What are the chances the Bruins could swing a trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois?

Pierre-Luc Dubois is on the trade market (again). 

Dubois and his camp have reportedly informed the Winnipeg Jets that the young center would prefer a trade this summer, according to The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun, after telling the team last season that he would not sign a long-term extension. 

Winnipeg still has control of the situation, though, with Dubois headed for restricted free agency, still a year away from being eligible for unrestricted. 

The Jets have some options. First, they can sign the 24-year-old to the bare-minimum one-year, $6 million qualifying offer he is due. Then, the two sides can ride it out to the trade deadline or after next season when he can walk or his rights are moved. Dubois is also eligible for arbitration. Secondly – and likely preferred by all parties, especially the player – Winnipeg can find a trade partner this summer, maximize on Dubois' value and the two sides can move on, potentially by way of a sign-and-trade.

LeBrun wrote, "My understanding is that veteran agent Pat Brisson has let Winnipeg know that it’s probably best to move on this summer rather than do a one-year deal with the restricted free agent and stretch this out further. ... What we don’t know at this point, is just how adamant Dubois will be about getting this resolved this summer. Enough to sit out the start of the season? My sense is everyone involved hopes it doesn’t get to that point. Again, I think Brisson wants to work with, not against, the Jets to get a trade done."

Going back to last year's indication that Dubois would not sign long-term in Winnipeg, the Canadiens have felt like the clubhouse favorite to land the Quebec native – Dubois is from Ste-Agathe-des-Monts, roughly an hour's drive northwest of Montreal. It's an easy decision to go for Dubois from the Habs' end of things, as they look to hit the upswing of their rebuild. 

It also should be a no-doubt call for a number of teams in need of a talented, young center, like the Bruins. 

Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin reported in The Athletic that the Dubois camp will submit a list of teams he'd be willing to sign with long-term in order to expedite a move. 

Boston may or may not be included there, but Don Sweeney would be wise to at least inquire.

What would Dubois bring to Boston?

Dubois would instantly solve a long-term need for the Bruins, currently without a strong contingency plan for a possible life after Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, save for a stop-gap of Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle, who in small sample sizes in the regular season and playoffs proved they could at least hold it down in the top six. Whether or not either are viable options for longer stretches remains to be seen.

Should one of Bergeron or Krejci spurn retirement and return, the B's would be in better shape down the middle, but would still have long-term question marks staring them down with the organization lacking in the prospect cupboard. Center prospects like Georgii Merkulov, Brett Harrison and Matthew Poitras have shown promise and certainly have higher-end talent. There are higher-floor youngsters like John Beecher and Marc McLaughlin, too, even if neither appears to have the same offensive upside as the previous three. Merkulov, Harrison and Poitras have the potential to become top-six centers in the NHL, but can they be a No. 1 center? That's still unclear.

That's where Dubois comes in. 

The 6-foot-4, 214-pound center is exactly what the Bruins (and their fans) look for: a powerful forward with a nose for the front of the net, capable of productive, first-line minutes. Dubois has hit at least 20 goals in four of his six seasons in the NHL (he likely would have hit had COVID not cut 2019-20 short, too). The hulking center had 27 tucks in 73 games for the Jets this season, one shy of tying the career-best he set in 81 games in 2021-22. Perhaps, there's 30-goal potential in there. He's also hit at least 60 points three times, including in two straight seasons as he comes off a career-high 63 points in 2022-23, thanks to a new-best 36 assists. 

With Dubois on the ice this season, Winnipeg had a plus-13 goal differential at 5-on-5 (plus-six, high-danger), according to Natural Stat Trick. The Jets mostly controlled play with 51.97 percent of shot attempts, 53.39 percent of scoring chances and 55.16 percent of high-danger chances. Winnipeg's on-ice shooting percentage with Dubois on at 5-on-5 was 9.92, the most of any Jets forward with the team for the entire season. 

The pivot also uses his frame and hard-nosed style to his benefit as well. He delivered 71 hits this season after 112 in 2021-22, eclipsing the century mark three times. He's also been able to get under his opponents' skin, leading the Jets and finishing in the upper echelon of the NHL with 1.83 penalties drawn per 60 among skaters who played a minimum of 20 games in 2022-23. He was 14th in the league last season with 2.00. Since he entered the NHL in 2017, Dubois ranks 17th (1.46) among skaters who've appeared in at least 200 games.

One catch is Dubois isn't exactly the most proficient player in his own zone. He rarely was out for a penalty kill in Winnipeg, and his face-off percentage was sub-50 percent at 48.89. He's been sub-50 percent in every season of his NHL career. Dubois also began 69.3 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone this season (69.8 over his career). Granted, the Bruins, or any other team, wouldn't exactly be paying him for his defensive prowess, but any improvement would be a benefit, especially at the face-off dot. 

Something else worth mentioning, albeit not really a concern, is Dubois has produced quite a bit on the power play, too, especially in the last two seasons. He was third among Jets forward in power-play time and had 23 power-play points (11 goals) this year after 19 points (15 goals) the previous year. 

Another important factor is this would be Dubois' third team in seven seasons as an NHLer. Make of that whatever you will. The relationship in Columbus at the start of his career was fractured by the end, and he didn't have a say in where he was traded, winding up in Winnipeg. On one side of it, you can look at it as players have no say in where they're drafted, and Dubois is trying to use whatever leverage he can to land in a desirable location. On the other hand, this is a talented player still in his early 20s now on his second formal trade request in his career. The player could (and probably does) have his own faults in why things went south. 

Perhaps most importantly, he's still reaching his prime, and he has shown flashes of being that No. 1 center. As mentioned, there's likely 30-goal potential in Dubois as well as the possibility for more point production, in addition to overall growth in his game. He plays a style that is endearing to a market like Boston and one that should translate into the postseason (10g, 16a, 26p in 38 playoff games), just ask Matthew Tkachuk. 

What would it take to acquire Dubois?

What helps the Bruins here is the Jets might not be looking for a haul of draft picks and prospects that we've grown accustomed to in these situations. 

"I think with the Jets ... you know, they don't want to rebuild," Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman said on the Jeff Marek Show. "Obviously, some futures will be part of this, but they want players who can help them now."

So, instead of talking about a return of a first-round pick, a prospect and possibly a roster player – like many speculated for months in relation to Jakob Chychrun – we're possibly looking at a DNA-altering move like the Florida Panthers and Calgary Flames got together on in the Tkachuk deal for Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. 

Boston could be in a position for a deal like that, given its cap crunch this summer (just under $5 million in space). Players like Taylor Hall ($6 million), Linus Ullmark ($5 million), Jake DeBrusk ($4 million), Matt Grzelcyk ($3.6875 million) and Derek Forbort ($3 million) could find themselves the subject of rumors this offseason. The guesswork has already started on who might be on the outs for cap relief either way.

Ullmark would make sense for Winnipeg, considering they may also be strongarmed into moving on from Connor Hellebuyck, but it's possible the Jets are on Ullmark's no-trade list. 

What was said of the netminder could be said of Hall and his trade protection, even if there's a possible fit as a top-six winger. Winnipeg has been there, done that with Forbort, and Grzelcyk has one year left on his deal as he approaches the wrong side of 30. Maybe general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff would bite if he felt he could extend Grzlecyk. DeBrusk is a year away from unrestricted free agency, but he's still 26. Winnipeg would be closer to home in Edmonton, too. 

If the Bruins wanted to engage in the type of move that truly shakes up the core, maybe that's where someone like Brandon Carlo (four more years at $4.1 million) comes in. Again, he has trade protections that could nix Winnipeg as a destination. The same could be said of Coyle (three more years at $5.25 million), but given his age and trade protection, it might not make sense. 

Even if a trade might center around roster players, futures would still probably be involved in some form. Boston does not have a first-round pick until 2025 (they'd be wise to hang onto it), no second-rounders through 2025 and two third-rounders in that window. Perhaps attaching a prospect like Harrison, Merkulov or Poitras – or someone else – alleviates the need for a pick to be involved. 

Either way, there would be a ton of moving parts for the Bruins to make it happen.

Another aid for Boston is Dubois could be willing to go somewhere other than the Habs, perhaps another team already in a spot to compete. Friedman and Marek agreed despite the player's preference, they believe it is not absolutely Montreal-or-bust for Dubois. That opens up the market for other teams, like the Bruins or others to throw their hats in the ring. 

"I think Winnipeg's big challenge with Dubois is going to be, can you convince other teams out there's a market for him beyond Montreal?" Friedman speculated. "I don't think it's only Montreal for Dubois, but I think we all believe it's his vast preference."

AFP Analytics projects Dubois to sign an eight-year extension in the $7.5 million neighborhood, but as a young center still scratching the surface of his potential, Dubois could command more on the market. Basu and Godin reported Dubois might be in the $9 million tax bracket, considering his comparables – Tkachuk ($9.5 million), Mat Barzal ($9.5 million) and Roope Hintz ($8.45 million).  

But again, there's a caveat that could help Boston's case, even if only slightly. 

"The sense we get is Dubois would be willing to adjust his salary demands based on the situation of his new team," Basu and Godin wrote. "For example, he could accept slightly less money to go to a Stanley Cup contender than he would to a rebuilding team like the Canadiens."

Boston should still be a playoff team next season. Adding Dubois in a sing-and-trade only helps that outlook for both the short and long term as he'd join the next wave of Zacha, David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm. The Habs are still a little ways off from seriously contending. 

The verdict?

There are certainly a lot of hoops Sweeney and the front office would need to jump through in order to facilitate a deal. 

Facilitating a deal in the first place would also be assuming a team like Boston is a desired destination in the first place. 

Even if the Bruins are on the shortlist, it's unlikely they could offer a premium return that Winnipeg might seek elsewhere. Montreal is certainly bubbling over with futures. If a team like the Los Angeles Kings were in the mix, they're certainly well-stocked both in terms of futures (prospects, especially) and pieces to help the Jets now. 

That's not even getting into the B's salary cap hurdles. Boston doesn't have enough space as is to get through the business at the top of its checklist, like re-signing Jeremy Swayman and potentially taking a run at Tyler Bertuzzi. Perhaps a move fo Dubois steers the Bruins away from pursuing Bertuzzi. Then it's easier to clear enough space to accommodate the in-house business as well as a big-money, big-term extension for Dubois. But an aggressive play to potentially re-sign Bertuzzi and trade for Dubois would truly need mountains to be moved. Either way, there would be some serious heavy lifting on Sweeney's end. 

Whenever and however this trade goes down, it'll be another interesting case study for these types of situations. Perhaps, we're left asking 'That's it?' like the Chychrun and Mark Stone trades. Or we see a seismic move like the Tkachuk deal. Dubois' floor as a second-line center and ceiling as a franchise pivot, coupled with his past and current trade requests, make his potential trade return and contract offer hard to gauge. 

Again, Boston should at least inquire. There's no harm in that, but the deck seems to be stacked against Sweeney here.