According to Shams Charania, the Celtics are among the teams with “significant trade interest” in Spurs center Jakob Poeltl. There is some real interest in him around the league for sure because he’s a legit 7-footer who is a decent defender and can score around the rim. He’s not a floor spacer, but at 27 years old, he’s someone who can probably help in a win now situation.
That might seem to make him a fit for Boston, but I don’t see it that way. Here are a few reasons why I don’t think there's real fire behind this smoke.
1. The draft compensation gets tricky
They've already committed their 2023 first round to Indiana in the Malcolm Brogdon deal. The NBA’s “Stepien Rule” prevents teams from moving consecutive future first round picks, so a deal involving players and a first round pick gets a bit dicey since they could only offer 2025 or 2026 first rounders.
The 2024 pick is out (for now) because 2023 is committed. 2027 is out because 2028 is committed to San Antonio in the Derrick White deal. That leaves the 2025 or 2026 picks as possible trade options.
If the Celtics give up their 2025 pick now, they can’t pull their trick of trading the 2024 pick once the NBA calendar flips over the summer. Remember, Stepien prevents the Celtics from trading away firsts in FUTURE drafts. Once the 2023 draft happens and the new calendar year begins, the 2024 pick is back in play … but not if the 2025 pick is already committed.
Brad Stevens has been playing a fun little shell game with future first round picks, but that does make trade deadline deals a little trickier when it comes to players at Poeltl’s level. Is he worth Danilo Gallinari, Payton Pritchard, and a first rounder? We can have that discussion. But is he worth tying up all your future draft picks like this?
2. Are they really committing to this much salary at center?
Poeltl is making $9.3 million this year and then is an unrestricted free agent. He’s in a similar boat as Jaylen Brown in that agreeing to an extension now doesn’t make sense because he can get more once he hits free agency, so the Celtics can’t even lock him up if they want to.
And will they even want to? They have about $23 million committed to Robert Williams, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet for next season, which is about the right budget for a team at the center spot. Obviously someone would have to go, but they're also not going to commit $15 million or more per year to Poeltl to make him a depth option. Even if he rises above Horford next season, it’s a big ask to pay him about the same amount they're paying Horford and Williams combined moving forward.
Adrian Wojnarowski recently said Poeltl isn’t going to be interested in a 4-year/$58 million extension because he’s going to get more than that in free agency. If he’s looking to get somewhere around $20 million, then that's going to raise some questions about the construction of this roster.
Unless the Celtics can do Gallinari (who isn’t playing) and Pritchard (who needs a change of scenery) and a bunch of second round picks, they're not getting Poeltl as a rental. Other teams will certainly beat that offer, so it just doesn’t seem likely Boston will go that route.
3. How much does he enhance Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown vs. what they already have?
He’s good, but he’s not a floor spacer. Neither is Robert Williams, but at least he’s an elite passer from the high post. Obviously, the point of Poeltl would be insurance for this season and then the Horford succession plan moving forward, but he’s not the type of player Horford is. Poeltl’s strengths are around the rim, and he’s a good offensive rebounder, but if the Celtics were to commit more than $15 million to him next season, he’d be the sixth player on the roster making that or more. Those contracts alone would put the Celtics over the cap before factoring in $21 million for Williams and Horford and then six or seven more roster spots.
I know few people care about how much money the team is spending in taxes, but you do also have to understand there's a limit to how much the Celtics can really be expected to spend. And even if they are committed to spending that kind of money, is Poeltl really good enough to justify going that deep into the tax at that position?
He’s a good player, and there's a reason why there will be a lot of interest. And when there's a lot of interest, we tend to see bidding wars happen. I don’t think the Celtics can or even want to get into that for Poeltl, much less commit to the salary necessary to keep him while tying up their ability to make other moves.
It makes more sense to find a tweak on the wing at the deadline, trust that their plan for keeping Williams and Horford healthy will stick, and believe Kornet can handle whatever third-big workload he needs to hold it all together. Poeltl would be a really nice luxury, but not for the headaches acquiring him will cause.