Received a lot of questions, understandably, in this week's BSJ Members Q&A about the Patriots' roster going forward. Smart, as usual, for you guys.
Figured it was time to take a quickie look at how things are shaping up. Once the season wraps up and we grade all the players, things will become a bit more clear about what's needed and where. But as the calendar flips to December and the Patriots are now playing out the string of the 2023 season, might as well start to set our sights on the future as much as we can.
Let's start with the 2024 depth chart laying out primarily where the many free agents are, and who the Patriots have on the roster beyond 2024 (not many at a lot of key spots). And then we'll get into our takeaways, plus Nickel Package:
Some thoughts ...
- It's interesting that most of the immediate 2024 holes are on offense, and the holes beyond 2024 are basically up the middle of the defense.
- For 2024 offensively, the Patriots at the very minimum need immediate starters at QB, LT, RT, TE (two). That's a lot at very important positions, to say nothing on the need to upgrade at WR.
- Defensively, right now, the Patriots only have Ja'Whaun Bentley, Keion White and Sam Roberts signed beyond 2024 in the front seven, and Marte Mapu (maybe) at safety. Woof.
- So, basically, this coming offseason, the Patriots have to have a two-pronged approach to plugging gaps for '24 and locking up pieces that you can build around long-term.
STARTERS/BIG ROLE PLAYERS THAT ARE FREE AGENTS AFTER THIS SEASON
With OverTheCap.com valuation (mostly playing time) and 10th AAV at their position
ED Josh Uche, $18 million OTC, $21 million AAV
S Kyle Dugger, $8 million, $13 million AAV
TE Hunter Henry, $7 million, $12.5 million AAV (his current AAV)
OL Mike Onwenu, $11.4 million, $15 million AAV for RT
LT Trent Brown, $10 million, $17 million AAV
ED Anfernee Jennings, $3 million, $13.75 million AAV for 20th
WR Kendrick Bourne, $4.4 million, $15 million AAV for 20th
TE/WR Mike Gesicki, $3.6 million, $7 million AAV for 20th
RB Ezekiel Elliott, $2.1 million, $4 million AAV for 20th
TE Pharoah Brown, $4.4 million, $7 million AAV for 20th
** ED Matthew Judon (2025 void): He's only due to make $6.5 million in cash next year, similar to Stephon Gilmore when he was traded away. Patriots will have to make another decision on his contract.
As of today, what I would do with each:
Uche: $25 million is the franchise tag. I would have traded him because he's going to get paid. He's gone.
Dugger: $18 million tag. Would let him test and hopefully match at around $15 million.
Henry: $13 million tag. Considering I have zero at the position for '23, I'm tagging him.
Onwenu: $23 million tag. I'm signing him for market at $15 million AAV and playing him at RT pending other moves.
Brown: No one is going to pay him beyond possibly a big one-year deal. With no good OT options, I'm signing him back at LT to start, RT if Patriots draft a LT. Onwenu would go to guard.
Jennings: Thanks to his expanded role this season, I could see him being an analytics darling and getting paid a surprising amount.
Bourne: I want him back and the ACL makes it easier, but he might just want to get out of here considering he's been in and out of the doghouse here the last two years.
Gesicki: Well, bye.
Elliott: Like what he's brought, but I'm looking for a contender if I'm him.
Brown: Come on back.
Judon: I would rework his contract and extend the void to 2026.
2025 FREE AGENTS I'M TRYING TO EXTEND THIS OFFSEASON
S Jabrill Peppers: $7.5 million AAV is 20th at safety and about right.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: 10th AAV is between $7 million and $10 million. Somewhere around $8 million is fair.
DT Christian Barmore: $20 million AAV is 10th. $14 million is 20th. Something on the lower end would be OK depending on how the Patriots think a contract will change him. Indicators are very positive so far.
CB Jonathan Jones: His current AAV is $9.5 million. His current OTC valuation is $13.9 million. He'll be 32 in 2025. Would extend him another year.
Everyone else is wait and see, but they need bodies on the DL going forward.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Thought it was chicken(bleep) the way Bill Belichick handled the QB position this week, failing to state the obvious: that Bailey Zappe will start and Mac Jones won't play unless there's an emergency. Belichick is the end-all and be-all football chief of the New England Patriots - which is the way he wanted it. His duties include standing there and explaining his decisions, especially at the most important position. You know why he wouldn't address it: he would have to answer a plethora of questions, starting with: how did it get to this point with Jones after where he was entering Year 2?
2. Belichick gets paid, rightfully, a lot of money. He should have just stood there and taken all the blame. He's the coach and in charge of personnel. Everything comes back on him. If a player fails to make progress or regresses, it is Belichick's fault. Did we hear that? Of course not. Will we ever? Doubtful. I'm sure he privately blames everything on Jones, just like his confidant Mike Lombardi has done repeatedly on his podcast.
3. Bailey Zappe should, privately, be excited for this opportunity. It's what you work for as a player. But his attitude this week leaves a lot to be desired. After his first practice as the starter, he flashed a big grin to reporters.
Bailey Zappe just strolled through the locker room. Approached by a few reporters he smiled and said he’d be speaking tomorrow.
— Phil Perry (@PhilAPerry) November 29, 2023
Good practice, he was asked?
“Great practice.”
Talking to reporters on Thursday, he looked like the cat who ate the canary.
It's fine for him to excited internally about getting this chance, something that he felt was long overdue (he's not wrong).
But this is a 2-9 team. And Zappe, who got cut, didn't earn this chance - he got it by default because the starter, after about 15 chances, couldn't be put on the field anymore because he's mentally shot.
Just shut up and do your job. You can be as happy as you want when you complete more than 48.7% of your passes. Do you think Zappe realizes his season and career INT% (5.1 and 3.8) is worse than Jones' (3.5 and 2.8)? What's he so happy about?
4. I do like Zappe in this spot and for this team going forward — some of it because Jones was just shot. Zappe's always been a lot more natural and his movements and his playfakes. That can subtly help a struggling offense gain just a little more room to operate. Jones' fakes were terrible and his always rushed the timing of plays. Plus, Zappe just has a little more hip fluidity to help him throw off-platform.
5. Bedard's Pick
Fanduel Odds: Chargers -5.5, o/u 39.5
Bedard's 2023 record: 6-5 overall, 6-5 vs. spread.
It's supposed to rain all day, so that should help the Patriots, who can own both lines. I love Justin Herbert, but his line stinks, his receivers stink if Keenan Allen isn't healthy, his coach stinks and his defense stinks.
Patriots 24, Chargers 20.