If you were hoping to grab a quarterback in the second round or eyeing a possible trade back into the first round for one of the Bo Nix or Michael Penix duo, the results of Senior Bowl week didn't help your cause. That's not to say that one of those players - and/or J.J. McCarthy - can't or won't go in round one - but instead of solidifying that possibility, they only weakened it.
Nix struggled under center, his decision-making was inconsistent, and his accuracy was spotty. In some evaluators' eyes, the Oregon QB had a chance to jump into the top 10. It didn't go that way. I'm told he interviewed very well - no surprise - but the football part didn't go as planned.
"I wanted to see more," said one front office exec. "It's not an easy week (editor's note: the QBs and WRs/TEs have to learn each other on the fly), but it didn't stop (Spencer) Rattler from settling in as things progressed. Nix never got there."
As for Penix, he was better than Nix - which isn't saying as much as you might like - but there was disappointment that he didn't play in the game.
"He wasn't lights out during practices," said one NFC scout whose team needs a quarterback. "I would have liked to see him step up to that challenge. At least Nix played a couple of series (and threw a TD pass)."
Penix's medicals will be of great importance. In addition to the two ACL surgeries, he had a pair of shoulder injuries. If there are any red flags, he could plummet out of not just round one but two as well.
"Love his arm," said another exec whose team is also in the QB market. "Love the ball placement, especially when he's in rhythm (saw that on day one in Mobile). If he's healthy, I like him somewhere in round two."
Another question arose when I talked to those in Mobile about Penix, and that's the quality of receivers he was surrounded by. Rome Odunze looks increasingly like a top-10 pick, Ja'Lynn Polk is a day-two pick with #1 receiver upside, and Jalen McMillan is likely a round-three guy. Depending on where Penix ends up, he could find himself in a Mac Jones-like situation, with better talent surrounding him in college than the pros. But unlike Jones, Penix has a higher caliber arm.
As for McCarthy, he helped himself more by not being here than he probably would have had he shown up. The Michigan National Championship-winning quarterback passed on the chance to show out in Mobile and, with the other two big names scuffling, may have solidified a spot at the top of tier 2, QB-wise. Where will that land him? Atlanta (#8), Minnesota (11), Las Vegas (13), Seattle (16), LA Rams (19), Pittsburgh (20), and Tampa Bay (26) have all been sniffing around signal callers in this draft, in addition to the top 3 teams.
"He's such a good athlete, and he shows the kind of toughness and leadership you want from the position," an assistant coach on one of the Senior Bowl's staff told me of McCarthy. "A winning player."
Another thing to consider about the QBs in this year's draft is that next year's class isn't nearly as highly touted. Now, there's always a name or three that elevate throughout the season, but for every one of those, there's a Riley Leonard, Cam Ward, and Will Rodgers, who had some first-round buzz last season, and then everyone realized that they aren't that, at least not now, maybe ever. All hit the transfer portal and will ply their trades at different schools in the fall (Notre Dame, Miami, and Washington, respectively). You have to think ahead, especially at that position.
As for the other signal callers at the Senior Bowl, the consensus was Spencer Rattler, then Michael Pratt, and a massive dropoff to Joe Milton, Carter Bradley, and Sam Hartman. As one college scout said to me, "Those guys (Milton/Bradley/Hartman) will all be in someone's camp, but the only reason they'll get drafted is because day three is going to be filled with a bunch of players who normally would be undrafted free agent types but because of NIL (Name Image and Likeness) a slew of draftable guys stayed in college. It's a new world."