Yeah, we know: Spring training is supposed to be a time of optimism.
Players are (generally speaking) healthy. Rookies offer nothing but promise. Weaknesses have yet to be exposed. And naturally, everyone is -- say it with me, now! -- in the best shape of their lives.
This spring, indeed, has offered reasons for Red Sox fans to be cheerful. The mere sight of Chris Sale, healthy for the first time since 2019, hitting 95-96 mph with his fastball, is an encouraging one. Similarly, Garrett Whitlock and Kiké Hernandez are fully recovered after slogging through 2022 with injuries.
Triston Casas has been terrific, and in both Grapefruit League play and from afar in the World Baseball Classic, Masataka Yoshida has looked very much like The Real Deal.
All those things are positive.
But we interrupt this feel-good parade to remind you that there are still some issues lurking and that there are obvious holes to the roster.
Here, then, are five items of concern with the regular season opener less than two weeks ago:
1. Tanner Houck hasn't been sharp.
It's worth pointing out, right off the bat, that Houck underwent back surgery last September and spent a good chunk of the offseason rehabbing, so a certain amount of patience has to be applied. Even the healthiest players sometimes use spring training to experiment with new pitches, new grips, new approaches, and that may a factor here.
But Houck has repeatedly said that, post-surgery, this is the best he's felt in a long time. And yet the results have been alarming.
After being rocked for four runs on five hits in 4.2 innings Friday by the Atlanta Braves, Houck's ERA sits at 5.68. Most concerning is the fact that he's walked 10 hitters in 12.2 innings. A high walk rate isn't exactly a new development for Houck, who sports a career rate of 8.7 percent, above the MLB average of 8.5 percent in that span.
Circumstances have combined to limit Houck's starting opportunities. For a while, he didn't have a trustworthy third pitch, making it difficult to go through another team's lineup two or three times. And there have been times when Houck was more needed in the bullpen in the rotation. (This year, the reverse is true, with Houck thrust in the rotation to begin the year, thanks to short-term injuries for James Paxton, Brayan Bello and Whitlock.
But whether it's as a bulk reliever or a starter, Houck has to throw more strikes. It doesn't really matter whether the problem stems from mechanics or extra movement on his breaking pitches -- if Houck is going to succeed in either role, he needs to be in the strike zone more consistently.
2. Fears of regression are real for the bullpen.
By importing veteran back-end options Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, the Red Sox addressed the need for experienced late-inning options and bought themselves some stability for the eighth and ninth. Those are welcome additions, and take away some of the mix-and-match approach the Red Sox have been forced to take since Craig Kimbrel left after 2018.
But in today's game, there are more demands than ever. And that's where it's worth wondering whether the Red Sox are, outside of Martin and Jansen, deep enough.
Houck's struggles have already been examined above. John Schreiber was a revelation (2.22 ERA, 0.985 WHIP) last year, but the game is full of late-bloomers and journeymen who have one or two great seasons, but find that they can't sustain that over time. It's why bullpen performance is so voluble, and why front office executives live in fear of signing one-year wonders to multi-year contracts.
Scouts have noted that Schreiber has looked out of sync this spring, with his stuff not as sharp. He seemed to run out of gas late last season, and his shaky spring looks like an extension of that. Ryan Brasier, whose continued presence on the roster seems to enrage a segment of the fan base, allowed four hits in an inning Friday. At some point, Brasier's ability to flash the occasional 97 mph is less important than his results. In limited use, lefty Joely Rodriguez has been knocked around.
Sure, the Sox have options -- literally and figuratively. They can yo-yo guys back and forth from Worcester until they find the hot hand. But that's a lot of trial and error and perhaps not the best path forward.
3. Power outage?
The Red Sox were just 20th in homers in Major League Baseball last season, and that was before they lost Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, though, come to think of it, in combining for just 31 homers last season meant that supplied only about 60 percent of their expected homer total.
Still, here is a list of Red Sox players on this year's Opening Day roster who hit more than 13 homers in MLB last year: Rafael Devers (27).
That's it.
One.
Again, there's some fine print there. By midseason, they'll have Trevor Story, who hit 16 in just 90 games last year. Moreover, Adam Duvall is capable of 25 or more, but missed significant time last year with a broken wrist. Triston Casas possesses plus-power potential, and by dint of his elite bat-to-ball skills, Masataka Yoshida seems like someone who can be penciled in for 20 or so.
It would seem, then, Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Duvall and Justin Turner are all capable of hitting a minimum of 20, with Devers and perhaps Casas capable of 30 or more. And there's the expected mid-season return for Story.
The overall upgrades -- and specifically, the on-base ability of mainstays like Yoshida and Turner -- will theoretically result in better at-bats and a better top-to-bottom approach. And homers or no homers, more traffic can be expected, resulting in more runs. That, ultimately, is the goal here. It's not how you score them but rather, how many.
Still, the inability to be able to rely on the quick-strike element of the homer in 2023 is limiting and means the Red Sox will have to work harder to score their runs. The elimination of the infield shift means that rallies could be back in vogue, as it will be easier to string together two or three hits than it has been in recent seasons, but even so, that's a hard way to win.
4. Defense looks ordinary.
It's clear that the Red Sox are going to rely heavily on improved pitching to get back to being a competitive team, and a return to good health by Sale and Whitlock, the addition of Corey Kluber and the emergence of Brayan Bello could go a long way in achieving that goal.
But ordinarily, good run prevention means a strong defense to go along with quality pitching and it's here where the Red Sox are in danger of coming up short.
That's not to suggest that the Sox are going to be shoddy defensively. Other than real concerns about Yoshida as an outfielder, it's hard to say the Red Sox are going to be substandard at any one position on the diamond, and even there, Yoshida's shortcomings could be reduced by the small amount of ground he has to cover -- at least at home.
But other than Casas at first and potentially Duvall in center, it's equally hard to find many positions where the Sox are going to be clearly above-average, where outstanding defense is going to translate into runs being saved. (Story would qualify here, at either second or short, but it's hard to know how much he's going to contribute in the field this season. And if he does at all, it likely won't be until August).
There's a difference between a team that can make all the expected plays and convert them into outs -- which the Sox should do as a matter of routine. But it's quite another to have a team that takes hits away, prevents runs and shuts off rallies.
Do the Red Sox have enough of those players? From here, it's hard to say yes. And that will put an even bigger onus on the pitching staff, given that the offense in general looks to be only average in terms of expected production.
5. New rules will help promote basestealing, but the Red Sox won't benefit much.
By introducing slightly larger bases and limiting the number of pickoff throws that can be attempted, MLB is encouraging more steals. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they aren't positioned to take advantage.
Among the projected regulars, it doesn't appear as though the Sox have anyone capable of reaching double figures in steals. Alex Cora has said he would like Hernandez and Alex Verdugo to be a little more aggressive on the bases, but between the two, they have a grand total of 28 stolen bases in their careers. They might take an extra base here or there, but it's hard to see them developing into full-blown baserunning threats.
The one player who would otherwise stand to capitalize is Trevor Story, who was a perfect 13-for-13 in attempts last season. Story has above-average speed, and excellent instincts on the bases, but here again, he is expected to miss the first half of the season -- minimally -- so if he has any impact at all, it won't be until the final couple of months of the season.
The fastest baserunner on the roster is utility infielder Adalberto Mondesi. He's not expected to miss more than the first few weeks of the season as he recovers from knee surgery, but when he does get cleared, he won't be playing every day. Moreover, while Mondesi has truly elite speed (133-for-159 in his career), his problem has been getting on base enough to fully take advantage of it.
It won't take much for the Sox to eclipse their modest total from a year ago -- 52 steals -- but it's hard to envision the stolen base becoming a significant part of the team's MO.