FORT MYERS, Fla. -- In the early 2000s, on-base percentage was all the rage in Major League Baseball.
Thanks in large part to the dealings of the Oakland A's -- and the resulting popularity of Moneyball, the best-seller which detailed how the small-market team took advantage of an undervalued ability -- on-base percentage was suddenly a key measuring stick for a player's offensive skill set.
A's GM Billy Beane discovered an inefficiency in the marketplace, and suddenly, OBP was the be-all, end-all. Players who didn't necessarily have high batting averages were suddenly in demand if they drew walks, since the object was to reach base by any means possible.
Other teams -- big-market and small -- followed in Oakland's footsteps. And so an offensive strategy was born: work at-bats, drive up pitch counts, chase starting pitchers early.
Eventually, as more teams jumped on the bandwagon, the appeal of OBP faded. When everyone's in on the secret, it's no longer an inefficiency to exploit. Plus, the obsession with launch angles and exit velocity and the preponderance of infield shifting led to more of a focus on power. If teams were going to make it so difficult to hit the ball through the infield, the answer was to hit it where no one could catch it -- except fans in the outfield bleachers.
In time, teams determined that the best offensive approach was to do damage on strikes -- regardless of the count. If a first- or second-pitch fastball was inviting enough to wallop off the wall for a double, why drag out an at-bat with the express goal of reaching first on a walk?
And there's this: Twenty years ago, the goal was to chase the starting pitcher as soon as possible, so the more pitches you saw, the faster that could get accomplished. Every team wanted to get into an opponent's bullpen as quickly as possible. Now, that's not always the case, especially with most teams featuring a handful of relievers capable of throwing 97 mph or more.
But this spring, a curious evolution is underway. The Red Sox, as an organization, are again prioritizing on-base ability. Two of their most significant free agent signings -- Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida and former Dodger infielder Justin Turner -- were acquired because of their proven ability to extend at-bats and reach base at an above-average clip.
Some of that focus is in response to the team's modest power potential. Of all the players on the club's projected Opening Day roster, Rafael Devers is the only hitter who had more than 16 homers last season.
But at another level, the shift in emphasis is about common sense. If the object is to score the most runs possible, it stands to reason that the most effective -- and efficient -- strategy is to produce as many baserunners as possible.
"On-base has always been important,'' said Red Sox GM Brian O'Halloran. "Maybe what we're seeing here is renewed messaging, at least in the case of what we're talking about here in our camp. It's just a reminder of how important it is. It's no secret -- getting guys on base and moving the line leads to runs. It's not an end-goal in and of itself to see (more) pitches necessarily, but it's (about) having good at-bats, swinging at strikes, getting on base. The more guys who are doing that, the more runs you're going to score.
"You've got find ways to score runs and if you're not hitting the ball out of the ballpark a lot, certainly scoring runs by just getting guys on base and knocking them in is the only other way to do it. But even if you are hitting home runs, or if home runs end up being the byproduct of good at-bats, on-base is still important. It all ties together.''
The Red Sox last year hit just 155 homers, ranking them 20th out of 30 teams. The potential for more exists this year, especially if Turner and newcomer Adam Duvall, both righthanded pull hitters, take advantage of Fenway's unique dimensions. Yoshida, while not a natural home run hitter, could chip in with 20 or so by utilizing his strong bat-to-ball skills and an all-fields approach.
"For a long time, slug was predominant,'' said Red Sox hitting coach Pete Fatse. "Slug was seen as something that was obviously trainable. With big leaguers, we get guys at a point in their careers where a lot of what they do is pretty refined and I think slug was one of the things that could make an impact -- you hit the ball in the air more, better-game planning, etc. So that took center stage.
"But the reality is, on-base has always been a priority. For me, I equate it to a pendulum. Maybe the pendulum, in some instances, did swing to slug, but there is a balance. So for me, it's identifying what the potential strengths of our lineup could be. Pitching is getting better and better, so finding ways to create traffic and disruption, wearing guys down is going to become important. So it's more (a matter of) revisiting things that we know are important, but now we're shedding a little more light on it.''
Messaging is important, too. After struggling much of last year when it came to getting runners on base, the Red Sox led all of baseball in that category in the month of September. It was as if weeks and months of preaching the importance of creating traffic on the bases were finally received, and this spring, the Red Sox want to pick up right where they left off last year.
Another factor: pitchers are, more than ever, relying on breaking pitches rather than fastballs, meaning more and more pitches are thrown out of the strike zone -- either on purpose to induce chase, or by failure to properly execute. It stands to reason that laying off pitches out of the zone can lead either to more walks, or alternately, better, harder contact when hitters swing only at strikes. In either outcome, the hitter wins.
"It's not about we have a target for pitches-per-plate-appearance (the way teams operated 20 years ago),'' said Fatse. "It's more about can we swing at more of those pitches over the middle of the plate, impact those, and not chase the rest. It's as simple as that. Ultimately, it's about what's going to help us score the most runs. I think that's where the root of this whole thing is.'
"Maybe,'' concluded O'Halloran, "it's coming back around to a more holistic view. It's all important -- doing damage is important, swinging at strikes is important and getting on base is important.''
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The passing of former player and broadcaster Tim McCarver this past week represented a great loss to the game.
McCarver, who had a brief stay with the Red Sox in 1974-75 (total games played: 23), was the rare four-decade player, breaking in 1959 and finishing up in 1980. He caught nearly 2,000 games and collected 1,501 hits. He caught all seven games against the Sox while with St. Louis in the 1967 World Series and was a two-time champion.
As often happens, McCarver's biggest contributions came off the field. He was an early proponent of the Players Association, was outspoken on civil rights and improved treatment for players of color.
For many fans, he was more known for his broadcast work. Fans of both the Mets and Yankees will tell you that McCarver's work as an analyst on their teams' local broadcasts in the 1980s and 1990 represented his career high-water mark. McCarver was honest and fair, but wasn't one to sugar-coat what he saw, earning the respect of viewers, while at the same time, offering insight that few former players could deliver.
After working for NBC and CBS, most fans came to know him for national work on Fox. In all, he worked 24 World Series, most of them with Fox, where he paired with Joe Buck to form one of the best baseball broadcasting duos of all time. In the wake of his passing, a clip surfaced from Game 7 of the 2001 World Series between the Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks, when McCarver presciently predicted that Luis Gonzalez might pose a tough matchup against Yankee great Mariano Rivera.
Setting up the at-bat, McCarver said: "The one problem is, Rivera throws inside to lefthanders and lefthanders get a lot of broken-bat hits into shallow outfield.''
Sure enough, on the very next pitch, Gonzalez connected on a cutter in on his hands, sending a flare over shortstop Derek Jeter, scoring the winning run and securing a championship for the Diamondbacks.
That's what great analysts do. It's one thing to provide context after the fact as a replay is shown, but McCarver was nearly unmatched in telling a viewer not what had just happened, but rather, what might happen next. Game 7 stood as the perfect example.
Perhaps fittingly, McCarver's last broadcast was Game 6 of the 2013 World Series at Fenway between the Sox and Cardinals, two of the four teams for which he had played.
In my limited interactions with him over the years -- McCarver called the first three Red Sox championships in the 21st century and with Fox unable to get enough of the Red Sox-Yankee rivalry, was often around the Sox -- he was unfailingly generous with his time and in his knowledge, a true gentleman to be sure.
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It's neither accurate nor fair to suggest that the current Red Sox ownership is now, or has ever been cheap.
Since John Henry, Tom Werner and Co. purchased the Sox prior to the 2002 season, the team has spent freely.
According to the Twitter account @redsoxpayroll, in the 21 seasons of this ownership during which there was a CBT (competitive balance tax), the Red Sox have gone over 11 times, and been at 95 percent of the first threshold or more seven times. Only once in those 21 seasons did the Sox spend below 90 percent of the CBT, and that was the pandemic season of 2020, when the Sox were at 89 percent.
The only team to go over the CBT more often has been the Yankees.
Still, there's the perception that Henry and Co. may be looking to limit spending going forward. The Sox are currently projected to be at $225 million on Opening Day, leaving them $8 million shy of the first CBT threshold of $233 million and providing some breathing room to take on salary during the season.
Recently, Henry complained about the industry's soaring salaries at the infamous Winter Weekend forum in Springfield last month, explaining the team's costly ticket prices thusly: "It's expensive to have baseball players.''
Contrast that remark with the recent quotes from Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton.
The Phils are coming off a National League pennant and World Series appearance, but spent liberally this winter, signing shortstop Trea Turner, starter Taijuan Walker and relievers Matt Strahm and Craig Kimbrel, totaling more than $400 million in salary. The Phils will have a payroll in excess of $260 million, and likely, more for 2024. And yet, Middleton wasn't fretting.
"Nobody cares about whether I make money or not," Middleton told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "If my legacy is that I didn't lose any money owning a baseball team on an annual operating basis, that's a pretty sad legacy. It's about putting trophies in the cases... My goal is that we create a team that, 100 years from now, when people ask the question, 'What are the greatest teams in the history of baseball?' the Phillies are in the conversation.
"How much money did the '27 Yankees make? Or the '29 A's? Or the '75-76 Big Red Machine? Does anybody know? Does anybody care? Nobody knows or cares whether any of them made any money or not. If your ambition is to be good, you don't make those decisions (to sign Turner). If your ambition is to be great, you make those decisions. It's about desire, really. I just want to win."
Even more interesting were his comments about committing to Turner for 11 years, at which point he'll be 40. By contrast, the Red Sox backed out of the bidding to retain shortstop Xander Bogaerts to a similar deal.
"But that's what the market requires," Middleton said. "People say, 'Why are you doing that? That's just stupid.' Well, I did it because that's what it took to sign the guy. If I had stopped it at seven or eight years, I wouldn't have signed them. So, that's your choice. And if you're overpaying 10 years from now for an athlete who got you a couple, three World Series titles, I mean, what do I care? Seriously. What do I care? And I can guarantee that none of our fans would care."
Again it's hard to take issue with the general stewardship of the franchise by Henry and Co. On their watch, the Sox have won four championships after going 86 years without a single one.
But perhaps it might be a good idea to stop complaining about salaries and generally making it sound like owning an MLB franchise is a giant financial burden, especially when Henry's franchise in question has quintupled in value since he bought it.