FOXBOROUGH - How did something so good get so bad? The Patriots are 1-4, dead last in the AFC East, trailing even the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets. They’ve been outscored 72-3 over the previous two games, just suffered the worst home loss of the Bill Belichick era after absorbing the most lopsided defeat of his head coaching career the Sunday prior, and haven’t found the end zone in 34 straight drives. If this were any other coach and just about any other franchise, the head coach would, at the very least, be on notice, if not being shooed right out the door ASAP. Here? Who knows? The owner has talked tough for several years but has done very little. Maybe he gave Matt Groh more power. Maybe he didn’t. Maybe who cares? The whole operation stinks right now.
So how did we get here? Lack of talent, obviously (duh), and an erosion of leadership, or at least leadership’s ability to get the message across. The talent part is the easiest to see. For instance, the Pats offensive line features, from left to right:
- a 7th rounder, Trent Brown, unwanted in two different spots.
- a 1st rounder, Cole Strange, who isn’t healthy and, when he has been, hasn’t distinguished himself, and a 4th rounder who’s just not ready yet.
- an undrafted free agent, David Andrews (albeit one of your most consistent players for years now)
- a 6th-rounder, Mike Onwenu
- a 6th rounder (Vederian Lowe), a journeyman at the end (Riley Reiff), or whatever Calvin Anderson is.
Any wonder why they can’t protect the quarterback or open holes in the ground game?
At wide receiver, they chose to go the route of one man’s trash is another man’s treasure: Kendrick Bourne (SF), Devante Parker (traded in the division, which for some reason, so many overlooked), JuJu Smith-Schuster (let go by two teams that know talent), two-late round rookies and a big slot who gets asked to lead block like he’s a tight end (Mike Gesicki and he isn’t a TE. Stop). So when the Pats are, among other things, 32nd in EPA per drop-back, why should this be a surprise?
As for the leadership aspect, it’s harder to define, but I’ll take a shot at it, especially regarding Belichick. Even if occasionally a player like Smith-Schuster will say he chose New England because of the coach, the reality is it was the money. It’s almost always about the money. So what happens when you have mercenaries who got their guaranteed dollars on a struggling team? What you have here. This team is lifeless, has shown zero mental toughness the moment adversity hits - and it’s hit often these last two weeks - and one that repeats the coach’s mantras but doesn’t live them. They are just words with no meaning. Belichick has more Super Bowl titles than entire rosters, but this group doesn’t see that. They see a coach who hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2018-19 season and has lost more than he’s won since then. Jeff Freaking Fisher. History is just that, history. Unprecedented success then, but now? No more.
Some of the team’s highest-paid players are invisible on the field and in the locker room. Ask yourself when you saw a meaningful play or heard meaningful words from Davon Godchaux, Parker, and Brown. At least Brown is playing reasonably well. PFF’s grades tell he’s a top-5 left tackle in football. That may be true, but the reality of life with that player is something decidedly different. That dude is rowing his own boat, more concerned about his reworked deal and getting another crack at free agency than remaining a Patriot.
Godchaux and Parker are no different, except those guys aren’t rated highly by PFF or anyone else (Godchaux is the 2nd lowest-rated Patriots’ defender if you buy PFF’s grading system). And lest you forget, both of these players earned extensions in the last year. Awesome.
How many missteps will a 71-year-old coach be allowed? Postgame, Belichick talked about starting over, whatever that means. He repeated that Monday. Is that an admission, or as much of one as you’re going to get, that what he and his coaching staff have been doing is not good enough? And so what if it is? There are limited fixes internally. Maybe some rookies blossom or players like Strange and Tyquan Thornton get healthy and finally live up to their draft status, but how much higher can that elevate the Pats? They are, objectively, one of the worst teams in football by any metrics, and their quarterback is broken. I wrote about him here:
Have the Patriots become the thing they mocked for nearly two decades? A team without a quarterback, without a plan, and without hope that this season will mean something, at least regarding the playoffs? It sure feels that way.https://t.co/2dAxdZLYWj
— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) October 9, 2023
Do you make a trade or two? For what? And what would you dare give up as a team that is currently near the top of the Tankapalooza standings (5th for those of you keeping score at home), and with a coach that may be a dead duck? Nothing of substance. That would be irresponsible. This team has been uncompetitive. Why the hell would you trust them to fight when they have turtled repeatedly in moments big and small here in October? Your better bet is to peel off a player or three and acquire more draft capital. You might need it to find the next quarterback, elite left tackle, or edge rusher.
In short, Belichick is nearly three-and-a-half years into this rebuild, or reshaping, or re-whatever post-Tom Brady. The results:
- 2020, 7-9, no playoffs
- 2021, 10-7, Wild Card loss at Buffalo (47-17)
- 2022, 8-9, no playoffs
- 2023, 1-4, playoffs not looking promising
That’s not progress, far from it. The Pats aren’t on the road to mediocrity; they are the very definition of it, slipping even further into an abyss that has them looking around at their company in the standings - Carolina, Arizona, Denver, Vegas, Chicago - and asking how this happened. They never, ever thought this team would become one of those. Most of the organization has been in denial, never mind a fan base that long has been guilty of the same. But reality is here to slap you in the face, kick you in the groin, and toss you out the front door by the seat of your pants. You’re now living in a cold, cold world that doesn’t care about what you were but is now relishing what you’ve become. Change has come - it’s not what you envisioned - and now, more change is needed. Whether or not that happens is up to ownership. Plain and simple.