By this time next week, the Red Sox will be arriving in Fort Myers for the start of spring training. Some six weeks later, 26 players will leave Fort Myers and head for Boston and the start of the 2023 regular season.
There's a lot that can happen between now and the final week of March. There are the usual injuries to worry about, and the existence of the World Baseball Classic this spring only increases that risk even even further,
Nevertheless, here's the first crack at trying to predict the final 26:
STARTING PITCHERS (5): Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock
Sale, Kluber and Whitlock are three locks -- even though Sale and Whitlock are coming off surgeries. You name it, and it sidelined Sale last year, but he does, for now, appears to be healthy. Kluber will be managed carefully because of his age and the fact that he missed most of 2019 and 2020. Whitlock had hip surgery last September, but is a full-go for spring training. This is the year the Sox find out what his ceiling is as a starter.
That leaves two spots, assuming the Red Sox don't go with a six-man plan or piggyback a couple of veterans to ease them into the schedule.
Bello proved in September that he's ready to compete and little would be accomplished by returning him to Worcester. Let's see what he's got.
Finally, there's Paxton, who last pitched in a big league game some 22 months ago and has pitched all of 21.2 innings since 2019. He had fully recovered from Tommy John last September, then had his first rehab outing halted by a lat tear. He's healthy again and has already thrown off a mound, though, obviously, the Sox will be monitoring him closely. It would hardly be a surprise if they held him back and started him in some warm weather before moving him to the big league staff. Still, barring a setback, he might be ready to go.
RELIEVERS (8) Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, John Schreiber, Joely Rodriguez, Ryan Brasier, Richard Bleier, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck.
Lots of turnover here, as you might expect from a group that ranked 26th in ERA (4.59) last year while finishing among the "leaders'' in blown saves. Jansen provides a structure and some stability at the back end, with Martin and Schreiber as the principal high-leverage weapons. Rodirguez and Bleier are experienced lefties.
Brasier survived countless roster crunches over the winter, so he's assured of a spot -- for now. Crawford showed some promise and serves as an on-site depth starter, able to provide multiple innings. Houck can be used in a variety of ways, including some games in which he'll be the lone bridge between the starter and Jansen.
That leaves Pivetta who, ironically, led the team in innings and starts last year but will have a tough time cracking the rotation early -- unless injuries strike. For now, he can be a hard-throwing relief arm who could, like Kutter Crawford, remain stretched out in case there's a need for a healthy arm in the rotation.
CATCHERS (2) Reese McGuire, Connor Wong
This spot is relatively uncomplicated, but also, far from set in stone. McGuire is more or less the No. 1 guy going into camp and Wong is viewed as the backup.
It's possible that Jorge Alfaro, signed to a minor league deal, could beat out Wong. But more likely, the Sox will use the start of the season to see if Wong can handle a regular spot in the big leagues and keep Alfaro at Triple A for a bit. The latter has an opt-out on June 1, but that buys time to further evaluate Wong.
INFIELD/DH (7) Triston Casas, Christian Arroyo, Kiké Hernandez, Rafael Devers, Justin Turner, Bobby Dalbec, Adalberto Mondesi
The starting infield has an unfamiliar look to it. Compared to last Opening Day, only Devers is in the same position. In the meantime, the double-play combination has changed and the torch has been passed at first base. Turner, who is nominally the DH, will serve as the primary backup at both third and first base.
The final two spots are very much uncertain. There's no guarantee that Mondesi, acquired last month in a trader, will be ready after undergoing major knee surgery last spring. If he is, he's on the roster as the primary depth option at both second and short; if he's not, it could go to any number of non-roster options, including Nico Goodrum, or an untested prospect like Christian Koss.
The Sox have been shopping Dalbec all offseason, but haven't found a deal to their liking. For the time being, then, he's here as a backup at the two corner spots, an emergency option at short and second, and a power bat off the bench.
OUTFIELD (4) Masatake Yoshida, Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Rob Refsnyder
The starting outfield is set, from left field to right: Yoshida, Duvall and Verdugo, with the valuable Refsnyder on the bench, capable of filling in at all three outfield spots and able to crush lefthanded pitching, too.
Four outfielders doesn't suggest great depth at the big league level, but a number of infielders -- led by Hernandez and Mondesi -- can fill in there at a moment's notice, providing additional insurance.