FORT MYERS, FL -- The Red Sox 2023 season gets underway Thursday, and expectations are -- shall we say, modest.
As always, the season will be full of surprises. Teams don't get to compile a Wish List for the year, but if they did, the Red Sox would probably have one like this:
1) Health for the starting rotation
Well, duh. No teams look forward to injuries decimating its roster, but the 2022 Red Sox were particularly hard-hit. In July, the Sox suddenly lost Nathan Eovaldi, Garrett Whitlock, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha and any chance the team had of working its way into legitimate wild card contention was flushed away.
The Sox will need to enjoy better health this season and that's especially true of their Big Three in the starting rotation -- Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and James Paxton.
That Sale, healthy at the start of the season for the first time since 2019, got through spring training without any physical derailments was a positive sign indeed, but it won't mean much if he breaks down in April or May. Kluber and Paxton have not been pillars of durability in recent seasons, either, and the Sox will likely need to get 20 or more starts from each of them to remain in contention.
Kluber is the only one to have made 20 or more starts in any of the last three seasons and ominously, Paxton will start the season on the IL, though it was the result of a relatively minor setback (hamstring strain).
It's especially important given how inexperienced much of the rest of the rotation is. Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello, who figure to occupy 40 percent of the rotation when they return from IL stints in mid-April, have combined for 20 career starts in the big leagues.
2) The Player Development System produces some help for the rotation.
It's well chronicled that it's been more than a dozen years since the Red Sox last featured a homegrown starter who earned double figures in wins in a season. Internally, the Red Sox believe that's about to change.
Bello is the reason behind much of that optimism. With a mid-90s fastball, a wipeout slider and a formidable changeup, Bello seemingly has the stuff to win now. But he needs to show he can withstand the physical demands of a long season and prove he can make adjustments as the league hitters adjust to him.
The pitching prospect who most impressed the organization this spring was Bryan Mata. Some talent evaluators outside the organization question whether Mata can command well enough to project as a starter and worry that he might be better suited for a relief role, where his issues with control could presumably be better tolerated.
The Red Sox believe the ceiling for Mata is quite high -- if he improve his location and repeat his delivery.
Chances are, the Sox will need reinforcements along the way -- every team does. Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski are possibilities on the major league staff, but what happens if the Sox have to dip further into their inventory of young starters? Aside from Mata, can Brandon Walter or Chris Murphy be counted on to contribute, if only briefly?
3) Triston Casas must be the real deal.
Casas has already demonstrated that he has thorough knowledge of the strike zone, a skill that few young hitters master even before reaching the big leagues. Last September, Casas showed remarkable discipline at the plate, unafraid to take walks and able to consistently make contact.
Those are all positives.
But Casas needs to produce, too. The lineup doesn't feature a lot of power -- Rafael Devers is the only hitter on the Opening Day roster with more than 14 homers in the big leagues last season -- and the Sox desperately need Casas to be a power source. His approach allows him to use the whole field, and with his strength, he should hit his share of homers over The Wall in left.
He had better, because the Red Sox don't have a lot of alternatives at first. Eric Hosmer, whom the Sox viewed as redundant, is gone and Bobby Dalbec is the only option in the upper reaches of the farm system who has real experience at first. (Sure, they could put Justin Turner there, but that would only open a similar vacancy at DH).
One positive: any and all questions about the ability of Casas to fit into the clubhouse seem to have been answered this spring after he agreed to modify some of his quirkier pre-game habits.
4) Masataka Yoshida successfully makes the transition to MLB.
If his play in the World Baseball Classic and spring training mean anything, Yoshida is poised to deliver.
With a solid offensive approach, Yoshida has proven that his on-base skills can transfer and his play under enormous pressure in the WBC should take care of any questions anyone has about his ability to thrive under the spotlight.
Yoshida was the lone big investment of the winter for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, and many throughout the industry mocked the Sox' willingness to give Yoshida a five-year deal for $90 million. So far, Yoshida seems to have silenced the cynics, but he'll need to prove himself across the season.
Much will be unfamiliar -- from the schedule, to the amount of travel, to the size of the baseabll, to the playing surfaces -- for Yoshida. Even the notion of playing the vast majority of games outdoors will be a new experience.
Fortunately for the Red Sox, they have a history of supporting Japanese players, which should help Yoshida's comfort level.
Ultimately, he'll be judged between the lines. He's not a fast baserunner and his defense, while perhaps not as questionable as first feared, is merely adequate. His real payoff will come in the batter's box.
5) Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin lock down the back end of the bullpen.
Ever since Craig Kimbrel left following the 2018 season, the Red Sox have tried -- without any sustained success -- a mix-and-match approach to the late innings.
Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes had periods of dominance, but couldn't lock games down for an extended period.
As a result, the Red Sox made a somewhat surprising splurge on the free agent market, signing Jansen to a two-year, $32 million deal and adding Martin as a trustworthy eighth-inning weapon.
In the spring, the newcomers have met with mixed results. Jansen missed time last weekend after feeling lightheaded on the mound. That episode invited uncomfortable reminders that Jansen has dealt with atrial fibrillation before. Martin, who has been a consistent set-up man, was hit hard most of the spring. Perhaps their long track records should buy them some trust, but the volubility of reliever performance is bound to invite some nervousness.
It hasn't helped that John Schreiber has also struggled at times, a season after he was clearly the most dominant and trustworthy reliever in the bullpen. If Schreiber regresses, the Sox lack another obvious late-inning option in the pen.
6) This is Rafael Devers' team now and he needs to accept that.
Devers signed the biggest contract in franchise history over the winter, which relieved Red Sox fans, who, after the departures of Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts may have been bracing themselves for Devers to leave, too.
Devers has said the new deal won't change him and that he'll continue to be the same person he's been. In one sense, that's admirable, as Devers approaches his craft the same way he always has.
But he's also maintained that he doesn't have to emerge as the face of the franchise, and that's not entirely accurate. Like or not, the money and status mean that this is now Devers' team.
No one expects him to undergo a massive personality change or evolve overnight as a rah-rah leader when that isn't his style. But with the big bucks comes additional responsibilities. Others might be more willing or more comfortable in holding teammates accountable, or serving as a liaison with management, or address the fan base via the media.
But Devers is, like or not, Devers and the Red Sox are now synonymous, the way it was with Bogaerts in recent seasons, and Devers needs to respond accordingly. He can't make over $30 million annually and remain hidden.
7) Veterans with something to prove must step up.
All over the diamond, the Red Sox have everyday players of whom much is expected, but not guaranteed.
In right field, Alex Verdugo appears intent on having a breakout season, which couldn't be better-timed. Verdugo was initially rattled by Cora's challenge to him at the end of last year, but appears to have taken the call-out to heart. This is a hugely important year for him personally, with free agency beckoning at the end of 2024. Is he satisfied being a perfectly average player, or does he want more from himself?
At shortstop, Kiké Hernandez has long maintained that he can be a very good starting shortstop in the majors. That may well be, but never having started more than 17 games at short in a big league season, there's some unknown. Will Herhandez wear down under the demands of the position? Can he again be the offensive force that he was in the second half of the 2021 season and into the playoffs? We shall see.
Finally, there's Christian Arroyo, who has yet to show that he can hold up over a long season. His 87 games played last year represented a career high. The Sox will, in time, have Adalberto Mondesi to help out at second, but he too, comes with a reputation of being injury-prone. Arroyo has long waited to show that he is worthy of having been a first-round pick. Now's his chance.
8) The catchers must rise to the occasion.
At the end of last season, Bloom said he'd be looking to upgrade the catching position, but the only move of consequence was signing Jorge Alfaro to a minor league deal. Alfaro represents solid depth at Triple A in the event of injury to either of the catchers on the major league roster, but the Sox are making a calculated gamble here.
Reese McGuire is with his fourth organization and has yet to play as many as 90 games in a single season. The Red Sox were pleasantly surprised with his offensive output in the final two months last year, though few believe his .877 OPS is close to sustainable. If McGuire can give the Red Sox solid receiving and game-calling, keep the running game in check and supply the occasional offensive boost. But even that would seem to be asking a lot.
As for Connor Wong, the Sox are satisfied that he's made the necessary progress defensively. Still, the offensive expectations are modest, at best.
Throughout baseball, only a handful of catchers are difference-makers with the bat -- J.T. Realmuto, Adley Rutschman and a few others come to mind. But then, for a team with offensive question marks elsewhere, the Red Sox could use all the offense they can get from every position.
9) Improved play within the division.
Would it surprise you to learn that the Red Sox had a winning record outside the division last season?
Problem was, they were a woeful 26-50 against the other four teams in the AL East: the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays and Orioles. The Orioles were the only division rival against whom the Sox won more than they lost -- and just barely at 10-9.
Alex Cora has said several times this spring that if the Red Sox had competed better against Toronto (3-16), they would have had a winning record and perhaps been in the wild-card hunt until the end.
This year, teams will play fewer games within the division -- 52 games instead of 76. That's a break for the Sox. Instead of playing almost half their games against the East, the Sox will play a little less than a third.
As a bonus, the Red Sox --and every other team in the game -- will play more interleague games than ever before, and traditionally, the Sox have fared extremely well against National League opponents.
Still, the Sox can ill-afford to play .342 ball against the division. Just reaching .500 vs. the East would go a long way in making the Sox competitive in the division.