Shohei Ohtani isn’t walking through that door. Neither is Juan Soto.
But do you know who is?
Enter Tyler O’Neill, your newest outfielder for the Boston Red Sox. Craig Breslow followed up an underwhelming trade of Alex Verdugo by acquiring his replacement in the form of a 28-year-old right-handed hitter.
O’Neill’s addition to the ballclub addresses one area of need for the team: defense. A two-time Gold Glove Award winner, O’Neill has spent the majority of his career playing left field, logging 349 games at the position, while playing 39 games in center and 25 in right.
In 2020, his first Gold Glove season, O’Neill was literally perfect in the outfield — 89 defensive chances, 89 putouts, zero errors committed in 48 games. His second Gold Glove campaign the following year saw a regression; his fielding percentage dipped to .962 while committing a career-high nine errors across 131 games.
That year, though, his bat stood out more than his glove. O’Neill’s lone stellar offensive season came in 2021, when he slashed .286/.352/.560 with career-best 34 home runs and 80 RBI. Those figures were good enough to earn him an eighth-place finish in the National League MVP voting.
Unfortunately, O’Neill hasn’t come close to replicating those numbers at the plate in any other year. He’s never hit more than 14 homers or drive in more than 58 runs (both in 2022) in a single season. O’Neill’s next highest batting average came in his second season, hitting .262 in 60 games. Overall, he is a lifetime .248 hitter.
So don’t expect O’Neill to be able to match Verdugo’s offensive production. While it seems the potential is there given his one breakout season, he will more likely than not be a downgrade at the plate.
Another potential issue for O’Neill is his availability. O’Neill has been plagued by injuries — primarily his hamstrings — in the majors. Only once in his six big league seasons has O’Neill topped 100 games played (138 in 2021). He played 96 games in 2022 and appeared in only 72 last season — the third-most of his career. That doesn’t bode well if the Red Sox are planning to lean on him as an everyday outfielder.
O’Neill could potentially be a defensive upgrade (though he actually posted a negative defensive WAR in each of the past two seasons) over Verdugo (a Gold Glove finalist himself), but it’s hard to picture him being a more productive player overall than the former centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade.
The jury is out on Breslow’s return in both trades until we see how Greg Weissert, Richard Fitts and Nicholas Judice turn out. But an introductory analysis seems to suggest O’Neill is a likely downgrade over Verdugo.
Ohtani does the Red Sox a favor
It turns out Ohtani had more of an “affinity” and “fondness” for Dodger Stadium than for Fenway Park.
Funny what $700 million will do to change one’s mind, huh?
After a free agency shrouded in mystery and erroneously reported flight itineraries, Ohtani landed where everyone thought he would in the first place: about forty miles up the road from his now former Los Angeles Angels team.
If Ohtani wasn’t going to be a Red Sox (it’s now clear John Henry wasn’t going to drop that kind of cash on any baseball player…), the next best thing he could do was sign with a team 3,000 miles in a different league.
A.k.a., not the Blue Jays.
Ohtani indirectly did the Red Sox a solid by spurning Toronto for L.A.’s other (and more prominent) team. Instead of seeing him a potential of 13 times next season, the Red Sox will now only face him three times — when they visit the Dodgers for a three-game series next July 19-21.
That, in and of itself, is a relief.
Next up: Yamomoto, Snell, Montgomery?
Now that the top free agent is off the market, the remaining dominos should start falling. Even though the Red Sox weren’t ultimately close to signing Ohtani, there remains a more realistic hope that they can still sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Of course, Yamamoto isn’t going to come cheap (but likely half a billion dollars cheaper than Ohtani, if that’s any consolation). Given that Ohtani — originally rumored to be valued in the $500 million range — signed for significantly more, it stands to reason that Yamamoto is going to cost more than the expected $200 million price tag.
Still, that shouldn’t be a problem for the Red Sox right? Allegedly “determined” to make a big move this offseason, signing Yamamoto would certainly qualify and is probably the next-best move they could make next to signing Ohtani. That should quell the critics (such as myself) for a minute…
Should they miss out on Yamamoto, it might be hard to make a splash with the top end of the talent pool drying up quickly. It’s Blake Snell, then Jordan Montgomery, and maybe a 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw? Beyond those three, the Red Sox might have to look elsewhere for their starting pitching help.
It seems Breslow is more comfortable operating on the trade market than free agency, anyway.
No E-Rod reunion, after all
You can cross old friend Eduardo Rodriguez off the list of potential starting pitching reinforcements…
The former Sox southpaw is headed to the desert to play for the defending National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks to the tune of four years and between $80 and $100 million.
Hey, good for Eddie, who gambled on himself (declining a three-year, $49 million option with the Detroit Tigers) and won. Rodriguez went from a roughly $16 million a year player to one worth between $20 and $25 million (with incentives).
It will be interesting to see how the Rodriguez deal impacts the market. If Yamamoto, Snell and Montgomery are viewed as better pitchers (and they should be), does that mean they will all command at least $25 million a year?
I would be more comfortable paying a pitcher like Yamamoto or Snell (a.k.a an ace) at least $25 million, but would hesitate to give a No. 2 or No. 3 starter like Montgomery that much unless it’s a short term deal.
As sought-after starters are starting to come off the board, it’s possible the Red Sox are backing themselves into a corner where they will have to overpay a “B-level” starter an “A-level” salary.