August is almost over, and PumpkinSpicetember is right around the corner. Pretty soon, the official New England uniform of hoodies and shorts will return, the annual fight against fallen foliage will commence, and the NBA will start back up hoping to attract your attention whenever football isn’t on.
Media day is about a month from now. The Celtics will all dress in full uniform to answer the same questions a half dozen times and profess their readiness for a championship run. They’ll take their official pictures, they’ll record some jumbotron bits, goof around on camera for some fun social media posts, and then it’s off to business.
And that's when it gets serious for the Celtics. Things have changed a lot for them and their competition. The league is in a different place, starting its first season under this nefarious new collective bargaining agreement that will reshape the league. The shuffling from the bottom to the top of the league is going from ferris wheel speed to roller coaster, and it’s happening quickly.
The long haul for which Brad Stevens has built this team is not nearly as long as originally planned, which puts a bit of pressure on this particular team to take advantage of a sea that seems to be ready to part for them if some things go right. Stevens and the Celtics have pivoted quickly in the face of new challenges, and while it might take a little luck, there's a clear path for them to blaze on their way to a June parade.
They’ve built a team that has a lot of theoretical potential. The impact of losing Marcus Smart will still be determined, but the headlong dive into Joe Mazzulla’s preferred style of offense made Smart expendable and Kristap Porzingis attractive. If the plan works, the Celtics could have a monster offense without taking any real steps back defensively. It’s not out of the question that Boston’s offensive firepower and their ability to protect the rim could lead to a lot of regular season wins.
At the same time the competition is starting to either crumble, or at least show some cracks.
Philadelphia is leading the way there, with the James Harden saga taking uglier and uglier turns into the sewer. It might always be sunny in Philadelphia for Charlie, Mac, Dennis, Dee, and Frank, but it's typhoon season across town at the Wells Fargo Center. Every time Harden opens his mouth, another gust rips away some of Philly’s soul.
Daryl Morey is digging in for a fight himself, understanding that this isn’t the time to rebuild the Sixers. Joel Embiid’s good health and motivation is becoming a rare commodity, and to waste that after all these years would crush the team.
Morey’s reputation is on the line. He has been buying up Harden stock for years, and now he’s watching his 401k evaporate in a cloud of stripper glitter. If he can’t fix the Harden situation, then he has to get a quality return in a deal, and he’ll be willing to take this mess into the season if he needs to. Morey might feel that a few months of pain won’t matter if the right deal comes along and Philly can get good enough where seeding isn’t an issue.
Even if that becomes the case, an early Philly slide simply means a couple more wins for Boston and more distance between them in the standings.
Milwaukee should be good again, but they're getting dusty in a hurry. They're probably going to be the oldest team in the NBA again this year, meaning they have to take it easy with their stars and probably sacrifice wins in the regular season in an effort to make a deep postseason run.
But they have a new coach in Adrian Griffin after Mike Budenholzer oversaw a first-round exit. This is the same Budenholzer who won a title with them a couple of seasons ago, so it’s clear the Bucks weren’t thrilled with the status quo. Griffin has a ton of NBA experience, so it’s not out of the question that he’ll succeed pretty quickly with a talented roster, but it’s still a learning curve for the Bucks.
They also have a star in Giannis Antetokounmpo who is sending the team a strong message that he’s not a guarantee to stick around if he doesn’t see a championship-level roster around him in Milwaukee. That's bad news for the Bucks, who just paid a lot of money to bring back Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton. They are over the second apron this year, and they’ll need to make a big move (like trading Jrue Holiday after he opts in to $39.4 million next season) to stay under that line next season.
The cap maneuvering will force Milwaukee to send players out rather than take players in, and that could be enough for Antetokounmpo to decide he’s not sticking around to see this through.
That kind of pressure is tough for a franchise to handle. Antetokounmpo has always been refreshingly honest, but he just opened the door to a season full of questions about his future. Teammates listen to those postgame press conferences too, and they might get sick of a non-committal Antetokounmpo in the midst of a challenging season full of load management and, essentially, planned losses.
And then there's the Miami situation with Damian Lillard. They have put all their offseason eggs in Dame’s basket, but the league has forced the Lillard camp to admit they will play for whichever team trades for him. The noise about “only Miami” has died down a bit, and the Blazers are exercising their leverage in this situation to wait out the Heat and possibly involve other teams.
Miami could move into the top portion of the East with a Lillard trade, but only if the trade goes the way we’ve seen it built in media reports. Getting Lillard for spare parts and Tyler Herro makes the Heat quite formidable. On top of that, there is some speculation that some of the more recognizable free agents on the market are waiting on this deal so they can sign with Miami and add to the depth.
But if the Blazers choose to go a different direction, that could siphon the spirit out of the Heat. Without Lillard, Miami is a worse version of last season’s team having lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. They’ll always outperform their expectations, but there's a real shot that, without a Lillard trade, this Heat run will end.
There are still strong challenges for Boston in the East. Cleveland will be tough again, having added Strus and Georges Niang to boost some weak 3-point shooting. Atlanta, beginning a full season under Quin Snyder, has the potential to make noise. Indiana could be surprisingly tough. Orlando, which gave Boston fits last season, could mature into a dangerous team.
But this summer has shown us that the Celtics are in a position to take control of the East. Obviously, they need some things to go right. They need Mazzulla, with a full summer and a revamped staff of assistants, to take a step forward. They need more from their stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They need their bench to step up. And obviously, they need guys with checkered injury histories to stay healthier than usual.
It’s no small feat, but the path is there for them to dominate the conference and head into the playoffs with home-court advantage. Of course, they need to actually use that advantage this time around, but that's another story for another time. Right now, optimism is justified for the Celtics. Once again, they control their destiny this season.
Let’s see if they can get it right.