Before I dive into the playoff games, I have some thoughts in my loose-leaf notebook - minus the Trapper Keeper (remember those?) - that I didn't hit on in the aftermath of a busy two weeks.
- I wanted more out of Jerod Mayo's first official press conference as head coach of the New England Patriots, ok? Sue me. I didn't expect it - I said as much during my regularly scheduled TV spot on NBC Sports Boston the day before - but I kept the door slightly ajar in my head. It wasn't bad - call it a solid single to right-center - but it was largely superficial or, if you've been on just about zoom availability that Mayo has had over the last few years like yours truly - a restating of his previous positions. Which is fine. This was his first State of the Union and drew more eyes than probably all those conversations prior. Establishing a baseline made sense. But...just give me a little taste of the offensive philosophy (I'm not concerned with the other side of the ball yet). Mayo knew this day would come - perhaps not as soon as a week ago - but I find it hard to believe that a man of considerable intelligence doesn't know - or at least have a good idea - how he wants his team to play, and couldn't figure out a way to communicate that without surrendering state secrets.
- "As I said, this is the first time in a quarter of a century we had to make major changes, and we want to see what we have in-house, look what's out there in the marketplace, and then do what we think is right," said Robert Kraft. "I know people have ideas, but I can just assure you, any decision we make at this time will be to try to give the support to Jerod and put the organization in the best position it can to win games. We don't have a fixed formula. We're going to do -- we know what's worked for us in the past, and that's what we're going to do here in the future." Here are a couple of thoughts on this quote: 1) Bill Belichick was such an overwhelming presence in so many areas that the Krafts might not know what they have in the front office. However, I believe there was plenty of politicking over the last couple of years for them to have a good feel for who's capable of what and who shares whatever vision RK/JK has for their franchise. 2) Obviously, Kraft wants to put Mayo in the best position to succeed but to say what worked in the past is what they will do in the future set off alarm bells. It stopped working. 29-38 over the last four years. Bill was the head chef, but he wasn't the only one cooking. Ownership must be willing to accept its share of the blame, and if they don't, we could be doing this all over again in a few years. No one who cares about the team should want that.
- Disappointed for Bill O'Brien, who departed for Ohio State late Thursday night. He signed a multi-year contract to lead the Pats' offense into the future, and almost nothing went right from the start. Just think about this offseason "gifts" he was presented with: JuJu Smith-Schuster and his bad knee, a luxury player in Mike Gesicki who didn't check off any box this team needed, and then watching Belichick/Groh finish off that piece de resistance by throwing money at Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson to "fix" the tackle spot. That should have had O'Brien examining the language of his deal right then and there. Remarkably, it got worse. The offensive line wasn't healthy until sometime in September, Mac Jones went south that same month, and Bailey Zappe was deemed unplayable until they couldn't take Mac's mistakes any longer. But as with Belichick, the results matter, and you don't survive 13.9 points per game.
THE TIME IS NOW
Lamar Jackson has been brilliant this year and is the odds-on-favorite to win his 2nd NFL MVP. He led the Ravens to the number-one seed in the AFC for the first time since 2019. Of course, Jackson hopes this season plays out differently. The Ravens lost to Titans 28-12 in the Divisional Round, despite Jackson throwing for 365 and running for 143, and haven't advanced past that round since, unheard of at the time.
"I believe we're going to be better this time around," said Jackson.
He better hope so because next year's Ravens team may look a hell of a lot different, both from a roster perspective and on the coaching staff.
Roster-wise, Jackson's big contract kicks in, which may squeeze out several vital pieces in their walk years (Justin Madubuike, Patrick Queen, Gus Edwards, and Geno Stone). Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald had five head coaching interviews during the team's bye week, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken took a pair. In other words, the band may be breaking up, so now's the time.
There's also Jackson's place in history. He's just 1-3 in the playoffs (he didn't play in last year's game), and if he/Baltimore can't find a way to get it done this weekend, he'll become just the third quarterback to be one-and-done as a number one seed multiple times, joining Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.
"He's locked in," said Monken of Jackson. "This is what you spend the offseason, training camp, then all the work you put in during the year to put yourself in this position. It's a one-game season."
Jackson and the Ravens have had some of the biggest, most emphatic regular season wins this year - beating back Detroit, Seattle, and Miami when all those teams were rolling. But none of it will matter if they don't keep it rolling in the postseason. They should get a boost with the return of tight end Mark Andrews (broken ankle) - UPDATE, HE'S BEEN RULED OUT - and it appears Dalvin Cook will be elevated to the game-day roster (he asked for and was granted his release by the Jets weeks ago).
This weekend will be a challenge. The Houston Texans don't know what they don't know, curb-stomping the Browns during Super Wild Card weekend. That's led to even more national attention for a team deserving in their worst-to-first climb.
"A lot more people. Wow," remarked C.J. Stroud when he stepped up the podium earlier this week. Stroud became the youngest QB in NFL history to start and win a playoff game (22 years & 102 days old, breaking Michael Vick's record of 22 years and 192 days).
Stroud has been the truth, coming a long way from his week one performance against these same Ravens, a 25-9 loss. He and Jackson were the only two signal callers to average more than 1.5 touchdown passes per game and less than .5 interceptions in 2023.
"His growth - where he's shown the most to me - his calm and his confidence," said DeMeco Ryans. "His demeanor and how he's grown as a leader has really stepped up big time for us. And when we need him most, I feel like just throughout the entire season now at this moment, he's the leader we need him to be, he's the player we need him to be."
One thing to watch - neither the Ravens nor Texans blitz a lot - but Jackson and Stroud are two of the top three QB passers rating-wise when facing four rushers or less.
This is my favorite matchup of the weekend. To quote Pete Carroll, I'm jacked and pumped.
LOVE IS IN THE AIR
The second Saturday is Green Bay at San Francisco. The 49ers are the top seed and the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and the week off certainly should benefit Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Trent Williams (body).
But Jordan Love (21 TDs, 1 INT since week 11) has been on fire, and he and head coach/play caller Matt LaFleur absolutely humiliated Dan Quinn and that Dallas Cowboys defense last weekend (side note: how many times did you see receivers running wide-ass open in that game? Embarrassing). Love took a seat early in the 4th quarter, up 48-16, throwing for 272 yards and three scores.
"He's really good at going through his reads, playing the offense to a tee," said Nick Bosa of Love. "We definitely need to stop the run. I don't think many teams have made him uncomfortable yet. So stopping the run and covering up those easy open guys is something we have to do."
To Bosa's point, Aaron Jones has come back from what looked like a season-ending knee injury late in the year to run as well as he has all year. Jones leads the NFL with 476 rush yards since Week 16, helping to balance out that dynamic attack.
San Fran's offense is just as frightening, if not more so, than Green Bay's. The Niners were second in total offense, third in rushing, and third in points per game. They are virtually unstoppable in the red zone, scoring touchdowns at a 67.2% clip. Kyle Shanahan has the NFL's pass yards/att leader (Brock Purdy), the RB yards/carry leader (McCaffrey), and the TE yards/rec leader (George Kittle) on the same offense in 2023.
"To be the best, you have to beat the best," said Packers edge rusher Preston Smith, channeling his inner Ric Flair.
"We know we're going against one of the elite teams in the National Football League, certainly the class of the NFC," LaFleur said. "They've got a lot of the same players they've had for a few years now, and they've added some other freak shows over there. We know it's a great challenge, but it's a great opportunity, as well."
IF AT FIRST YOU DON'T SUCCEED...
Top overall picks Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield will square off in Detroit Sunday, although neither is with the team that drafted them.
Goff was the #1 pick in 2016 by the Rams and got them to a Super Bowl a few years later (I'm sure you remember that one) before getting dealt to the Lions in the Matthew Stafford trade.
Meanwhile, Mayfield (#1 in 2018) is on his 4th team, joining the Buccaneers this offseason, but he's back to "feeling dangerous," piloting Tampa to an easy playoff win over defending NFC champion Philadelphia on Monday. The former Oklahoma star threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns in that win, earning plaudits from Goff this week.
"He's had a hell of a career, and him being able to find himself in a place that feels like home to him and playing as well as he has, particularly late in this year, him getting hot and doing what he's done," said Goff. "It's been fun to watch, and I'm a fan of his."
That QB lovefest is mutual.
"Coming from somebody that needed a fresh start as well, Jared's a stud," said Mayfield. "I think he's playing really well. You can tell his leadership —. all the things why he got chosen so high. He's truly showing that now. Not every fit is perfect, and for him, I think you see his confidence grow."
These two teams met in mid-October, and the Lions controlled the affair, winning 20-6. Mayfield had a couple of deep shots to Mike Evans that he just missed, summing up a frustrating day.
"We'll look back at the tape once we get into the game plan stuff," said Mayfield earlier this week. "We are very different than we were early in the year, and that's something to be proud of. We've continued to improve."
The Lions are riding high, earning their first playoff win in 31 years, and Ford Field was a wall of sound, with Rams players telling former teammate Mayfield it was the loudest place they've played in. This will be a classic case of the Bucs needing to weather an early emotional storm, highlighting the need for the quarterback to take care of the football.
His counterpart has done an excellent job of that, but he'll face a different kind of defense Sunday. Todd Bowles will have the Bucs blitzing coming off the bus. Guess who doesn't fare well when pressured? Yeah, it's Goff. The difference between his passer rating when not pressured and when pressured is the largest dropoff in the NFL in 2023 (per Next Gen Stats), going from 117 to 61.7. If Tampa can turn up the heat, they could be in an excellent position to play in their first NFC Championship game since a fella named Tom Brady led them there in the Covid season.
ROAD WARRIORS?
The Chiefs will play a road playoff game for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' pro career, visiting Buffalo on Sunday. The only playoff games he's played outside of Arrowhead were Super Bowl LIV, LV, and LVII. Not too shabby.
It'll be yet another Mahomes versus Josh Allen moment - the third time in the last four postseasons - and that has drawn comparisons to the Brady vs Peyton Manning rivalry.
"We've played in a lot of big games," said Mahomes. "I'm excited for the challenge. I grew up watching those (Brady-Manning) games and remember how many memories I have from that, and hopefully we can play in these great games as well and give memories to the kids that come up behind us."
"He's not an easy matchup for any team," said Allen. "I've got a lot of respect for him and his game."
Allen and the Bills have been so damn good in Orchard Park, winning eight of nine this season, but also historically, with Allen 5-0 in the playoffs (vs. 1-3 on the road). It was quite a scene there this past weekend, with a blizzard dumping so much snow in Buffalo that the NFL had to move the game back a day, then not having enough time to shovel out the seats. That led to snowball celebrations, of which there were many in the 31-17 victory. The biggest came when Allen turned a scramble into a 52-yard touchdown. His willingness to run more has partly fueled this late-season run under interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
"I think when you try to hold Josh Allen back, you're probably doing a disservice," said Brady this week.
He's right, and despite two-plus years of Sean McDermott calling for his quarterback to run less and expose himself to less contact, under Brady, the Bills have re-embraced it, and it's a big reason why they're still playing.
"To me, when you put that tape on, and he's running, and the way he makes people miss at 6'5" or whatever he is - I don't know where you've ever seen that," said Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo, "He could probably play fullback in this league, tight end, right? Probably an offensive tackle, a defensive end, a linebacker, and be an All-Pro at all of them. I'm not kidding."
Meanwhile, the Bills' defense will be charged with slowing down Mahomes but will have to do it without their best linebacker, Terrel Bernard, who was one of several starters on that side of the ball to be lost in the Steelers' playoff win because of injury. Just add him to a list that already includes Matt Milano (leg), Tre'Davious White (Achilles), and Jordan Phillips (wrist) on IR. Also, keep an eye on corner Taron Johnson, who has been in concussion protocol all week.