Last December, the Patriots went to Vegas with a chance to right their season.
After surviving the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals and improving to 7-6, the Patriots looked like they might be able to finish strong as they took on the 5-8 Raiders in Josh McDaniels' first season as head coach.
Instead, that game, a stunning 30-24 loss, continued a slide that has seen New England lose nine of their last 11 games dating back to Thanksgiving. Of course, Jakobi Meyers' fail lateral is most remembered from that game. What gets lost is what else happened, which may sound familiar:
- Patriots trailed 17-3 to start (and were bailed out by a Kyle Dugger INT for a score)
- Against a struggling Raiders defense, New England was just 2 of 13 on third downs;
- Mac Jones had one of his worst games to that point (13 of 31, 112 yards, 52.1 rating);
- And New England's special teams got owned (blocked punt and almost another).
Starting with Vegas, Patriots have trailed ...
17-3 (Vegas)
22-0 (Bengals)
14-7 (Dolphins)
14-7 (Bills)
16-0 (Eagles)
17-3 (Dolphins)
28-3 (Cowboys)
21-0 (Saints)
A team that is not built to come from behind can't stop falling behind in the first half of games. A few times, you can pin on the quarterback. Eight times in the past nine games (thank goodness for Zach Wilson) points to a team-wide infestation of gameplans that are lacking, bad execution and a lack of talent.
So with another season — and perhaps the futures of Mac Jones and Bill Belichick — at stake, the Patriots again head to Vegas with a chance to settle things down as the protege takes on the mentor.
And both McDaniels and Belichick have a lot on the line.
From afar, there are a lot of similarities. Since McDaniels took over the Raiders at the start of 2022, Vegas (2-3 in '23) is 8-14. The Patriots are 9-13. Right now, both are struggling on offense with shaky turnover-prone quarterbacks. And both teams could look back on their first-round draft failings since 2014 as part of the talent issue (all of it before McDaniels and Dave Ziegler were hired in Vegas).
But which team is ready for the worm to turn?
Well, in their last six quarters, the Raiders' defense has allowed just 13 points (hey, they allowed 24.6 per game last year, 27th in the league ... progress) and taken the ball away four times against Justin Herbert and Jordan Love. And Vegas' offense, which has failed to score over 18 points in any game, has shown signs of subtle progress. Running back Josh Jacobs, after a lengthy contract squabble kept him out all of camp, finally looked more in shape and like his NFL rushing champion self against the Packers both in and out of the backfield. There's hope that Jimmy Garoppolo, who leads the league with seven interceptions, will start to settle down after being out of the McDaniels scheme in San Francisco (six years) longer than he was in it with New England (three). On film, he has yet to settle and that wasn't helped by the fact that he didn't start practicing fully after offseason foot surgery until the end of August.
I think we all know where the Patriots are, as they wait on the offense to do ... anything except put them in a severe hole to start games.
This is arguably the biggest stretch of McDaniels' short tenure with four games against losing teams in the next five (Patriots, Bears, Giants, Jets) — a road Monday Night clash against the Lions the only outlier. If the Raiders can get to 6-4 before dates with the Dolphins and Chiefs, Vegas will come out of their Week 13 bye with a chance at the playoffs with five manageable games to play (a Chiefs rematch is the only game against a team over .500).
If the Patriots and Belichick don't beat the Raiders to stop their slide and improve to 2-4, a 1-7 start and all that entails within the locker room looms as perhaps a death knell to Belichick's coaching career in New England.
Amazing what has transpired, especially with Jones and Belichick, since McDaniels left the Patriots. They were 10-7 and made the postseason under a rookie quarterback with all new weapons via free agency. Now both are staring at the end of their careers.
All three meet again at a very big crossroads for all involved.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Circled back with a veteran advanced scout who has studied the Patriots to get an unbiased assessment of the offense and Jones:
"They look slower on offense. The lines not very ... there's some plays but it's just not very consistent. The right tackle is no good. (Atonio) Mafi is not ready. Trent (Brown)'s lazy. Mac looks just ... he just looks out of sorts. It looks to me like ... what do you trust if you're Mac? Do you trust the skill players? No. Do you trust the line? No. Has the system or the scheme really popped a bunch of easy throws for you yet this year? No. Of course, that doesn't make his turnovers and (crap) plays he's made (excusable) ... that's his fault. But when I'm watching, it's like he didn't trust much. And I wouldn't either. Honestly, there's just not much to trust. Who do you trust?"
2. One the state of the weapons:
"Juju's terrible, he was terrible last year. I'm not really sure what happened there. I mean, there's no way he's a $10 million player. Bill's always liked those kinds of players (like Mike Gesicki, who was signed to be Jakobi Meyers' replacement), the Scott Chandlers and all that, possibly gave them fits on defense. They're not tight ends so nobody plays them like a tight end. So unless you think Mike Gesicki's a really good receiver, I wouldn't take him. They have a shelf life. And then once everybody starts playing him like a wideout, they're not very good because they can't get open against quick corners. You know, there's only so many times you can throw the ball up for grabs. But this is Bill (with offense). DeVante Parker ... extend him. Gesicki ... give him $7 million. Juju, he'll justify it with something else, like run after catch, whatever it is. It's just, not very well put together. And the details don't look any good. Like the routes and the protections ... it just looks (sloppy)."
3. What does Malik Cunningham's signing to the active roster mean?
In a flurry of roster moves on Saturday, the Patriots signed QB Malik Cunningham to the 53-man roster from the practice squad and activated WR Tyquan Thornton from injured reserve. The Patriots placed LB Matthew Judon and OL Tyrone Wheatley Jr. on injured reserve. The Patriots also elevated DL Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and WR Jalen Reagor to the active roster from the practice squad.
"Malik’s really worked hard and made a lot of improvement,” Belichick told reporters this week. “Never really played in the kicking game at Louisville. So, he’s started to show up there. Never played receiver. That didn’t look very good either in the spring, but he’s really improved there. He can catch the ball but just the route running and finding zones and things like that. But it’s come pretty naturally to him. And then the plays we’ve given him at quarterback, he’s competent there. ... So, he’s a smart kid, he works hard, and the opportunities he’s had, he’s actually looked — he’s shown a lot of improvement doing them. It’s a little too early for an induction ceremony here, but there’s definitely a lot of improvement.”
If Cunningham is active, and it's likely after this move to sign him to the customary rookie UDFA three-year contract, he will have a package that could include a trick play or two. Desperate times ... He still has not been trained at quarterback.
4. Keys to the game on Sunday:
1. Less jittery QB wins: Both Mac Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo have been turnover machines to this point because of the same basic flaw — neither has been completely comfortable in the pocket for different reasons (Jones: bad protection and lack of receiver separation; Garoppolo: not enough practice time/game reps in a system he's been out of for six years). Whichever offensive coordinator does the best job of making their QB comfortable will win this matchup between good buddies (McDaniels, O'Brien).
2. Don't let Maxx Crosby get in Jones' head: The Raiders' superstar end clearly spooked Jordan Love on Monday night with the threat of his pass rush. If the Patriots allow that to happen to Jones — and I have no clue how they stop that dynamo, six OL? — then nothing is going to chance this week. Protecting Mac has to be Job 1.
3. Freaking pound the rock: The Raiders like their depth on the defensive interior but it's still small and relatively weak. The Patriots must run the ball this week to exhaustion. This will help settle Jones, the protection and help open things up against the Raiders' zone defense (they can't play man without injured Nate Hobbs).
4. Steal a play or two on defense and special teams: The Patriots got a Dugger return TD last year to get them going, and will need a similar play. The Patriots allowed a punt block and saw Matthew Slater and Branden Schooler shut down by the Raiders. If New England can flip the special teams script, they stand a good chance at coming out on top.
5. Bedard's Pick
Fanduel Odds: Raiders -2.5, 41.5 o/u
Bedard's 2023 record: 3-2 overall, 2-3 vs. spread.
I don't like this matchup one bit. The Patriots have no one to block Maxx Crosby and I don't have confidence Adrian Klemm can scheme it up like Dante Scarnecchia would. Without Matthew Judon, I'm not confident the Patriots can make Garoppolo uncomfortable against a defense he knows well and has carved up. Plus, Josh McDaniels has a very clear idea on how to play and beat the Patriots, and Patrick Graham's defense is flying around and creating turnovers. I do think both offenses will do some damage, however.
Raiders 23, Patriots 20.