Things definitely look bleak for the Patriots at 1-5 and with games against the Bills and Dolphins coming up.
Some fans, maybe many, have already given up on this season and are ready to turn the page to 2024, starting with the trade deadline on Oct. 31.
We'll play along with that in a second, but I can tell you that none of the coaches or front office staff have given up. It's Week 7. Anything can happen and most of what happens with this team over the next 11 games — all 11 — will determine what happens next for this franchise.
Case in point: the 2022 Lions. They were a bad 1-6 football team after five straight losses, including a 29-0 drubbing at the hands of the Patriots and Bailey Zappe. They were beaten 24-6 by the Cowboys the week before that. Back-to-back blowout losses ... sounds familiar.
You know what happened next: the Lions won 8 of their next 10 games to finish 9-8 and just out of the playoffs in 2022. After a 5-1 start this season, the Lions are now 13-3 over their last 16 games.
The odds are long the Patriots can do something similar — those Lions actually scored a lot of points most weeks, unlike the Patriots — but you really never know. An upset of the Bills or Dolphins could change a lot for this Patriots team. As much as they seem hopeless and disjointed, a win would bring a lot of confidence and perhaps more wins.
Put it this way: if the Patriots close out the season strong, even after a possible 1-7 start, against the likes of the Commanders, Colts, Giants, Chargers, Steelers, Broncos and Jets, finishing 8-9 with the offense and Mac Jones showing great improvement could very well mean they run it all back in 2024.
That would tick off more than a few, I know — don't shoot the messenger. And, to be fair, the Patriots' distinct lack of talent in key areas makes this highly unlikely. Check out this post-mortem by the DVOA boys over at FTN for all the horror:
The Patriots have defied all expectations. This isn’t an average team underperforming. The New England Patriots are a flat-out bad football team. Their -22.5% total DVOA is their worst start through six weeks since 1995. It’s not the worst in franchise history – those early nineties teams were rough – but this is clearly the Patriots’ worst start under Belichick.
But, truly, you just never know until you know.
In any event, the Patriots will have some big decisions to make on their many key pending free agents. A big consideration in all this: what the Patriots plan to do with their $92 million in cap space in 2024. If they are going to spend their way back into relevancy, like in 2021, then they will likely receive zero compensatory picks for any free agents they might lose (that's how they go zero in return for Joe Thuney).
In other words, the Patriots need to figure out now which players they either won't re-sign or don't think they can match if that player gets a big-money deal. The Patriots will have the tag to use, so they can retain at least one player.
Who will that be? Who should be sold?
FRANCHISE TAG
TE Hunter Henry: Obviously Kyle Dugger would be the other prime candidate but the safety franchise tender would make Dugger the third-highest-paid safety in the game on an AAV basis — and his agents would make that the basis for a long-term deal. Not only is he not worth that, I have a hard time seeing Belichick do that.
The TE tag would be a $1 million raise for Henry and ninth among all tight ends. The bigger issue is the Patriots have absolutely nothing at the position — Henry, Mike Gesicki and Pharoah Brown are all set to be UFAs. What's the alternative if they don't retain Henry ... go into free agency? Start a rookie? Don't see it. Need a sure thing.
OPEN THE BIDDING
DE Josh Uche: Has the best chance to bring the best compensation (fourth-round pick). The Patriots don't trust him to be a three-down player, and someone will be just fine with him rushing the passer every down, driving up his price. Get what you can now, ASAP.
S Kyle Dugger: Patriots have to realistic on this and gauge the market correctly now. Dugger will be 28 as a first-time free agent and this might be his only shot at a big contract, so he will likely be going to the highest bidder. Are the Patriots going to go that far? If so, then keep him and be the highest bidder. They might do that because he's a defensive player (wouldn't if it was offense). If they aren't willing to play at least $15 million AAV, then they should trade him now.
TE Mike Gesicki: Somebody might fork over a late-round pick to help their offense (Chiefs?). They don't care about blocking at TE, obviously. Would be some Travis Kelce insurance.
S/CB Jalen Mills: Doesn't have much of a role and you still have Adrian Phillips under contract (also no role). Get something, get more playing time for Marte Mapu.
TRY TO RETAIN IN FREE AGENCY
OT Trent Brown: He's been pretty good this year and given his history, probably won't have much of a market. Another position where the Patriots have nothing due to draft negligence. Someone has to play LT. You can do worse. Sign Brown and get to drafting.
OG Mike Onwenu: His film and ankle make him untradeable — at least for just compensation. Someone will pay him based on past film if his medicals check out. Patriots should let him test the market and monitor.
WR Kendrick Bourne: He's the only receiver who works, the QB loves him and he shouldn't have a huge market in FA as a No. 3 receiver. Like Henry, need something to count on at WR.
CB Myles Bryant: Good depth player in a lot of spots.
DE Anfernee Jennings: Not a pass rusher so the market will not be robust.
TE Pharoah Brown: Good, solid blocking TE. Henry, Brown and a draft TE would be a solid room.
QB Will Grier: Maybe we'll get an audition at some point?
SEE YOU DOWN THE ROAD
STs Matthew Slater: Just put him in all the Hall of Fames. Patriots special teams are the worst in the league right now. Branden Schooler is the heir apparent. 18 has done his job and then some.
LB Mack Wilson: Annual request ... can they draft and train one freaking linebacker?
ON THE DOWN LOW...
DE Matthew Judon: He's now in the same spot that Stephon Gilmore was after a restructure and then an injury. That is not going to go well the following season either. I would call a few close buddies, let them see the medicals if Judon approves, and see what you might get for a closer who can contribute to a postseason run. I'd start with his old team, the Ravens.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. ESPN report on Patriots at the trade deadline:
Teams are torn on whether they think New England, at 1-5, blows up the roster at the deadline. "They are a team that will say players are available but then will pull back," one league exec said. This isn't a stout roster. But a handful of players hold value. Among names that league execs say they are curious about: pass rusher Josh Uche, offensive guard Mike Onwenu, Bourne, defensive tackle Christian Barmore, and safety Kyle Dugger.
The Patriots could get calls on Kendrick Bourne, as they did last year, but I'm not sensing much movement there as of now.
Noteworthy: Raiders are looking for pass-rush help. Uche anyone?
2. Patriots Saturday roster moves: Activated DB Cody Davis and DB Jack Jones to the 53-man roster. Placed OL Riley Reiff on injured reserve. Elevated DL Trysten Hill and WR Jalen Reagor to the active roster from the practice squad.
Jones is obviously significant. Patriots don't have Christian Gonzalez, but Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones and JC Jackson is pretty good. Better than the Bills.
3. Congrats to Dante Scarnecchia and Mike Vrabel on their Patriots HOF inductions. Two great, great Patriots.
"Very talented coach, sees the full game, sees everything about the game – very good teacher, tough, former Marine. But, he can give tough love, but in a good way, just a great guy to be around," Belichick said of Scar, who is playing a lot of pickleball these days.
"He was the kind of guy that at practice would take reps at every position, free safety, strong safety, occasionally defensive line," Belichick said of Vrabel. "If there was a certain player we were trying to replicate, he would jump in there and do that. It was competitive, especially with him and [Tom] Brady, quite entertaining at times, to be honest with you. Mike had a great personality, great love for the game, passionate, high energy, very strong. Mike’s really strong, physically strong player, handled the tackles, obviously could handle tight ends, good power rusher and had enough moves to go with it. His strength was his length and his power and his intelligence."
4. I'm smelling a new Patriots.com podcast: Storytime with Bill (this was great):
Great story from Belichick. And furthers the point that he’s a great storyteller and would be excellent in media if he ever wanted to swim in those waters. @MMcCarthyREV pic.twitter.com/qjaDdPQbvS
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) October 21, 2023
5. Bedard's Pick
Fanduel Odds: Bills -7.5, 40.5 o/u
Bedard's 2023 record: 4-2 overall, 3-3 vs. spread.
I would not be afraid of this matchup if I were the Patriots. They are near full strength in the secondary and there is no excuse not to have a great plan for Stefon Diggs, who is the only guy Josh Allen looks for. The Bills' defense is down their two best DTs, MLB and two cornerbacks. This is going to be a battle and a close one. I don't think the Bills go a wake-up call against the Giants. I just don't think they're all that good at the moment. They need to find more offense at the trade deadline, and they still can't run the ball. Allen is great, but he can't be the entire show. Patriots must get him sped up. No more sitting back against him.
Bills 23, Patriots 20.