The new MLB schedule format promises some good news for the 2023 Red Sox -- fewer games against American League East teams.
Under the adjusted format, teams will play rivals from within their own division 13 times beginning this season, a reduction from 19 games in previous years. For a team that struggled mightily against AL East opponents in 2022 -- the Sox were a horrific 26-50, for a .342 winning percentage -- that's welcome news. The Orioles were the only team against which the Sox enjoyed a winning record (10-9), while the Sox were a combined brutal 3-16 against Toronto.
Instead of playing almost one-half of their schedule within the division (76 games out of 162), the Red Sox -- and every other team in the game -- will now play just under one-third (52 of 162).
That alone is a positive. While all four of the other AL East teams posted winning records and three qualified for the postseason, the Red Sox will find themselves with more than double the number of interleague games (from 20 in 2022 to 46 in 2023 and beyond). So, instead of more games against the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles, the Red Sox will get games against the likes of the Marlins, Nationals, Pirates, Reds and Rockies.
In theory, at least, that should help them. In 2022, the Sox played 106 games against teams with a winning record; this year, that figure is down to 93.
But when it comes to reaching the postseason, the Red Sox will still have to contend with teams in the East. (The postseason format which includes three wild card entries from each league technically pits the Sox against every team in the American League, but again, when it comes to the standings, they're most concerned with teams in the East).
There are other teams in the American League about whom the Red Sox should worry: Minnesota and Chicago in the Central would appear to be wild-card contenders, and in the West, there's Seattle and perhaps both Texas and Los Angeles. Really, about the only teams you can confidently eliminate from contention for 2023 in the A.L. are Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland.
Have the Red Sox made up enough ground to overtake any teams in their own division? Certainly Toronto and the Yankees would seem out of reach. Tampa Bay may look less impressive on paper, but then, that's almost always the case, and yet, in the end, the Rays figure out a way to contend.
The Red Sox' best hope might be to overtake Baltimore, who finished just five games ahead of them a year ago. If the Red Sox are fortunate when it comes to health, you can construct a scenario where the Orioles come back to the pack a bit and the Red Sox overtake them. But again, that's an absolute best-case scenario.
Given that, here's a look at the competition in the Sox' division. Did their East rivals improve, go backward or stay the same?
NEW YORK YANKEES
LAST YEAR: 99-63, first place in AL East. Lost in the ALCS to Houston
KEY LOSSES: LHP Aroldis Chapman; OF Andrew Benintendi; INF Matt Carpenter; RHP Chad Green; LHP Lucas Luetge
KEY ADDITIONS: LHP Carlos Rodon; RHP Tommy Kahnle
OVERVIEW: The Yankees had some significant turnover in the bullpen, and also lost some veteran offensive performers in Carpenter and Benintendi. But they also added one of the top starters on the free agent market in Rodon, giving them another front-line starter to join RHP Gerrit Cole and LHP Nestor Cortes. There's some uncertainty at short, where the Yankees will let top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza battle it out for the starting job. They'd prefer to move on from aging 3B Josh Donaldson, but for now, are stuck with his contract. The competition will be strong for left field, too, with Aaron Hicks competing with Oswaldo Cabrera. In the infield, D.J. LeMahieu is, for now, the odd-man out, but provides valued depth.
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR: Stayed the same.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
LAST YEAR: 92-70, second place in AL East. Lost to Seattle in wild-card round
KEY LOSSES: OF Teoscar Hernandez; RHP Ross Stripling; OF Lourdes Gurirel Jr.; RHP David Phelps
KEY ADDITIONS: RHP Chad Green; 1B Brandson Belt; OF Kevin Kiermaier; RHP Chris Bassitt; RHP Eric Swanson; OF Daulton Varsho
OVERVIEW: The Jays made a concerted effort to become more lefthanded to balance their lineup, and obtained Varsho, Belt and Kiermaier to that end. They also vastly upgraded their outfield defense, with Kiermaier and Varsho joining George Springer. Chris Bassitt gives them another quality starting pitcher to go with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman. Swanson gives them an elite set-up man to get to closer Jordan Romano. The Jays have been building to this point and this season could see them break through with a deep October run.
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR: Improved.
TAMPA BAY RAYS
LAST YEAR: 86-76, third place in AL East. Lost in wild-card round to Cleveland
KEY LOSSES: RHP Corey Kluber; C Mike Zunino; OF Kevin Kiermaier; 1B Ji-Man Choi
KEY ADDITIONS: RHP Zack Eflin;
OVERVIEW: The Rays have had a near total overhaul of their bullpen, with more than a half-dozen relievers leaving the organization. Given how fungible the Rays have regarded relievers in the past, that makes sense. The Rays will benefit from having RHP Tyler Glasnow for a full year after he missed most of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and coupled with LHP Shane McClanahan, Eflin and LHP Jeffrey Springs, have the makings of a more traditional rotation at hand, rather than a staff overly reliant on openers. As ever, the Rays will pitch, but there are some questions about the lineup, especially the bottom half of the order. Tampa also extended a number of its own players, which should lead to some improved stability to the roster.
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR: Slight regression.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
LAST YEAR: 83-79, fourth place in the AL East.
KEY LOSSES: RHP Jordan Lyles; C Robinson Chirinos; INF Rougned Odor
KEY ADDITIONS: INF Adam Frazier; RHP Kyle Gibson; C James McCann; RHP Cole Irvin
OVERVIEW: The Orioles made a quantum leap forward in 2022, making a staggering 31-win improvement over the previous season and remaining in the wild card hunt into the middle of September. What's more, the team's minor league system has become one of the best in the game. Last year, catcher Adley Rutschman had a huge impact last year and more help is expected this season from the likes of INF Gunnar Henderson and RHP Grayson Rodriguez. But after making such huge strides last season, the fan base was told to expect some big signings in free agency this past winter and that never materialized. The future is still very bright, but with so little done to improve the roster in the short-term, the Orioles could be subject to a small step backward in 2023.
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR: Slight regression.
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Some random observations on a variety of developments:
*The publication of Evan Drellich's book, Winning Fixes Anything, contains some less-than-flattering stories about Red Sox manager Alex Cora's time with the Houston Astros. Drellich details Cora drinking to excess on many of the Astros' charter flights -- one ugly confrontation with team broadcaster Geoff Blum had already been reported -- and chronicles Cora's relationship with manager A.J. Hinch. The book also includes stories of Cora telling Red Sox players how the Astros' "stole'' the World Series from the Dodgers in 2017, weeks before he was hired to manage the Red Sox. While there's nothing that could potentially put Cora's job in Boston in jeopardy, the bragging about the sign-stealing runs counter to Cora's public comments, in which he's expressed a level of contrition for his involvement in the Houston scandal. It's difficult to square Cora's oft-repeated line about being away from the game "for all the right reasons'' in 2020 -- he was suspended by MLB for his involvement -- and some of the stories in the book, where he displays no remorse for his behavior. Then again, Cora would not be the first person in pro sports to say one thing publicly and act in an entirely different manner privately.
* Keith Law's rankings of MLB minor league system in The Athletic had the Red Sox ranked No. 23 out of the 30 MLB teams, and that assessment runs contrary to Chaim Bloom's belief that the Sox' system has improved by leaps and bounds since his arrival. Law is particularly critical of the team's starting pitching inventory, which seems like an on-target criticism. Other than Bryan Mata, most of the pitchers in the upper end of the system (Chris Murphy, Brandon Walter) are tweener types, more likely to contribute out of the bullpen than as productive members of the rotation. It's true that, aside from 2021, when they took Marcelo Mayer with the fourth pick overall, the Sox have not had many opportunities to choose in the Top 10, where the best starting pitching prospects are often selected. But other organizations -- Houston comes to mind, though they've done their best work in the pitching department through the international free agent market -- have managed to somehow find front-line starters. To be fair, because Brayan Bello slightly exceeded his rookie eligibility last season, he's not eligible for consideration here, and big things are expected of it. Then again, Bello was signed during the Dave Dombrowski administration.
* Unwittingly, the Red Sox have placed a target on the back of Ryan Brasier. Over the winter, the Sox have repeatedly needed to clear 40-man roster space for trade acquisitions or free-agent signings and every time, Brasier has managed to survive. In the meantime, the Red Sox sacrificed, either through release, a trade, or lost in the Rule 5 draft: (deep breath): Jake Reed, Darwinzon Hernandez, Connor Seabold, Matt Barnes, Franklin German, Noah Song, Andrew Politi, and Thaddeus Ward. If any of those pitchers goes on to a successful 2023 season, Bloom and the Baseball Operations department will have some major explaining to do. In the meantime, the Red Sox are bullish on Brasier's velocity, quality of stuff. Privately, the Sox acknowledge that Braiser has been inconsistent, but point to his experience, relative affordability, some past performance and his willingness to compete in high-leverage spots. But again, if Brasier falters and others flourish elsewhere, the Sox are going to be in a tough position -- one of their own doing.