There's just about a month left in the regular season. It’s time to start looking at playoff seeding, not just in the race for the top seed, but for how the whole playoff run could shake out.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Celtics are right behind Milwaukee, with a 21% chance at winning the title compared to the Bucks' 23% chance. According to FiveThirtyEight, Milwaukee’s chances at winning are 20%, and Boston’s are 18%. The Nuggets lead that projection at 21%.
These projection sites use the team’s current status as a guide and run simulations and predictions that reflect the current state of the NBA. So if Boston beats Milwaukee at the end of the month and it gives them first place, then the percentages will probably flip. When they're that close, the teams are basically neck-and-neck.
Boston has a slight edge in remaining strength of schedule. According to tankathon, Milwaukee has 20 games left against a slate with a .509 winning percentage. Boston has 19 left against a group winning at a .498 clip.
The most important part of all of this is that there is almost no chance of Boston or Milwaukee finishing third. They're five games out of first and 4.5 behind Boston but, remember, tack on one game to whatever games behind Philly is from Boston because of the tiebreaker. The Sixers are a virtual lock for the third seed at this point.
So the seventh and eighth seeds are of the most immediate interest to the Celtics. One of those teams will be the first-round matchup for Boston, and right now Miami and Atlanta are the odds-on favorites to finish seventh and eighth.
Obviously, this part of the projections is the toughest to nail because of the play-in tournament, and partly because Brooklyn is cratering. They’ve lost eight of their last 10 games and they're sinking like a stone. The projections sites aren’t factoring all this in just yet, so the Nets' percentages are probably higher than they should be.
As of right now, the Heat and Hawks are currently joined by Toronto and Washington in the play-in, but Chicago is 1.5 games behind the Wizards and the Pacers are holding onto hope three games back.
If things stay the same, I’d give Miami the win over Washington to snag the seventh seed, but Atlanta/Toronto is a toss up for eighth. Toronto has the toughest remaining strength of schedule in the league, so this part of the standings really has a chance of moving around a lot. I feel good about Miami settling at 7, which would make the first round a rematch of the Eastern Conference Finals if Boston finishes second.
Call me crazy but that's the last thing I want. Miami has its flaws, but I don’t want Playoff Jimmy Butler right away and I don't want the Celtics to have to contend with Bam Adebayo as a defender. The Celtics should win, but if we’re looking at easy paths and chances for guys to rest between series, I would rather see any of these other teams first. However, I’m starting to think the Heat are going to jump past Brooklyn at some point soon.
Assuming the Celtics get out of the first round, the 4/5 matchup appears to be heading toward the Cavs and Knicks. With Brooklyn trending downward and the Knicks playing well, it feels like the Knicks will pretty comfortably hold onto at least that fifth spot. The Cavs and Sixers can jostle for third and fourth, but at this point four is the odds-on bet for Cleveland. I feel pretty good about this being the first-round series.
That makes this stretch for the Celtics pretty important. They just struggled against New York, but they get a rematch at home on Sunday. Adding Jaylen Brown to the mix adds an element they didn’t have before. Sending a message to the Knicks with a decisive win can be important. Flexing their full power and sending the Knicks home with a taste of what they’d face in the playoffs has some value. They can do the same with Cleveland … this time closing the game out instead of giving them hope. These next few games actually have some added importance beyond piling up some wins and getting the fully healthy squad some reps.
Of course, the 4/5 matters if the Celtics get the top seed. If they stay in second, then the 3/6 is the matchup to watch. I mentioned Miami as the seventh seed earlier, but they seem much more likely as the sixth seed to go against Philadelphia in the first round. I’d expect the Sixers to win that, but oh boy it would be a fun series to watch with Butler seeking some irrational revenge on his former team. Joel Embiid would probably spend the series openly wishing he still had Butler as a teammate and the whole thing could go south for Philly in a blink.
I’m betting Philly/Miami is the 3/6, and I don’t care what anyone says about the Boston mind control over the Sixers, I still want no piece of any of this. Give me some patsy in the first round and Cleveland/New York in the second. I just don’t believe either of those teams is well-rounded enough, deep enough, or mature enough to take Boston out.
I’m still putting my priority on getting the top seed. Milwaukee is on a 16-game heater that has to cool off at some point. As long as the Celtics stay close (They’re a half-game behind, tied in the win column) and then win that last head-to-head, they’ll be fine.
But all of this highlights just how important this last stretch is. It won’t be perfect, but the Celtics can’t live wins on the table at this point. All of them matter.