On the face of it, the news that the Red Sox and Rafael Devers managed to avoid arbitration Tuesday with a one-year, $17.5 million deal, would seem to be a positive development.
And it is. The mere fact that the Sox and Devers won't be haggling in front of an arbitrator next month, with the Red Sox pointing out deficiencies in Devers' game as part of the process, is a good thing. The last thing the Red Sox need is a contentious showdown with a star players they're attempting to sign to a contract extension.
But to suggest that the mere avoidance of an arbitration hearing is grounds for optimism is a bit over the top.
In January of 2020, the Red Sox avoided salary arbitration with outfielder Mookie Betts, who, like Devers, was entering the final year of team control. As with Devers currently, the Red Sox were still saying they wanted to get Betts signed to a long-term extension.
A little over a month after the agreement with Betts, however, the Sox dealt him (and David Price) to the Los Angeles Dodgers, a deal that Red Sox fans still bemoan nearly three years later.
So, precedent doesn't mean much here.
Yes, it beats the alternative and demonstrates that, on a smaller scale, the Sox and representatives for the third baseman can work out a deal. It beats the (nastier) alternative, for sure.
But beyond that, it carries little long-term significance. Having scaled a small hill together, the Red Sox and the representatives for Devers still have a sizable mountain to climb.
Given the size of some deals signed this offseason, Devers is probably looking for a deal of at least 10 years in length, and well in excess of $300 million, easily surpassing the biggest contract in franchise history -- the one given to Price (seven years, $217 million).
The $17.5 million agreement is slightly higher than the $16.9 million deal projected by MLBTradeRumors.com.
The signing of Devers leaves the Red Sox with only a handful of arbitration-eligible players, including Alex Verdugo, Christian Arroyo, Reese McGuire, Nick Pivetta, Josh Taylor and Ryan Brasier.
Teams are due to exchange figures with arbitration-eligible players on Jan. 11.
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The Miami Herald reported this week that the Marlns could be a logical trade partner with the Red Sox. The Marlins are in search of an impact bat and have a number of starting pitchers whom they could deal in exchange. Among them: Pablo Lopez, Jesus Lazardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers. The Marlins are said to consider No. 1 starter Sandy Alcantara untouchable.
In exchange for giving up a starting pitcher, the story suggested that the Marlins would be interested in first baseman Triston Casas, a native of south Florida.
But one source with familiar with the Marlins' thinking maintained that no substantive talks between the clubs, with one person confident that the Sox would not be willing to move Casas.
Indeed, the Red Sox view Casas as a potential middle-of-the-order fixture for years to come and don't have any alternatives at first base, making a deal involving Casas highly unlikely.
The Sox are known to have interest in infielder Joey Wendle to improve their depth but such a deal would be far smaller in scope.
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J.T. Watkins, who some believe was unfairly scapegoated when the organization was found to have bent the rules about sign-stealing several seasons ago, has left the Red Sox and taken a job with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Watkins will help coordinate the Dodgers' hitting game planning.
Watkins, whose history with the club dates back to 2017, was suspended by Major League Baseball for the 2020 season. Following an MLB investigation, Watkins was found to have used his position as the team's video replay coordinator to view signs from the opposing team and relay some of that information to players in-game.
The Red Sox never fired Watkins and utilized him as a scout in 2021-2022.
According to a source, Watkins' hiring came partly as a result of strong recommendations from J.D. Martinez -- who signed with the Dodgers last month -- and Betts.