Donnelly: The cases for and against moving Linus Ullmark

Barely a week removed from their stunning first-round collapse at the hands of the Florida Panthers, who are suddenly the hottest team in hockey, the Bruins' offseason is kicking into gear. 

One topic of conversation that has certainly picked up on social media, comment sections, message boards, sports radio, etc. is the idea of trading Linus Ullmark. But does it make sense?

Well, yes and no. 

There is no doubt that Don Sweeney is strapped for cash this summer after last year's all-in push.

As has been noted, Boston is left with roughly $4.9 million in cap space to play around with this offseason since Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci are owed a combined $4.5 million in performance bonuses. Bergeron signed a one-year contract worth $2.5 million ($1.5 million base salary and $1 million signing bonus). There was also a $2.5 million performance incentive for Bergeron if he played 10 games. Krejci is coming off a one-year, $1 million deal (no signing bonus), which included a $1 million incentive for playing at least 10 games (like Bergeron), $500k for 20 games and $500k if the B's qualified for the playoffs.

Each easily-attainable bonus helped Boston compensate the two franchise stars fairly while also not taking a huge bite out of the salary cap for 2022-23. They'd have to live with the consequences against the cap in 2023-24 after a deep playoff run. Now, the problem is the consequences came knocking, minus the deep playoff run. 

There are moves that will need to be made, like buying out or dumping Mike Reilly's $3 million contract, moving on from Derek Forbort ($3 million) or Matt Grzelcyk ($3.6875 million) and possibly shedding salary via a Taylor Hall ($6 million) or Jake DeBrusk ($4 million) trade. All of it is on the table with the Reilly move standing as the most sure thing of the lot. 

One move alone won't ease Sweeney's monetary migraine, though, which brings us to the idea of moving Ullmark, currently making $5 million against the cap for two more seasons. The soon-to-be 30-year-old currently carries a full no-move clause, but beginning July 1, it becomes a 16-team no-trade list for 2023-24. For 2024-25, it becomes a 15-team list. 

You'd have to imagine there'd be a market for the odds-on Vezina Trophy favorite elsewhere besides Boston, even if the Bruins don't want to go to that extreme.

So, here are the cases for and against moving him:

Why it makes sense

Look, general managers will always say they're not doing their job if they're not asking about everyone on every team or listening on everyone on their own team. 

There will undoubtedly be teams that inquire about Ullmark's services. A number of teams with uncertainty at the position come to mind, whether it be Los Angeles, New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Columbus, San Jose and so on. That's not to say any of those teams would end up on his trade list, though. 

Boston would probably never have a chance to sell higher on Ullmark, considering the marginal likelihood that he can repeat this season's dominant form.

Ullmark is coming off his best regular season in the NHL, taking the triple crown after leading the league in save percentage (.938), goals-against average (1.89) and wins (40).

Among qualified goaltenders (min. 25 games), he was second in the league in goals saved above expected (42.4) and first in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (.883), according to MoneyPuck. He was fourth in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5 (.871), per Natural Stat Trick. 

There will be a regression of some sort, albeit he likely won't drop off a cliff. His .917 save percentage and 2.45 GAA during his first season in Black and Gold were more emblematic of what he had been throughout his career up to this point. 

Jeremy Swayman is rising among the league's best as well. He was fourth in GAA (2.27) and save percentage (.920) in addition to having the third-most shutouts in the NHL (four). He finished eighth in goals saved above expected (24) and third in goals saved above expected per 60 (.715). His .870 high-danger save percentage was tied for fifth. 

Ullmark never played as many games in his career with 49 in the regular season before an additional six in the playoffs. His body broke down. There were reports of illness early in the first round as well as a "debilitating" injury that plagued him as the series wore on. He posted an .896 save percentage and a 3.33 GAA. There was the overtime gaffe in Game 5 before giving up six goals in Game 6. Swayman took over for Game 7.

"Looking at it now, this is going to be one of those things that’s going to haunt me. It is. God’s honest truth," Ullmark said. "Being in a position that me and Sway are in as goalies when we are not good enough, it shows. It’s very easy to see that. It’s pretty evident. That’s also the beauty of it. When you’re on your A-game, that also shows.”

Ullmark remained mum on his injury status last week.

“You know what? Here’s the deal. We all go through things in life and we all go through things when it comes to playoff times. We all battle our own things, whether it’s mentally or physically, we all have our stuff," Ullmark said. "Yeah, it’s pretty evident that I didn’t play the way that I wanted to. It wasn’t as good as I wanted to be, unfortunately at the worst time possible. That’s something I have to live with. ... You want to feel at your best when push comes to shove. When you’re not, you just got to deal with it. That’s the hand you’ve been dealt."

In the 2022 first round against Carolina, Ullmark gave up eight goals on 57 shots as Boston fell behind 2-0 in the series. Swayman took over for the remaining five games of the series.

Swayman, a pending RFA, is due a raise coming off of his entry-level deal and seems poised to take the keys to the crease soon. In the minors, Brandon Bussi and Kyle Keyser have shown promise to potentially take a step forward as a backup. Bussi in particular has emerged as an under-the-radar prospect with a .924 save percentage and 2.40 GAA in 32 regular season games as an AHL rookie. He had a .926 and 2.28 in four playoff games for the P-Bruins, who fell in the first round as well.

Given the value of his stock, Boston could address multiple areas of need in one fell swoop with an Ullmark trade in conjunction with other moves. Sweeney would gain an additional $5 million in cap space, creating room to re-sign pending free agents, like Swayman, and make additions. The B's could take their chances on a cheaper backup behind Swayman if they feel Bussi or Keyser need more seasoning.

Boston would also be able to recoup some assets they shipped out in recent trade deadlines, whether by way of draft picks or younger players, as it tries to shape the next core even if Bergeron and/or Krejci return.

Why it doesn't

Now, there's the argument that the Bruins shouldn't mess with the good thing they've got going. 

Ullmark formed the league's best goaltending situation with Swayman (24 wins) as Boston became the first team in NHL history to have a 40-win and 20-win goalie. The two took home the Jennings Trophy after the Bruins allowed the fewest goals-against of any team in the league this season with 177. They were 36 goals ahead of the second-place Carolina Hurricanes. 

It's a duo that over half the league would clamor for. 

The tandem approach served the Bruins and the two goaltenders extremely well. That is until they went away from it in the playoffs. Ullmark had never handled that type of workload during the regular season, and Jim Montgomery, who deflected to Bob Essensa frequently when it came to goaltending decisions, and the rest of his staff failed Ullmark. It left both him and an ice-cold Swayman in difficult positions late in the series.

Montgomery has assumed his share of criticism for not turning to Swayman sooner, whether because of whatever Ullmark had dealt with or that the goalie rotation was a clear recipe for success.

“I think that everyone that works in this —like you guys, it’s very easy, and also something that everybody does when things aren't going the way they want to is that they’re trying to find a scapegoat. Right now, everybody is going at different directions. They’re going at Monty, they’re going up top, they’re going at me, they’re going at different people. That’s not what we’re about," Ullmark said. "We lose as a team, we win as a team. We’ve done that throughout the whole season. We try to do it as well now in the playoffs as well. Unfortunately, we lost four games in this series. That cost us to not go on to the second round, and that’s what it is. That’s human nature. 

"Trying to find a scapegoat when things turn to shit. It’s natural, but it’s also not the right thing to do. I do love Monty. He’s been great for us all season long. I have full faith in him and whatever decisions he makes out there. He’s one of the best coaches, if not the best coach that I’ve had.”

A motivated Ullmark could keep up his strong form, even if this season's dominant numbers remain unlikely to follow.

“For sure. We’re going to run it back hard next time. That’s all I can think about," he said. "The motivation and the inspiration that you get from these [losses] is huge. All I can think about right now is I want to get back into the gym, get back on the ice, and just run it right back and show them that that was a fluke and that we’re better than this.” 

Although not the most important factor (it is a business, after all), Swayman and Ullmark have undeniable chemistry, something they feel has helped them on the ice as well.

"He’s one of those people, too, that I am just so fortunate to know and get to experience life with. He’s taught me so much, and we’ve learned from each other," Swayman said after Game 7. "It goes beyond the rink; it goes into family. To be a part of his family and him a part of mine is something that I will forever cherish, and I am just so lucky to have a partner like him — and hopefully for a really long time.” 

As tempting as it may be to look to Bussi or Keyser as the next in-house option, they are unproven. Bussi in particular, also an RFA, has only had one season as a professional. He'll likely need more time in the AHL. Swayman may not be fully ready to become the 1A or bonafide starter. If he isn't, any potential backup the Bruins bring in would likely still be a downgrade from Ullmark. 

Are those risks the Bruins would be willing to take?

Even with his need for a raise, Swayman, who has arbitration rights, might be in line for a bridge deal in the $3-4.5 million neighborhood. Jake Oettinger (three years, $4 million per), Spencer Knight (three years, $4.5 million per) and Carter Hart (three years, $3.979 million per) are Swayman's closest comparables, especially in terms of experience and potential at the times of their signings. Said bridge deal could line up with the end of Ullmark's contract in 2025, when Swayman would be hitting his prime, presumably in line to take over as the clear-cut No. 1. 

Remember, Tuukka Rask was the future in-waiting behind Tim Thomas for a few seasons until taking over the gig in 2013.

The Bruins would free up cap space by moving Ullmark, sure, but how large of a return would he bring back? While Boston may play the role of a used-car salesman, toting his other-worldly regular season and fairly manageable dollars as a top-flight goaltender, the detractors will look at his health, playoff performances and previous career numbers. It's unlikely they'd get a top prospect or maybe even a first-round pick. 

Unless there's a bidding war or a team gets silly with an offer for Ullmark, would it be worth trying to fix what may not be broken?