Too much draft talk before free agency concludes is pretty much pointless because so much will change before the selection process beings on April 27th. If the Patriots sign a big-money offensive tackle in free agency, they won't likely be taking one in the first round. But content has to be produced, so the hamster wheel will spin.
The constructive exercise this time of year is to get a better read on what teams will be looking for before the Patriots are slated to pick 14th — before that changes in free agency and with trades — and see how things change during the course of the offseason.
1. Bears: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
I expect this pick to be traded, with the Colts and Panthers being the strongest contenders, but if the Bears stick, the three-down DT gets the nod over Alabama OLB Willie Anderson. The game is more about pressuring quickly from the inside than ever.
2. Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Nick Caserio runs up to the podium to select his franchise QB. Yes, he's undersized and you worry about durability, but he's ready for the spotlight.
3. Cardinals: Will Anderson, Edge, Alabama
Arizona needs a lot of help, especially with the pass rush and Anderson is the best prospect in this class. Another spot where a QB-needy team could jump up.
4. Colts: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
There's some chatter about Will Levis going here to Chris Ballard but I can't see him taking on more risk with a guy who needs work after failing so many times at QB. Stroud is the quickest projection to starting and checks all the boxes.
5. Seahawks: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
To get back to truly being dominating on defense, Pete Carroll needs a freak on the defensive line. Wilson is that.
6. Lions: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Detroit stinks in the secondary and Witherspoon is clearly the best in this class.
7. Raiders: Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Of course, this pick is going to depend on whether or not the Raiders land a QB via trade prior to the draft — if they don't, Will Levis is an ideal guy for Josh McDaniels to mold. But if they do get a QB, then Skoronski can upgrade them either at right tackle or guard, and the Raiders will be very formidable on offense. Yes, defense needs a lot of work, but that should come in free agency.
8. Falcons: Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Assuming Desmond Ridder is their guy at QB going forward, Atlanta's pass rush has to get better.
9. Panthers: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Carolina is likely going to jump up to make sure they get a QB, and they can take their time developing the inconsistent Levis.
10. Eagles: Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Philly is getting a little long in the tooth and expensive on the defensive line, and Van Ness gives them options. Howie Roseman loves to beef up the lines.
11. Titans: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
With Taylor Lewan possibly on the way out, the Titans need a revamp of their offensive and this helps a lot.
12. Texans: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Texans need a lot, and I thought long and hard about giving them a stud DB in Brian Branch, but the chance to pair together Young and a stud WR for the next five years was too appealing.
13. Jets: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
New York could got in a lot of different directions, but with their tackles either bad (George Fant), injured (Mekhi Becton) or aging (Duane Brown), they need another really good option up front. My dream of Jones to the Patriots dies here, which sets up a interesting situation for New England.
14. Patriots: ...
Well, a lot of good players on the board here at various spots that could help New England:
Joey Porter, CB, Penn State: If the Patriots don't take a swing at CB via trade, Porter checks a lot of boxes as a press man CB except he's got a good run defender and that's a must for the Patriots.
Christian Gonalez, CB, Oregon: Same size as Porter and just as smooth with more versatility and better tackling.
Brian Branch, DB, Alabama: More of a box/slot player than true safety, and the Patriots have plenty of those guys. Still, a nice tool in the secondary.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida: If the Patriots liked some of what they had in Cam Newton, Richardson would be perfect to sit and develop for two years to challenge Mac Jones down the line.
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame: Has a chance to be a dominating TE and if it doesn't look like Hunter Henry is going to re-up here, Patriots have nothing coming behind him. He fits what the Patriots look for.
Jordan Addison, WR, USC: Has a pretty high ceiling but not sure he's all that different than Tyquan Thornton.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State: If you let Jakobi Meyers go, Smith-Njigba automatically upgrades the Patriots in the slot and makes them more dynamic.
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College: Smaller than JSB but he might be more more explosive. Would add playmaking ability. A tough cover.
Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia: He's 6-3 but a little light at 235 pounds. Explosive and elite against the run. If the Patriots think Josh Uche is moving on after this season and the Patriots evolve a bit on their thinking about the edge, Smith could pay off.
Patriots pick: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Assuming the Patriots don't pay the freight on a tradeable CB like Jalen Ramsey and all the top offensive tackles are gone, getting a potential No. 1 CB seems like the safest bet for the Patriots. Porter, Jack Jones and Marcus Jones could be a dynamic secondary for years to come, and that will give the Patriots a chance to compete with the best offenses down the line.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. The Patriots announced that Matthew Slater will be back for a 16th season.
“I couldn’t be happier to learn that Matthew Slater has decided to return for his 16th season with the New England Patriots,” said Patriots Chairman and CEO Robert Kraft. “Matthew’s drive to be the best at what he does will one day earn him enshrinement into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Yet, as stellar as his football career has been, he is an even better person. He is led by his faith and spirituality, dedicated to his family and committed to his craft. There is no better leader for our younger players to follow and no better ambassador for the Patriots organization. He is truly special, and I am grateful that his contributions to the team will continue.”
“Matt’s incredible career is a testament to his preparation and will to succeed,” said head coach Bill Belichick. “We are thrilled he will be playing this season.”
“It is a great honor and blessing to return to the Patriots for my 16th season,” said Slater. “I thank God for His continued grace and provision over my career. I look forward to continuing to play under the leadership of Coach Belichick. Thank you to the Kraft family and the entire Patriots organization for allowing me to continue to pursue my childhood dream. See you in the fall. God Bless.”
Slater will definitely provide valuable leadership to a team that is trending younger in key spots, and he's still really good on special teams. Not the biggest guy on special teams since those snaps are dwindling, but I assume Slater's contract will once again be split for cap purposes and will be cheaper than normal.
2. The Patriots predictably brought back OT Conor McDermott to at least give them an experienced body at right tackle with Yodny Cajuste and Marcus Cannon likely gone. But make no mistake, McDermott isn't good. He allowed 17.5 QB pressures, 8.5 stuffed runs and was a net -34 for me — basically the same stats as Mike Onwenu in 700 fewer snaps (2/3rds of a season). He had the worst pre-play rating among linemen on the team last season — worse than Cajuste and Cannon.
3. Patriots this week released K Quinn Nordin, WR Kristian Wilkerson (quickly claimed by Colts), DT LaBryan Ray, CB Tae Hayes. Don't understand the Ray move. He was a really good pass rusher in camp. Makes me think they didn't love him in the building.
4. Former Cardinals WRs coach Shawn Jefferson, who "interviewed" for the Patriots OC job, was let out of his contract and quickly signed by the Panthers. Another opportunity for the Patriots to expand their thinking on the coaching staff beyond New England, and they didn't take it.
5. Looks like Green Bay is done with Aaron Rodgers. Both Bob McGinn and Tom Silverstein — my former colleagues at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel — said this week, basically, that the Packers were ready to move on to Jordan Love. Should make for an interesting offseason with Rodgers. Yes, I think the Raiders will be players and I think Josh McDaniels and the QB would get along well if Rodgers is ready to improve. Always a key question with him.