Of all the words Bill Belichick used today - some that didn't include grunts and snorts - he strung together 37 in a row that I'm still processing. They came on the Greg Hill Show when the host of that program asked him if a team could create more cap space by shelling out more in guaranteed dollars.
"Temporarily, you can, but you can't sustain it, no," Belichick said. "You can't sustain the 20 years of success that we sustained by overspending every year without having to eventually pay those bills and play with a lesser team."
While you can't argue with the amount of success Belichick's Patriots have had in the long run, the recent history leaves me cold. Since beginning Tom Brady's final season 8-0, the Pats are 29-31, including two playoff appearances, losses in 2019 (at home vs. Tennessee) and 2022 (a shellacking in Buffalo).
Belichick admitted in year one PB (Post-Brady) the Pats were tapped financially, and that would explain the dip in performance (the team finished 7-9 with Cam Newton at quarterback). But what's happened since? Belichick reached into ownership's wallet for oodles of cash in free agency the following offseason and spent like my son the moment he got paid from his landscaping gig. In fact, like my son, he overspent (Hey Dad, can I borrow $20?), and the results were mixed at best. You'd do the Matt Judon deal again. But Davon Godchaux? Hunter Henry (like him, but not at that number)? Nelson Agholor? Jonnu Smith? Seems highly unlikely. And what did they get for it? Being competitive, sure, but championship-driven? No, that hasn't happened, nor does it appear like it will in 2023-24.
So, in Belichick's view, have the Pats been paying the tab for three years now, heading on four? If so, what are they doing over there at One Patriot Place? And why is that ok? In that same interview on WEEI, the coach gave you his rationale for the team's salary cap approach as he continued his answer to the initially noted question. He did so by naming names:
"Jacksonville back in '14, the Rams are going through it. Tampa's going through it now," he noted. "I'm not saying there's anything right or wrong with it, just a different way of doing things, and there's the results for doing it."
Both the Rams and Bucs have $74 million in dead cap this year, a league-high. Ok. But consider this: the Rams have won a Super Bowl more recently than the Pats. Ditto the Buccaneers. I don't remember the Jags overspending in that one particular year, although if you take the smarter view with the cap, they did outlay the most money in free agency over three years (2014-16) and had diddly poo to show for it, going 11-37 in that stretch. Of course, they were a joke of an organization (after a brief crest), and GM Dave Caldwell was eventually fired. He has yet to get another GM gig for apparent reasons. Also, Blake Bortles was their quarterback, and Gus Bradley was their head coach. Insert vomit emoji here.
Meanwhile, for a second straight offseason since their splurge in the winter and spring of '21, the Pats didn't buy any oversized ticket items in free agency and, lo and behold, their roster appears to be middling once again, primarily devoid of high-end talent, and reliant on coaching and depth to make up for it. I loved that approach when Brady was the quarterback. Now? It leaves something to be desired.
Offensively, the Pats are 29th in cap spending this season. Their highest-paid player? Henry, accounting for nearly 20% of that cap spending. Who's number two on that list? Smith, who you're paying to play for the Atlanta Falcons after two incredibly disappointing campaigns in Foxborough. Am I the only one whose head hurts reading that? Oh, but you can offset that by drafting a wide receiver in round two last year and a running back in round four. How's that working out for you? Tyquan Thornton has had another injury-plagued summer, and Pierre Strong was traded after 18 months on the roster for a developmental 26-year-old tackle.
With $15 million in cap space (which, as we know, can be manipulated in a number of ways…), the Pats have had room to add real pieces - DeAndre Hopkins, anybody? - but chose instead to guarantee a few million dollars to Ezekiel Elliott because someone like Strong didn't pan out. That means they could and should do more, and perhaps that's forthcoming, but for now, the money sits unused, leading me back to Belichick this morning.
"You want to use all your cap space and put the best team you can on the field," he said on WEEI. "If you're not spending to your cap, then that means you could have players you're choosing not to have. If you spend to your cap, you've fully exhausted all of your spending. But that comes over time. You can't look at it in a Polaroid snapshot. It's a multi-year process. So you can overspend one year, and then at some point, you're not going to be able to do that."
Ok, well, you did that in 2021. Why is this team still paying the price for that? And at what cost?