The Celtics are at the halfway point of the regular season, but if we’re being honest, they're hoping one of the games to start February like the Nets or Suns are the actual halfway point of their season. Those are games 52 and 53, and 106 games is about right to win a championship.
Nevertheless, the Celtics, like much of the league, is at 41 games played. Here are some thoughts on the Celtics and the league as we turn the corner to the back nine.
- Gotta get the shooting right
It’s amazing to me that Boston has now dropped to 11th in the league in 3-point shooting, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, which filters out garbage time stats. The Celtics have become a middle-of-the-pack 3-point shooting team … for the season. They shot 32.7% as a team in December. They’ve shot below 30% in a game 10 times this season, seven of which have come after December 1.
For some perspective, the worst shooting team in the NBA, Charlotte, has shot below 30% 15 times, but only SIX since December 1.
Ouch.
To me, the issue remains the types of 3-pointers they take. If they attack the rim and make that a priority early, they can start getting some better looks to get themselves going. If they don’t, they're basically playing the slot machines and hoping they get lucky out there.
Maybe understanding that they're only good when they get themselves going is the best way for them to look at it. They're streakier than most shooters, so they have to get their shots a certain way. If they focus on that, then maybe they can get some easy buckets early and then let the shooting carry them later.
Either way, there's as much evidence that they're a bad shooting team as there is that they're lights out. Over their last 20 games, they're shooting 33.7% from 3. They shot 40.3% over their first 21. This goes beyond regression to the mean. This is flat out regression and I think shot selection is where it begins.
- The on/off stats are … interesting.
I’m not the biggest fan of on/off stats too early in the season because sample sizes can be skewed too easily.
But amongst guys who have played better than 1,000 minutes? That's getting us somewhere. Cleaning the Glass has Derrick White as Boston’s best +/- guy, with Boston out-scoring teams by 9.3 points per 100 possessions. Jayson Tatum is next among the 1,000+ minutes group at +5.4.
That's it for positives among the high-volume players. Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet are plusses in more limited minutes, but it’s interesting that Marcus Smart has dipped to -0.8. It’s basically even, but it’s still a negative. Boston shoots better when he’s on the floor (+2.7% effective field goal percentage), so he’s a plus as a point guard, but teams are averaging +3.3 points per 100 halfcourt possessions.
Let’s put a pin in this and see if Robert Williams changes that. Without a reliable rim protector there next to Al Horford, scoring on Boston was too easy for too long.
As for the other 1,000-minute guys, Grant Williams is -1.4. And then Jaylen Brown is -6.7.
Brown’s +/- is an outrageous number for a star player. On offense alone, Boston is seven full points worse when Brown is on the floor. Part of that could be that he’s having his worst 3-point shooting season of his career so far, shooting just 32.5%. But he’s having his best shooting season from 2 and from the line.
The team’s overall effective field goal percentage is down 1.7% with Brown on the floor. It’s +6.2% at the rim and +12.9% on long mid-range shots, which tracks with what we’ve seen from Brown at his best. But it’s down everywhere else on the floor.
Brown is a plus defensive player by slim margin, with opponents’ effective field goal percentages down 0.5% with him on the floor, so the drag is on the offense. I think Brown passing up a couple of 3-point opportunities to drive and even drive-and-kick might help this number.
There's no other way to put this. Brown at that big a minus can’t be something that continues. I think it just requires a minor tweak here and there, but those tweaks have to start coming soon.
I should also mention two rotation guys close to 1,000 minutes. Horford is -1.9 per 100 possessions in 971 minutes, and Malcolm Brogdon is -8.7 in 822.
I’ve mentioned Brogdon’s struggles before. I think we may have underestimated how tough the adjustment to Boston’s defense was, because most of this is reflected in teams scoring 6.7 more points per 100 possessions when Brogdon is on the floor, a +6.2 in the halfcourt. Shore that up some and the entire Brogdon experience will be better.
Again, I’m looking to Robert Williams as the answer. Ultimately, I think the best course of action is starting Williams, subbing him out with Tatum at the 6:00 mark, and starting second quarters with Brogdon, Tatum, and Williams on the floor. That gives Smart some backup at the beginning of games, and Brogdon the help he needs in the second quarter.
- I like Joe Mazzulla’s approach.
He has things to learn and I don’t think he should play certain guys as much as he has (though that's starting to level out a little), but I enjoy seeing someone challenge conventional thought when it comes to basketball.
Sure, there are things that have been done forever because they work. But also there are things that have been done forever because that's just how they’ve been done. Whether it’s a timeout or a lineup combination, or the shot profile he is looking for, I appreciate his willingness to challenge norms -- especially considering he’s still basically auditioning for the job long-term.
Obviously, as I’ve written in the past, he still holds the interim tag simply for legal reasons in the ongoing Ime Udoka suspension, but still holding that tag still does put him at risk of being an easy scapegoat if things fall apart.
Most guys will play it safe in that scenario, and maybe Mazzulla did as well by leaning so hard on Tatum and Brown to start the season, but as he’s grown in the job, he’s been willing to take some chances.
I also get a kick out of him not playing along with media questions. He’ll take every chance he gets to play with semantics and deflect questions. Some media members might get annoyed by that because we all want our quotes and answers for our stories, but I also appreciate the challenge of getting him to actually give good answers. I feel like if I can ask him a question that gets a real answer, I will have won the tug of war in that moment.
Hey, I like a challenge too, sometimes.
- Brad Stevens can step in
The Celtics have about a week to use the $6.9 million Juancho Hernangomez traded player exception. The $5.89 million Dennis Schröder exception will go away at the deadline. And there are combinations of players that can bring in guys who make more than those exceptions will allow (remember, TPEs can’t be combined, so you can’t mash them together to make a $12.8 million slot).
The Celtics have one open spot, so they might just ride out the trade market and go the buyout route. As was noted by Spotrac’s Keith Smith in the latest Locked On Celtics podcast, one guy to watch for would be Daniel Theis if he’s traded from the Pacers and waived. That way he’d become eligible to be reacquired by Boston and hey, why not bring back a guy who’s familiar with how things go around here?
I’m not sure how Stevens will approach things, but they have options. You can listen to me and Keith discussing those options here:
- Watch the Toronto Raptors at the deadline
At 18-23, the Raptors are in a bit of a bind. They lost Otto Porter, whom they acquired from the Warriors in the offseason, to season-ending foot surgery. Fred VanVleet is mired in the worst shooting season of his career. Scottie Barnes is in a bit of a sophomore slump.
It’s a mess up north, and the result is growing buzz that the Raps are going to be sellers at the trade deadline. VanVleet is an interesting name to watch as a “change of scenery” kind of guy, but who will want to pay a 29-year-old small point guard his next big contract? We’ve seen sub-6 foot point guards fall off cliffs time and time again, but he’s still a good player who can probably make a huge difference for a team at the deadline.
Will the Raptors make that move? Will they go deeper into a rebuild and hope to just tank for Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson? They might actually think Henderson is the better fit to move forward with Barnes and OG Anunoby. Anunoby is still only 25, so he’s still young enough to be considered a keeper in a rebuild.
That leaves the obvious name, Pascal Siakam, as the real player to watch. Are they willing to move a guy who is challenging for an All-NBA team this year? Who is willing to make the move for him?
With surprising teams like the Indiana Pacers becoming less likely to sell off pieces, the disappointing Raptors might be able to look at this as an opportunity for a quick rebuild.
Sell off some players of value, get a bunch of draft picks, hope for luck to get a top two pick, and then flip the future picks acquired for VanVleet and Siakam for disgruntled All-Star level players looking to move on.
Some good timing, timing, the intestinal fortitude to make tough moves now before the whole thing comes crashing down, and some luck could put Toronto in a position to be in the top half of the standings within a couple of seasons.
- Nikola Jokic is the MVP so far
Sorry, but that's just how it is. The Nuggets have just two fewer wins than Boston, Michael Porter, Jr. and Jamal Murray have only been around for a small part of the season, and Jokic has been at the center (no pun intended) of everything.
I went over the +/- numbers for the Celtics before and Tatum looked pretty good at +5.4. Jokic is +25.1. TWENTY FIVE POINT ONE!!
Joel Embiid is +12.5. Luka Doncic is +11.4. Giannis Antetokounmpo is +4.9.
Best team in the West, dominating the competition, absolutely the most vital player to his team’s success. We can talk about voter fatigue all we want, but right now, Jokic is my MVP.