It shouldn't be hard for the Red Sox to improve over last year -- not when last year resulted in a losing record and a last-place finish.
So, they'll be better. How much better is subject to debate.
Is there a path to a wild card spot in the American League? Perhaps, but the Sox would need seven or eight things to all go right for that to happen. And how often does a team go 7-for-7 in that regard?
It's far more likely that they get, say, five or six things out of those eight.
And where would that leave them? In my mind, that could mean 83 wins and perhaps a step up to fourth in the AL East, with the Orioles taking a slight step backward.
But for more clarity, we turned to a veteran scout who saw a lot of the Red Sox and got his expert take -- on the team as a whole, and on most of the players on the roster, more specifically.
Here's what he had to offer:
GENERAL IMPRESSIONS: "There are obviously some definite holes when you lose (Xander) Bogaerts and guys like that. I don't know if that's a hole you can ever fill. That will be tough. I think a lot is going to depend on the health of the pitching because if (Corey) Kluber or (Chris) Sale or one of those guys go down and all of a sudden you're looking at the next wave, it gets scary.
"I think there's some positives, some things to be positive about. But I didn't walk out of Red Sox camp thinking to myself, 'Wow, this is going to be a really good team this year.' Quite frankly, if they get to .500, I think it might be a solid year for them."
POSITION PLAYERS
1B Triston Casas: "Look, there's upside there and I think the bat will continue to play. I have some major concerns about his ability to handle some things offensively. He takes the ball the other way, but he doesn't handle soft, off-speed and changeups on the outer half of the plate and I think that will get exposed as we get into the season. Obviously, the personality is different and we're going to have to see if that fits at the big league level. There's talent there, no question, but I have concerns about whether he's going to mash enough to do enough damage to make him a formidable run producer.
2B Christian Arroyo: "For me, he's always been a backup-type player. I've never thought of him as an everyday guy, mostly because of health, so it will be interesting to see if he can do that. But for me, I think there are better options if you're trying to win to run out at second base.''
SS Kiké Hernandez: "I'd love to sit here and tell you I think it's going to work. There were some plays in spring training that he made when I was like, 'OK, this will work.' And then there were others where I thought, 'If this happens in the regular season, this could turn into a six- or seven-run inning. I think he's a good player, I think there's talent there. But it scares the hell out of me to think of him as an everyday shortstop. (I don't see) the instincts or the quick-twitch reactions to balls to think that he could be a solid-average shortstop.''
3B Rafael Devers: "He's the Dude. He's going to have to be. It's one thing when Batman has Robin, but it's another when Batman (Bogaerts) goes away. That's a lot to put on him to carry and hopefully, he doesn't put too much pressure on himself.''
LF Masataka Yoshida: "I didn't get to see a lot of him (because he was away at the WBC), but what I did see of him and what I've seen in the past, I like him. I like the bat. It all comes down to how much power he's actually going to have. I do like his approach and I think he's going to hit. But does he have enough power or is he more of an Andrew Benintendi-type. You'd be pretty happy if you got that. But it's going to be an adjustment. It's going to come down to power.''
CF Adam Duvall: "To sit here and say that I thought someone would ask Duvall to play center field regularly, I'd be lying to you. He got a little more comfortable as the spring went along, but it's still a huge risk. I've always loved the way he swings the bat. I love his power. There's a little concern with handling breaking balls, but he can hit a fastball. He'll be just fine in that order, and in that ballpark. And he's a great guy, a great teammate. The makeup is off the charts for him.''
RF Alex Verdugo: "If Alex Verdugo would say out of his own head, I think he'd be such a better player. But you can almost see the hamster wheel turning. Dude, just go play. But there's all the extra with him. Can you just go play baseball and not worry about whether your chains look good and not worry about working on your swing in between pitches? I don't ever see the great ones do that. He brings attention to himself and I think it distracts more than it helps. I think what you saw from him offensively last year, that's probably what he is. He's fine in the outfield -- he's fine, not great. He can throw. But he gets in his own damn way all the time.''
C Reese McGuire: "I'm blown away by what he's doing offensively. The approach looks really, really good. I really like the adjustments he's made. His hands look better, he's getting the barrel out better, making hard contact. I was encouraged by what I saw this spring. If he can roll that into the year and turn that into 90-100 or so games, that will be a hell of a pickup for them and a great season for him.''
DH Justin Turner: "I always worry about guys who are with one team for a long time, then switch teams late in their career. You hope you get just as much (contributions) in the clubhouse as you do on-field production. I think he's fine. There are times when the bat speed is still there. As spring went along, he got better. You do worry about his body type. If he starts to slow down and gets a little thicker, it usually doesn't end well.''
BENCH
C Connor Wong: "He's always been athletic, but I've thought of him as an up-and-down guy (from Triple A to the majors). He's definitely a backup; I've never seen him as an everyday guy. He's not the greatest receiver, but he gets by on his athletic ability.''
OF Rob Refsnyder: "Nice little player and can put together some solid ABs, but there's never been anything I saw where I was like, 'Man, we've got to have this guy on our team.' He does crush lefties and regardless of the outcome, he does have quality at-bats.''
OF Raimel Tapia: "Watching him play in Colorado and Toronto, I never thought he could be a center fielder at all. His instincts were just poor out there. But offensively, he looked awesome. That's as free and easy and loose as I've ever seen him swing the bat. There was a lot of bat speed and he went up there with a plan every time. He looked really, really good.''
STARTING ROTATION
LHP Chris Sale: "Health is everything with him, and if he stops doing stupid (stuff)...His velocity was down just a tick, but I thought he was still good. It took him a while to get his feel for his slider, but once he did, he had the good tilt to it. I was impressed with where he was at.''
RHP Corey Kluber: "I don't know how he does it. But you walk out of the game and see that he hasn't given up a lot of hits. He gets weak contact and he just knows how to pitch. That's going to be important because he's a guy who needs his defense behind him and I have some questions about how good that's going to be. But I'll never count a guy like him out.''
LHP James Paxton: "Fingers crossed that the stuff is back to the point where he can compete. I would bet the under on the number of innings you're going to get from him. It's hard to have much confidence in his ability to toe the rubber for a longer stretch of the season.''
RHP Nick Pivetta: "Pivetta's always been frustrating to watch pitch, just from the standpoint that he's a high pitch-count guy and he's always going deep in counts. The stuff can be amazing. The curveball looks a lot better than it's been in the past. He threw it for more strikes and threw it in better counts. I felt there was a huge improvement from that standpoint. If he can go strike one, he can be a really good pitcher. I have some optimism about what he can be,.''
RHP Garrett Whitlock: "I always thought they were crazy moving him out of the pen. He had so much success there. He was hurt with the Yankees as a starter. You get him, you put him in the pen and he has a great year and now we're going to go back to starting again? What are we trying to do here? This is 'putting the square peg in a round hole' thing. It doesn't make any sense. I personally thought he was always a pen guy. I think he's more suited there because of his delivery. I just hope he can stay healthy -- that's the big thing.''
RHP Tanner Houck: "Not good. Man, he was awful this spring. I thought was just trying to throw the ball through the stinking wall with every pitch. He could care less about any feel, any command, any plan, any attack. It was like, 'I'm going to grab it, I'm going to throw it as hard as I can and see if they can hit it.' Problem was, he started walking everybody and when he did throw it down the middle of the plate, it was straight and they crushed it. There's just been zero adjustments made. He's not gotten any better. He was extremely disappointing.''
BULLPEN
RHP Kenley Jansen: "He looked good. He's always been a guy who I've never understood why hitters can't hit him and then you sit behind home plate, watch him throw and it's like, 'OK, I get it.' That cutter is ridiculous. He's so damn big and his deception is good. The second time I saw him, I thought he was ready for the season.''
RHP Chris Martin: "I saw a lot of him last year and then again this spring. I like him. I think he gets overlooked. He competes really well, throws strikes and has good stuff. I think he's going to be a very solid, late-inning option for them.''
RHP John Schreiber: "There are times when he's been good for me and there are other times when he's been 'eh.' As long as he's not going in the eighth or ninth, you're fine with him in the seventh or sixth.''
RHP Ryan Brasier: "He stinks. I rarely ever say that about a major league player because I have a ton of respect for these guys. But he stinks. Two years ago, I don't know if he did it with smoke and mirrors, but he had some success. But since then, it's been hard to watch and this spring, he was even worse than when I saw him last year. I'm not on him at all.''
LHP Richard Bleier: "He's always been a solid lefty. He can pitch. He mixes well. I thought that was a great trade, getting him for (Matt) Barnes.''