-term deal (as he should).
- If you want JuJu Smith-Schuster or Devante Parker, they can be yours for the low, low price of a bag of balls and not much more. Parker might have some value to a team if they whiff in free agency and the draft.
BILLS COME DUE
It was a wild Wednesday in Buffalo.
The Bills cut a half-dozen players, including three members of their core: Jordan Poyer, Mitch Morse, and Tre'Davious White. That's a lot of playoff games and high-level play. But facing a salary cap hole of $40 million, GM Brandon Beane knew big moves had to be made, and he didn't hesitate.
In addition, Beane re-worked the deals of both Rasul Douglas and Von Miller (lowering his number by $8.5 mil), re-upped safety Taylor Rapp, and inked backup QB Mitchell Trubisky to a second tour of duty in Buffalo.
So what does it mean?
Maybe not what you think. Of the six cuts, Morse is the only one whose level of play has yet to drop off. Poyer wasn't nearly the same player a season ago: his free-agent tour in 2023 was so lifeless he ended up back with the Bills, which was not his first or second choice. White has suffered devastating injuries in two of the last three years - an ACL and an Achilles. His cut is being designated as a post-June 1, so while the move will save over $10 mil in total, only $6 mil will be available before that date.
Look, there's no question the Bills may take a hit in the short term, but their books are not only clean for 2024 - a Josh Allen planned restructure will carve out another $23 million - but also in excellent shape for 2025 and 2026. So don't go throwing dirt on their AFC East supremacy just yet.
LET'S RIDE (RIGHT INTO THE ABYSS)
Is the Russell Wilson trade the worst in NFL history?
After surrendering five draft picks and three players - and giving Wilson $246 million over five seasons ($124 million guaranteed at signing) - the Denver Broncos informed the quarterback of his release earlier this week, just two years into their union. That means the team will take an unprecedented $85 million dead cap hit, the most in NFL history. That's brutal even for someone like me, who thinks the cap is merely a suggestion.
During that time, the Broncos won just 11 of Wilson's 30 starts—$11.27 million per victory—then publicly feuded with the quarterback to get him to move off of, adjust, or waive a $37 million injury waiver in his contract. What's amusing about that is that GM George Paton was the one who signed Wilson to the extension post-trade and, therefore, agreed to that clause. Brilliant. Can someone tell me how Paton is still employed?
Wilson issued a statement on social media, thanking damn near everybody, including the lunch lady. But he left out Paton and head coach Sean Payton. It'd make for a tremendous tell-all book or feature story, but if you know Wilson and how desperate he is to say almost nothing of consequence, we might have to wait a while for the real juice.
As an aside, in researching some terrible trades, here's one that stood out to me as completely illogical: the Bears giving up a first-round pick for Rick Mirer in 1997. In his four previous seasons in Seattle, Mirer had performed nothing like a competent NFL QB, throwing 56 interceptions to just 41 touchdowns. And yet some genius in Chicago thought they should surrender a first? Holy hell. Again, it wasn't a deal involving many picks and players, like Wilson's, but it was a fleecing all the same. Chicago's general manager at the time was a guy named Mark Hatley. I never heard of him. I wonder why...
By the way, the Bears went 19-45 during his four-year tenure.