We’re a little more than a third of the way through the season. At this point we have a pretty good idea of what’s going on with each team, but it’s still early enough where injuries or attitudes can change a team’s fortunes.
After 29 games, the Celtics are the best team in the league, perfect at home, and their nine road wins are one shy of most in the NBA. They’ve done all of this having played a tough schedule, with 22 games against teams currently .500 or better (a couple of those teams, like the Warriors for example, were below .500 at the time).
That's about to change starting tomorrow. Boston has the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, with all remaining opponents combining for a .463 winning percentage. That's dragged way down by three future games against Detroit, three more against Washington, and two against San Antonio, teams with 11 combined wins.
Milwaukee, currently 1.5 games behind the Celtics, has the fifth-toughest remaining schedule. Philadelphia, is in between. Here’s a look at the upcoming schedule through January to get a sense of what each team is facing.
* back-to-back, + third game in four nights
Boston: Detroit, Toronto*, @San Antonio+, @OKC, Utah, @Indiana*, @Indiana+, Minnesota, @Milwaukee*, Houston+, @Toronto, San Antonio, Denver, @Houston, @Dallas+, @Miami, LA Clippers, New Orleans, Indiana*+
I’ll just say this: The Celtics had better beat the Pistons tomorrow night. Not because losing to them would mean a ton in the big picture, but because I personally don’t want to deal with the aftermath.
This Pistons/Raptors/Spurs stretch is a great chance to pile up some wins, even with the back-to-back and three-in-four.
The Thunder are for real and that will be a challenge. So will winning both of those Indiana games. Boston will have some revenge in store for Minnesota before the Bucks on the back-to-back. The Spurs could be a trap game ahead of the Denver matchup. Dallas is always tough, especially on the back-to-back.
I think they should win at least 13 of these games. Six are up for grabs (OKC, one of the Indiana series, Milwaukee, Denver, Dallas, and the Clippers).
Milwaukee: @Brooklyn, @Cleveland, Indiana, @Indiana, @San Antonio*, @Houston+, Utah, Boston, Golden State, Sacramento*, @Cleveland, @Detroit, @Detroit, Cleveland, Cleveland, New Orleans*+, @Denver, @Portland
Those Indiana games will be interesting given Giannis Antetokounmpo’s outburst over the game ball, but the Bucks really have a chance to cruise to six or even seven wins before facing Boston with two days rest and the Celtics on the back-to-back. Hitting the road at the end for a western swing is where the schedule gets tough for Milwaukee.
Four games against Cleveland right now while they're dealing with injuries is fortuitous timing. They break up three against the Cavs with two against Detroit. If the Bucks slip at all in that stretch, they’ll regret it in the standings.
Their schedule will get much tougher later, but for now, the Celtics will have their work cut out for them holding off the Bucks.
Don’t be surprised if Milwaukee slips past Boston for a day or two at the top of the standings, especially if they win that game in Milwaukee.
Philadelphia: @Orlando, @Houston, @Chicago*+, Chicago, New York, Utah*, @Atlanta, Sacramento, Houston, Denver*, @Orlando, @Charlotte*, San Antonio+, @Indiana, @Denver, @Portland, @Golden State*
Joel Embiid is dealing with an ankle injury so the Orlando game will be interesting. Chicago is on a bit of a roll (relatively speaking) since losing Zach LaVine, getting big minutes from Andre Drummond so that's not the gimme it was before. They play Denver twice and at Orlando twice and the Warriors game on the back-to-back is interesting.
The Sixers are three games behind Boston and I’m guessing they stay there.
The Magic actually have a chance to leapfrog them if they win both of those games. They face off tonight and Embiid will miss that game, so there's a good chance the Magic win that and climb within a game of Philly.
The Magic actually have a tough month coming up, so it’s probably equally possible they come back down to earth. They play Philly and New York before heading west to face Phoenix, Golden State, Sacramento, and Denver. Over the next month, they play Philadelphia, Miami, New York, and Phoenix twice while also facing Dallas, OKC and Minnesota. They could be in for a slide.
Ultimately, we could start to see the East start to shake out like we thought. Boston and Milwaukee are jockeying for position on top of the conference, Philadelphia is a step behind, and then Miami, New York, and one other team will round out the top six. I though Cleveland would be a strong challenger, but their slow start and injuries have derailed them.
The Celtics just have to keep doing what they're doing and they should be able to stay in control of the conference. The Bucks will offer a strong challenge, but Boston has been pretty mentally strong this season themselves, which will make this stretch heading into the All-Star break a very interesting one.