Donnelly: Where do the Bruins go from here without Patrice Bergeron?

There is no replacing Patrice Bergeron.

As the Bruins prepare to celebrate the team's centennial season, the B's are now without their heart-and-soul captain. Future first-line and top-six centermen will come and go in the next 100 years of the franchise, but there will never be another quite like Bergeron to fill the No. 37-sized hole in the top trio.

Nevertheless, no matter how long they actually knew Bergeron's decision, Boston is now officially staring reality in the face with training camp just 56 days away, set to begin on Sept. 20. Don Sweeney and Cam Neely said before the draft the front office had to operate as if Bergeron and David Krejci would not be returning. They still await No. 46's official call. 

"We've got to really kind of plan like they're not coming back until we hear otherwise," Neely told reporters in Nashville ahead of draft. "We would not be doing the organization service if we plan they are coming back and then we're told they're not."

Planning as if Bergeron and Krejci wouldn't be back leaves Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha in line to handle top-six duties. The incumbent Trent Frederic, still in need of a contract but still a center by trade, could pick up more responsibility on the third line. Additions like Morgan Geekie, Patrick Brown, Jesper Boqvist and Jayson Megna are capable of playing down the middle, although not in the premier parts of the lineup. Youngsters like Marc McLaughlin, Johnny Beecher and Georgii Merkulov, who has a top-six skillset, are looking to crack the NHL full-time. Ditto for Matthew Poitras, now the heir apparent in the system, no matter how far away he truly is. The spry 19-year-old's options are either in Boston or back in Guelph with the OHL this season. Brett Harrison could be a candidate one day as well, even if that day is unlikely to be the 2023-24 campaign.

The bill is due. Not only is Boston paying the piper for going all in on the record-setting 2022-23 season that went up in smoke two weeks into the playoffs, it's also hunkering down for the repercussions of draft miss after draft miss after draft miss for the last decade-plus. 

This has been gone over plenty amongst the talking heads, but here's a brief refresher. The 15th overall selection in 2015, winger Zach Senyshyn, could never lock down a spot in the NHL and is now headed for the German DEL next season. Meanwhile, the 16th pick, Mat Barzal, is a foundational center for the New York Islanders. The eighth overall pick in 2007, center Zach Hamill, never stuck around for more than a cup of coffee in the NHL, bouncing around the AHL before heading for Europe, like Senyshyn. The ninth pick, center Logan Couture, has 700 points in 927 NHL games, going into his fifth season as captain of the San Jose Sharks. 

That's not even mentioning the Tyler Seguin trade, let alone a slew of others with top-six potential who never panned out, including Jack Studnicka, who's time was up in a November 2022 deal that brought back minor-league goaltender Michael DiPietro and defense prospect Jonathan Myrenberg. 

With just $5.4 million in cap space, per CapFriendly – which could be maneuvered to approximately $6.2 in space, according to @BruinsCapSpace on Twitter – to re-sign Frederic and Jeremy Swayman, Bruins are now left with what they have sans Bergeron. Where do they go from here?

The here and now...

Coyle and Zacha are the top centers, barring an 11th-hour offseason trade with no viable options left on the free-agent market. In that case, the top-six is likely to look like:

Brad Marchand -- Charlie Coyle -- Jake DeBrusk
James van Riemsdyk -- Pavel Zacha -- David Pastrnak

We already got a preview of life without Bergeron (and Krejci) during the first round of the playoffs. Saddled with duties between Marchand – in line to become captain – and DeBrusk for Games 3 and 4 in Florida. Coyle at least looked the part, especially when he took matters into his own hands in Game 3, making the most of his audition in the top-six. 

In 9:07 of 5-on-5 time with Marchand-Coyle-DeBrusk together as a line, the Bruins out-attempted Florida 15-11, outshot them 10-5 and outscored them 1-0. Scoring chances were 7-5 for the Bruins (5-4 high-danger), and they had the best expected goals-for percentage (54.29) of any line for Boston, according to Natural Stat Trick. Coyle (6-foot-3, 223 pounds) was expectedly physically dominant, too, particularly on his second-period goal, when he made a beeline for the net to engage with Aleksander Barkov (6-3, 215). Try as he did, Barkov could not move Coyle off his spot as the latter got a stick on Marchand's shot to redirect it in for his first goal of the series.

Over the series as a whole, Boston and Florida matched up fairly evenly with that top trio on at 5-on-5. Shot attempts were split 24-24, goals were 1-1, scoring chances were 11-10 for the Bruins and high-danger chances were 6-8 for the Panthers. Coyle's line also began 14 shifts with a defensive zone face-off, compared to eight in the attacking zone and six in the neutral zone. 

The returns were stronger in a marginally larger regular season sample for Marchand-Coyle-DeBrusk. In 42:16 of 5-on-5 time together, shot attempts were 49-34 (59.04 percent) for Boston, shots were 22-17 (56.41), goals were 2-1, scoring chances were 26-14 (65) and high-danger chances were 9-6 (60) for the Bruins. 

"It's tough to replace a couple guys like that. You can't. You can't solely do that," Coyle told reporters in Florida, following Game 3, as he also provided a bit of foreshadowing. "It takes everyone. You could tell everyone kind of brought that tonight. ... You can't replace a Patrice Bergeron or a David Krejci. You just can't. But we do it together. Every guy pitches in. I thought it was a really solid effort all around. My game doesn't change too much, you know. I just try to do what I do best, no matter who I'm playing with. Just try to take advantage of a good opportunity."

Whether or not those samples are indicative of Coyle's long-term outlook as a top-six center remains to be seen. To this point, No. 13 is yet to prove that he can stick in the top-six for a prolonged period with 2021-22 serving as a prime example before Erik Haula took over the gig on the second line midseason. 

Meanwhile, the Bruins feel very comfortable with Zacha as a top-six center – a fine No. 2, in an ideal world. Naturally, this isn't an ideal world, but like Coyle, Zacha excelled in his top six auditions toward the end of the regular season and in the playoffs. 

Obviously, his line with Pastrnak is now down Tyler Bertuzzi, a rather significant piece to the trio's chemistry toward the end. Although his playmaking acumen is not in the same stratosphere as Bertuzzi, Boston is hoping van Reimsdyk's penchant for success in front of the net and on the power play can help pick up some of the slack left behind. 

With Bertuzzi-Zacha-Pastrnak together in the playoffs, 5-on-5 shot attempts were 31-26 (54.39 percent) in the Bruins' favor, shots were 19-11 (63.33), goals were 1-1, scoring chances were 14-11 (56) and high-danger chances were 4-3 (57.14) in 26:25 of ice time. They were on for nine offensive zone face-offs but just three in the neutral zone and five in their own end.

The regular season sample, 73:54 of 5-on-5 time together, saw comparable success with shot attempts favoring Boston, 83-66 (55.7 percent), and goals coming in at a 7-4 differential. The B's also had advantages in shots, 48-43 (52.75), and scoring chances, 45-40 (52.94 percent). They were similarly sheltered defensively with 40 attacking zone draws to 16 in neutral ice and 20 in the defensive end. 

Zacha proved he can stick as a top-six winger over the bulk of the season. As a center, he won 45.3 percent of his face-offs in the regular season, and he's 46.2 for his career. While he improved to 48.4 percent in the playoffs, there is clearly room to grow. 

They won't be remaining the Selke Trophy after him, but Coyle has the two-way acumen to fit what Boston has sought with the Marchand-Bergeron-DeBrusk combination in recent years. He had his best year at the face-off dot last season, winning 52.6 percent of his draws (48 for his career) before owning a 56.4 percent success rate at the dot in the playoffs. 

As currently constructed, the two possible combinations fit the identity Boston had in its top-six last season. One line that is trusted and effective in all three zones, and another that can get its fill offensively, perhaps trading chances with the opposition as we saw with the Czech line before the line with Bertuzzi. 

There are options besides those two combinations as well. Although Game 2 was a different story, Zacha meshed well with Marchand and DeBrusk in Game 1 of the first round, serving as one of Boston's most effective forwards at 5-on-5. The Bruins held a 17-9 (65.38 percent) edge in shot attempts with the 26-year-old on the ice. Shots were also 8-3 in their favor (72.73 percent) and Boston outscored Florida, 2-1. In all situations, the B's doubled up the Panthers in scoring chances (8-4) with Zacha on the ice, and high-danger opportunities were 5-2, according to Natural Stat Trick. 

"It speaks to the leadership underneath Patrice, and it also speaks to our depth," Jim Montgomery said after Game 1. "We're very confident with Zacha in the middle. We know in the future, he's going to be an excellent top-two center for us, and he showed that tonight."

In the bottom-six, there are plenty of different combinations to tinker with.

A third line of Boqvist, Frederic and Geekie provides three different players who can slot down the middle, even if Boqvist projects as more of a winger at this point. Perhaps Jakub Lauko slots in as an energetic speedster on the wing.

On the fourth line potentially with Milan Lucic, Megna, Brown, McLaughlin or Beecher could all serve as the pivot. Brown, Megna and McLaughlin could also provide a second face-off option if on the wing, too. 

Merkulov's skillset is not suited for fourth-line or extra forward duties. He'll be pushing for a spot in the top-nine or even the top-six out of camp, and if he doesn't, he's likely headed for more time in Providence, where he'll shoulder heavy top-six minutes. It would not out of the question that we see him in an NHL audition during the season. The same goes for McLaughlin and Beecher if they do not make the final roster, whether as depth or fully in the lineup. 

The long haul...

There's no question that skill players like Merkulov, Poitras and Harrison are currently the best hopes in the system. Although they're natural centers, it's entirely possible that Merkulov and Harrison may have to make their way as wingers if they stick at the next level. Poitras' top-six potential as a center is evidently there, between his hockey sense, playmaking and hands, but there are areas to grow, especially physically. Even if he makes a strong case in training camp, the 5-11, 175-pound teenager could be well-served by another year in junior. 

Other prospects like McLaughlin, Beecher, Trevor Kuntar or Riley Duran are unlikely to ever be more than role players in the NHL. Dans Locmelis continues to be an intriguing prospect but is a ways off. 

Help is on the way, but aside from Merkulov, it's not exceptionally close. Even he may be at least another season from becoming a full-timer. 

There are potential trade options like Elias Lindholm or Mark Scheifele, but given Boston's cap situation and assets as of the current moment, a deal remains unlikely. They could, however, remain options in a loaded 2024 free-agent class. Boston projects to have over $20 million in cap space next offseason, perhaps in the $29 million neighborhood. 

That loaded 2024 free-agent class could include the likes of Lindholm, Scheifele, Auston Matthews and Chandler Stephenson. Potentially landing first-line center like the first three mentioned or a top-sixer like Stephenson could go a long way in the Bruins' long-term outlook down the middle for the next wave. 

The prognosis...

The Bruins were going to be worse than last season, no matter what, and that's easy to say, considering how unlikely it is we see a team gunning for the wins and points records anytime soon. 

As Sweeney touched on around the draft and free agency, the B's will have to be reliant on their strengths – the league's best goaltending tandem in Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman as well as one of the top blue lines with Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo as the big three on the backend. The wings remain strong with Pastrnak, Marchand and DeBrusk. In the supporting cast, the onus falls on Frederic and Geekie to seize the opportunity that will come with a likely increase in responsibility. Van Riemsdyk remains a case study if he can return to form now that he's out of a tanking franchise. 

With Bergeron, I had Boston as a playoff team, but jockeying for positioning as they had in 2021-22. Without No. 37, they're still fighting for positioning, likely as a Wild Card team. 

Nevertheless, the outlook remains similar – a team that is still built to be competitive, unlikely to bottom out.