There's little question the Patriots are sending more extra rushers than perhaps at any time under Bill Belichick.
New England blitzed on another 30 percent of dropbacks in the loss to the Raiders. That was actually quite a reduction from games against Saints (44%), Cowboys (41%) and Jets (33%).
I'm a little dubious of these numbers from Pro Football Reference (some of the Patriots "pressures" accounted for by other sites are often just manning up the back in the backfield or mugging a gap — the Patriots aren't sending more than four rushers in a designed blitz on those plays) but right now they have the Patriots second in the league with a blitz percentage of 43.4. (PFF had 40 percent vs. Raiders, so maybe I'm wrong)
That's nearly half the dropbacks.
Talk about the antithesis of a Bill Belichick defense. Only Brian Flores outside of New England would think of doing that (his Vikings are No. 1 at 57.9%).
Here are the recent blitz percentage and league ranking for Patriots defense, according to PFR:
2023: 43.4 (2nd)
2022: 21.9 (19th)
2021: 24.5 (21st)
2020: 24.4 (23rd)
2019: 37.1 (6th)
2018: 30.9 (8th)
You could look at the jump in pressure rate and explain it by the repeated times they've trailed by double digits, and the two blowouts they've been in. I'm sure the defense trying to make plays is part of it, but it doesn't explain all of it (Eagles and Dolphins were 21.4 and 8.8, respectively, and the Patriots trailed big in those games as well).
I think most of it has to do with the fact that over recent years, the Patriots have had trouble getting home with four rushers against good offensive lines dating back to the 2019 swoon of the Boogie Men. While the Patriots rushing "games" work against the weaklings and backup QBs they are used to beating, those are thwarted by the better teams that usually dot the end of their schedules. This year the Patriots faced the Eagles, Dolphins, Cowboys and Saints, who all have good to great offensive lines. They're schooled on the Patriots' tricks, as are the Patriots-West Raiders, and they don't get home as often against those teams. So Steve Belichick needs to call in extra artillery to make the QB uncomfortable (except backup Zach Wilson ... that's just for fun).
The reason doesn't really matter. It's just a fact the Patriots are blitzing more than ever.
What matters are the results. And they, like those of the Patriots' offense, are not good.
The Patriots may be second in blitz rate, but they are only 20th in QB pressure (21.2%) and 27th in sacks (12). In other words, half their blitzes have no effect.
That leads to the second problem: more rushers means fewer players in coverage, and the Patriots are getting exposed in the secondary. The Raiders game was just the latest example, with multiple breakdowns. Often at the heart of it: whether it's Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers or the rotated safety du jour, life at the free safety position after Devin McCourty has not been good. Oh, and toss in some JC Jackson coverage busts for good measure.
A breakdown of the most egregious mental errors against the Raiders:
First quarter
3-7-LV 49 (12:17) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short middle to M.Mayer to NE 33 for 18 yards (D.Wise, K.Dugger).
Josh McDaniels knew exactly what Belichick would call — some form of man-to-man with pressure (five-man blitz) — and exploited them with a pick play by Jakobi Meyers for TE Michael Mayer (McDaniels knew they would double Davante Adams or Meyers or both on third downs, so he expertly played into that). The issue here is JC Jackson is wrong in some fashion, possibly in two ways. He does not go with Meyers, he passes him off. That appears to be the first error because everyone else, especially Jalen Mills on Mayer, stays with their man. But Ja'Whaun Bentley bails out Jackson by slowing up Meyers. So nothing really hurt there. But instead of passing off Meyers and then picking up the crosser (Mayer), Jackson does nothing in no man's land and then missed a tackle (third error).
3-11-NE 23 (8:37) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to D.Carter. (DROP - WOULD-BE TD)
Patriots bring an all-out blitz. Another great rub call for McDaniels. The problem for the Patriots? Both deep safeties, Dugger and Pepers, fly to Mayer and Meyers, leaving Jackson (DeAndre Carter) and Jonathan Jones (Adams) on islands. My read: Peppers was supposed to stay home and help on Adams and Carter. Patriots were very lucky this was dropped, or Garoppolo did not throw to Adams.
3-6-LV 45 (:14) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass deep left to M.Mayer to NE 23 for 32 yards (Jo.Jones).
Patriots show all-out blitz but Peppers quickly drops out to give the Patriots Cover 3 with Peppers at FS, Jalen Mills at RCB and Jackson at LCB. All three should have the deep third of the field. The Patriots do bring another blitz but Garoppolo has a great pocket and Josh Uche rushes by the passer, allowing Garoppolo to step up into zero pressure. The problem on the back end again is with Jackson and Peppers, the FS. For the second straight week, Jackson plays man instead of zone. Peppers covers for him by leaning toward Adams. But that leaves Jalen Mills alone against two verticals. Garoppolo correctly reads Mills playing Tucker, the inside vertical, and throws to Mayer. Jonathan Jones could have helped more as the hook/flat defender, but he was also out of position. Jackson's error made Peppers bad which made Mills bad. Error upon error with an extra man rushing the passer equals a big play.
Second quarter
3-5-NE 18 (13:47) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to J.Meyers to NE 12 for 6 yards (J.Jackson).
Another all-out blitz by the Patriots that yields no pressure, and Jackson is too far off to prevent the easy third-down conversion.
2-10-NE 12 (12:27) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short middle to J.Meyers for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
(Mack Wilson was the other linebacker, not Peppers as I said on the video.)
The Patriots do not blitz here. In fact, they only rush three and have EIGHT players in coverage against five targets and Meyers is still wide-open for the TD. That's amazing. It's hard to do.
The issue? Instead of rotating after the snap to be the post safety, Dugger goes into coverage on Mayer — along with Anfernee Jennings and Bentley — leaving the middle wide open for Adams and Meyers. This is just awful defense with eight players in coverage. In theory, you should be able to double three players in this defense. Instead, Josh Jacobs, Meyers and Tucker are all one-on-one. Good lord this is bad.
Third quarter
3-4-LV 31 (7:39) (Shotgun) B.Hoyer pass deep middle to T.Tucker to NE 21 for 48 yards (Jo.Jones). NE-Jo.Jones was injured during the play.
Another five-man pressure that yields no pressure.
Normally the Patriots, with all their experience in the secondary and on defense, are pretty good at showing one look before the snap, and another after, especially on third down. But not here (again).
Patriots show Cover 2 before the snap. After the snap, it's Cover 1 Robber (or Rat). One deep safety and the other safety, robs a favorite third-down target (usually Meyers or Adams). It appears Peppers is the Robber, and Dugger is the free safety. But Dugger never gets to the middle of the field to stay deeper than the deepest vertical route. Instead, he takes the bait of Adams' under route and Brian Hoyer correctly throws the over route to Tucker, and you have a huge play. It's like this play was called for Dugger and they knew he could be exploited. A lot of institutional knowledge on that staff.
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Patriots better clean this stuff up — and get home with their blitzes — or you can expect to see a lot more big plays against this defense by better offenses. Of course, the Patriots could just play three deep safeties like they did against Miami, with upcoming matchups with Bills and Dolphins. That's one way not to get torched in the back end.
Here are the positional ratings against the Raiders:
DEFENSE
Defensive line (3 out of 5)
Pretty good for the most part, but a lack of pressure (just 22%) continues to be a huge issue, especially after Matthew Judon's injury. Life has not been good without him. ... Good to see Christian Barmore dominate a good matchup against an inferior opponent (LG Dylan Parham), but he needs to bring more pass rush. ... Pretty good job against Josh Jacobs kept this game closer than it should have been. ... Deatrich Wise blew an edge and lined up offsides. Can't have that from a vet. ... Too bad Keion White got hurt so early. Wanted to see how he would do against good LT Kolten Miller. ... Davon Godchaux continues to be invisible, which isn't terrible at his spot. But they're paying for more.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Good game for the most part out of these two (even Mack Wilson got a little run), but Jahlani Tavai had two uncharacteristic mental errors with the personal foul and blown edge for 18 yards.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Jabrill Peppers was great in this game, but everyone else was not good, especially JC Jackson and Kyle Dugger. Those two have more mental errors in coverage than the rest of the secondary. ... Jonathan Jones is really hobbling out there. He's gutting it out. ... Patriots are missing a speed freak/assignment-sure guy at free safety, and it's getting more exploited by the week as more teams get more film. Pray for them against Buffalo and Miami.
TWO UP
Christian Barmore: Dominated against the run. Now more pass rush.
Jabrill Peppers: What a dynamite hit, even if Garoppolo's pass was a beat late for no reason. Finally a play from the defense!
THREE DOWN
JC Jackson: What he's screwing up isn't that hard, especially for someone who has been in the system.
Jonathan Jones: Was a central figure in three big plays as he guts it out.
Kyle Dugger: They need to get him back close to the line. Maybe play Mills more at FS? Adrian Phillips, who has zero role on this team, is probably too slow.