The summer Celtics begin their Vegas schedule tomorrow afternoon at 3:00 p.m. Eastern time against Miami. Here are few thoughts about the summer kids and the summer business being done by Brad Stevens and the Celtics.
A LOT OF WORK TO DO
I’m sure the Celtics have a bunch of those “unfinished business” t-shirts still hanging around from their postseason run. Whatever they have left can be dumped in Stevens’ office because it’s obvious at this point that he’s nowhere near done with remaking the Celtics.
I started out this offseason a few weeks ago with a piece asking “What the hell is the new CBA going to do to this roster?” Now, a couple of weeks later, I think it’s clear it’s having a big impact.
Not only are Marcus Smart and Grant Williams both gone, but what’s left behind is less versatile, which puts more pressure on individual players and increases the reliance on more specific schemes. Let’s dive into the depth chart one more time.
Ball handlers: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Payton Pritchard, Dalano Banton
Wings: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Oshae Brissett, Sam Hauser, Justin Champagnie, Jordan Walsh
Bigs: Kristaps Porzingis, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Luke Kornett
The switchability in some of these lineups has taken a real hit. The days of being able to throw Grant Williams in one of the forward slots to switch everything 1-4 with a shot blocker behind them seem done.
White can switch some but not onto bigger players. Brissett will add some versatility but how much will he add offensively in those lineups? Horford is the only big who can switch but he’s 37 now and I’d rather not tax him like that in the regular season.
I think Boston is in a little bit of a bind because of this. They added Porzingis, and he adds a lot. He’s going to have to maintain his elite rim protection, stay out of foul trouble, and stay healthy if Boston’s defense is going to be good. This will now be a heavy drop coverage team, especially because Joe Mazzulla will certainly buy into the concept of giving up all the mid-range shots teams want.
The Celtics will almost certainly move away from the switching defense which has been a hallmark of theirs and go into chasing ball handlers over the top of screens, running them into the drop, and letting them take 18-footers with rearview contests. With Porzingis and Robert Williams guarding the rim, Boston will live with giving up mid-range shots.
The only issue there is those shots can be killers in the playoffs, as we’ve seen already. And if Boston is not executing that defense with absolute precision, they're at risk for letting shooters get blistering hot.
Offensively, they lost ball handling and playmaking. The Celtics can run more pick-and-roll with Porzingis, but their best pick-and-roll ball handler now lives in Memphis. There's pressure on White to make better reads off the bounce while still maintaining his incredible shooting from last season.
There's nothing that shows me this year’s offense will be much different than last year’s. In fact, with one less ball handler on the floor, it seems like Boston is going to lean more into 3-point shooting.
We’ll see how the rest of this summer goes. Brad Stevens still has more room to maneuver, so I’m not going to get too worked up about things right now. Speaking of which …
“SEISMIC STRIKE”
The Globe’s Adam Himmelsbach got the aggregators in a tizzy with this section of his most recent piece:
“The Celtics do not have a plan to start a youth movement centered on draft picks. This capital will eventually serve as currency in a larger deal, with the Celtics well-positioned for a seismic strike, league sources said.”
You can’t write the words “seismic strike” without getting some attention. I even dedicated a section to that on my podcast:
To me, that passage means Boston has the salaries and the draft capital to make a major move. They are positioned to pounce should the new CBA make a situation suddenly untenable in a surprise city.
Personally, I think this year is, aside from a run at a championship, a bit of an audition to figure out which two of the three stars Boston is going to keep past this season.
Brown is going to get his super-max extension without any of the games I suggested (though, as an aside, I don’t see why some super-max player somewhere isn’t jumping on the 10% cap increases to do shorter contracts to increase his money). He’ll get a no-trade clause for one year after he signs it, but after that he can be moved if need be. Porzingis will also be tradeable next summer. I’m assuming Tatum is staying.
A combination of Brown or Porzingis with one of Brogdon, White, Robert Williams, or Horford can be used should a big-name superstar become available. Boston's combination of picks, including the metric ton of second-rounders they’ve accumulated this summer, can help grease some skids.
So they're positioned to do something big just like a hawk is positioned to snag a squirrel when it’s sitting in a tree. It doesn’t mean anything will come along, but if it does, then they're in business.
W2W4 IN VEGAS
Everyone, repeat after me:
“We’re not going to overreact to summer league performances.”
“We’re not going to overreact to summer league performances.”
“We’re not going to overreact to summer league performances.”
My general rule of thumb is summer league success is generally meaningless, while summer league failure is problematic and needs closer inspection.
We have to remember that there are only four players who have a chance at being affiliated with the Celtics: Jordan Walsh (signed to a four-year, $7.8 million contract under the new second-round exception), JD Davison (who will likely return on a two-way deal), Justin Champagnie (currently on a non-guaranteed contract, with $50,000 guaranteeing on August 1 and the rest guaranteeing on opening night if he’s not waived), and Dalano Banton (recently signed to a two-year deal, with a team option in the second year).
Everyone else on the roster is auditioning for a two-way spot or for someone else in the house at the Cox Pavilion or the Thomas & Mack Center. That means a bunch of guys are going to be showing what they can do rather than trying to feed Walsh or Banton for shots. There will be guys on the floor with different motivations, so there will be obstacles in everyone’s way.
The number one thing I want to see is good intent. If Davison throws a pass out of bounds when someone should have been cutting, I’m not going to hold it against Davison. If he’s making the right play and someone didn’t read it right, then that's not really on him.
I want to see where Davison is as far as a starting point. What kind of reads is he making? Is he taking good shots? Where are his defensive instincts?
I don’t care if he misses every shot in summer league (okay, maybe I’ll care a little), but it’s more about the process for all of these guys.