It's hard to know what to make of Nick Pivetta this spring.
When camp began, Pivetta was seemingly in danger of being the odd-man out in the competition for spots in a suddenly crowded Red Sox rotation. He had to contend with established veteran pitchers like Chris Sale, James Paxton and Corey Kluber, each of whom have better resumes but also, checkered injury histories. There was Garrett Whitlock, seemingly primed for a breakout year as a starter, having been shuttled between the rotation and the bullpen, all the while pitching through a hip condition that eventually required surgery in September.
Finally, there's Brayan Bello, who profiles as the organization's best homegrown starting pitching prospect in a decade.
The list of candidates, coupled with Pivetta's highly uneven season last year -- a 4.56 ERA, and a 1.391 WHIP -- it wasn't hard to imagine Pivetta becoming the odd-man out in the battle for the rotation, consigned to the bullpen for multi-inning work.
Injuries, as if often the case, then reshaped the competition. Paxton suffered a slight hamstring strain. Bello was set back in the first week of camp with some forearm stiffness. And Whitlock is being brought along slowly, yet to pitch in a Grapefruit League with Opening Day now just three weeks away.
On paper, those setbacks -- none of them major, but likely enough to delay the starts of their season -- should help Pivetta to lock down a regular turn in the rotation, at least for early April.
But his Grapefruit League performance isn't helping his case.
In his first outing of the spring, he was hit around by the Astros, allowing three runs on five hits while failing to close out the second inning. Then, on Thursday, he struggled mightily again. Facing a lineup of New York Yankee regulars, Pivetta yielded three hits and three walks for two runs over two innings. (Pivetta was actually removed in the second, then, as spring training rules allow, returned, briefly, for the third).
The Red Sox managed to overcome Pivetta's shakiness and posted an 11-7 win, improving their Grapefruit League mark to 9-0-3.
Thursday's outing, in particular, highlighted two of his issues from last season: command and an inability to succeed against top lineups. Last year, Pivetta's walk 9.4 percent, about 10 percent higher than the MLB average.
Meanwhile, while he had a 3.10 ERA against teams with losing records, that number shot up to to 5.10 against teams with records above .500.
Some of his problems Thursday may have been the result of experimenting with a harder curveball that he worked on over the winter. Rather than the loopy, 12-6 break of a year ago, his curve this spring has featured more bite.
"Something more in the zone longer, at a better speed,'' Pivetta told reporters. "My other one was more out of the zone, in the zone, out of the zone....This
But if Pivetta can't command it, the tightness of the pitch won't much matter.
There's an inherent conundrum about Pivetta. At 30, he should just now be in the prime of his career. At 6-foot-5 and 215 pounds, he's got the perfect power pitcher's build. And he's been quite durable -- few pitchers can top his 63 starts over the last two seasons.
However, there's no small amount of inconsistency to his performance. Last season, even as he easily led the staff in starts and innings pitched, the Red Sox were unsure of what they were going to get from one start to the next. Pivetta allowed one or no runs 11 times last season, while also allowing four or more runs 11 times, including a three-start stretch coming out of the All-Star break in which he was pounded for 20 earned runs.
When Pivetta gets on a roll and gathers confidence, he can be an effective innings-eater. But too often, he has hard time pitching himself out of a downturn and has extended stretches where he spirals in the wrong direction.
And there's the pesky matter of his track record against quality lineups, which was evident again Thursday.
It's true that the Sox will, thanks to the new more balanced schedule, face AL East teams less often in 2023. But his 6.52 ERA against the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays and Rays is impossible to dismiss as a random result and his showing in Tampa is bound to only perpetuate those concerns.