Fewer than three weeks remain before Opening Day.
As we've already seen, a lot can happen in a few weeks time. The Red Sox are a prime example of that.
Before the calendar even flipped from February, the Red Sox had three starting pitchers suffer physical setbacks that will almost certainly keep them off the Opening Day roster. Those injuries, however temporary, will impact what the rotation will look like for the start of the season.
With that said, he's a look at what the Sox will (probably) look like on March 30. It goes without saying that they will look significantly different a week or two after that.
STARTING PITCHERS (5): Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford.
Sale and Kluber were locks when camp began and that status hasn't changed. Pivetta was a bubble candidate, with the potential for being sent to the bullpen before the injuries to James Paxton, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello intervened. It appears as though the issues with that trio have bought him a little time, but he'll have to be sharper in the early going in order to retain his spot as the three heal and are ready to reclaim their roles.
Houck, too, was a tweener, told to come to camp prepared to compete for a rotation spot, with the understanding that he could also start the year in the bullpen. The Sox have wisely slow-played Whitlock's return from September hip surgery, opening a spot for Houck, however temporarily. Whitlock threw live BP Saturday in Fort Myers and is lined up to make his Grapefruit League debut Wednesday. His stay on the IL -- with help from being backdated -- will probably be very brief.
The early season schedule is a forgiving one in terms of days off. The Sox will have an off-day following their opener, and another a week later. That could, in theory, allow them to avoid using a fourth or fifth starter at times. But chances are, given the age and injury history of both Sale and Kluber, they might want to take the opportunity to give both an extra day of rest early in the season.
Crawford is listed here as the best alternative, though it's possible he could be on the roster as a bulk reliever, and thanks to the calendar, might not get a start if Whitlock can proceed as hoped.
BULLPEN (8): Kenley Jansen, John Schreiber, Chris Martin, Ryan Brasier, Joely Rodriguez, Richard Bleier, Wyatt Mills, Zack Kelly.
This group is easily the most volatile when it comes to projections -- both because a domino-like effect injuries to the rotation have had, and the nature of the spot. Other than a core group, there will be a lot of mixing and matching throughout the season and for those with options remaining, a shuttle to Worcester will take place.
Originally, Houck figured to be part of this, and maybe Crawford, too. But circumstances are likely to elevate them to the rotation for the opening of the season. That, in turn, creates some opportunities in the bullpen.
Jansen is set as the closer, and Schreiber and Martin will be the primary high-leverage options. Rodriguez and Bleier give the Red Sox two experienced lefties. That leaves Brasier as a seventh-inning option and room for two others: Mills, whose unique sidearm delivery intrigues the Sox, and Kelly, a late-bloomer who impressed over the final two months of last season.
There are any number of options from Worcester who could see duty here, including Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy and Bryan Mata. But for now, all three will be stretched out as starters in the minors to begin the year.
As always, the bullpen composition is subject to (near-constant) change.
CATCHERS (2): Reese McGuire, Jorge Alfaro.
McGuire will be the primary catcher to start the season, so his spot is assured. After that, it gets complicated.
The Red Sox had planned to use the first few months of the season to determine whether Connor Wong was ready to be a suitable backup catcher at the big league level. Although Wong turns 27 in May, he's started just 20 games behind the plate in the major leagues and there's some unknown about him. At the same time, the Sox would keep Alfaro stashed at AAA Worcester for the start of the season, providing valuable depth at a key position.
But Wong's hamstring strain changed all of that.
He's begun swinging the bat already, but not done any catching. That timeline would suggest he'll need additional time beyond Opening Day to be fully ready, but roster control comes into play here. If the Sox add Alfaro to the 40-man roster -- he signed a minor league deal with an invite to spring training in January -- they have to be careful. Alfaro is out of options and the Sox can't simply send him to the minors without risk -- he'd have to be DFA'd and clear waivers.
Then again, Alfaro has an 'upward mobility'' clause that allows him to go elsewhere if another organization commits to adding him to their roster. That, along with the uncertainty surrounding Wong's availability, likely means Alfaro starts the season in Boston.
INFIELD (6): Rafael Devers, Kiké Hernandez, Christian Arroyo, Triston Casas, Yu Chang, Justin Turner
The starters are set, with Devers, Hernandez, Arroyo and Casas representing the infield regulars from left to right, or, third to first.
Chang, who has yet to step foot in Fort Myers, is taking part in the WBC for Chinese Taipei and will join the Sox when his team is eliminated. The Red Sox like his defensive versatility and his play at short as the primary backup, and think there's an offensive upside that he's yet to realize. (As if to demonstrate this, he's had a huge WBC to date with a game-tying two-run homer Friday and a grand slam Saturday).
Chang's stay with the major league team could be brief, however, since the Sox envision Adalberto Mondesi as the primary mid-infield backup. Mondesi, however, has been brought along slowly as he recovers from knee surgery and likely won't be ready until mid-April or so.
That leaves Turner, who was projected to be the team's primary DH along with the primary backup option at first base. Turner took a pitch to the face against Detroit earlier this week, a scary moment. He seems to have rebounded better (and faster) than expected to the point where he could get his stitches out this weekend and be cleared to resume batting practice soon after.
Assuming no further setbacks, that would seem to give him time to get enough at-bats to be ready for the opener. If he encounters any roadblocks, it's likely Bobby Dalbec would be the temporary replacement, since he offers righthanded pop and the ability to play all over the infield.
OUTFIELD (5): Masataka Yoshida, Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Rob Refsnyder and Raimel Tapia.
Nothing complicated about the starters -- it's Yoshida, Duvall and Verdugo, going left to right.
Refsnyder has already earned a spot, as an above-average defender at all three outfield spots and someone who crushes left-handed pitching. That leaves room for a lefty-hitting outfielder, and Tapia has had a monster camp with six extra-base hits and a 1.263 OPS entering play Saturday. As it stands now, he'll edge out other longshot candidates like switch-hitter Greg Allen.
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To date, much of the attention surrounding the new pace-of-play initiatives -- and the pitch clock, specifically -- have centered on how quickly the game has sped up. Research indicates that, as MLB has hoped, average game times have been in the neighborhood of 25-30 minutes faster. It remains to be seen if that continues to hold true once the season begins.
But there are some other implications to consider about the on-field product, too.
With so much emphasis on the actual pace and the potential for violations, we don't yet know how the pitch clock will impact the quality of pitches. For instance, with pitchers given far less time to recover in between pitches, will they still be able to summon the same velocity as they have in the past?
"We've thought about that,'' said pitching coach Dave Bush recently. "We're incorporating a little bit more cardio into the conditioning work, knowing that for starters who have never pitched (with the clock) are going to be asked to pitch in a shorter period of time. Being in shape is going to matter maybe a little bit more than it has in the past, being able to recover quickly and knowing how to do that -- everything from the workouts leading up to it to just understanding how to calm yourself down when you're on the mound -- and being prepared for it.
"When we get down to it, I don't think it's going to be a big deal because we're going to practice, we're going to prepare for it. There are going to be ways to use it to our advantage and so I think when guys look it that way -- instead of something they don't have to deal with, but something they get to deal with -- there are certainly ways in which they can help themselves out that makes it less of an issue.''
Bush added that whatever impediments pitchers face, hitters will also be challenged. If pitchers can't quite recover well enough to maintain velocity throughout an outing, hitters face a similar issue, without the familiar recovery time between swings.
"You ask a hitter to take a ton of swings in a shorter period of time, he's going to be fatigued, also,'' he said. "So that will be a factor to both sides.''
Bush and bullpen coach Pete Walker have solicited input from the organization's Double-A and Triple-A coaching staffs -- all of whom dealt with the clock last season -- to see what lessons could be learned.
"Nothing that they thought was going to be obvious,'' Bush reported. "If any differences exist, they thought they would be small. We don't know quite yet. Most of the impact (they observed) involved game strategy and stuff like that they could take advantage of people not being prepared for the clock or not being ready for it. I think, with the physical part, we're trying to prepare the players, knowing that they're going to have to do more in a shorter period of time and then exactly what that looks like, we'll be ready for it.''
Bush doubted that the pitch clock would impact sequencing or pitch-calling. In other words, it's unlikely that teams will refrain from calling for consecutive fastballs out of fear that a pitcher can't summon the necessary power on back-to-back heaters.
But the pure physicality of pitching, including the ability to repeat a delivery, could be something that bears watching.
"The efficiency of a delivery matters,'' confirmed Bush. "It always matters because the more efficient a guy is, the less taxing it is on the body and it's definitely going to matter with a shorter period of time (between pitches). It's much like running -- if you're a really efficient runner, you can recover fast. If you're a sloppy runner, with arms and legs going everywhere, you work a lot harder. So yes, it does matter and it just brings all those things into play maybe a little bit more than in the past.''