It’s 2023, the Celtics are the best team in the league, and they're coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season. There's plenty to be happy about with this team, and the start of a new year is always full of unbridled optimism. And since I will not pass up any opportunity for an easy theme, let’s head into 2023 with 23 reasons to feel really, really good about this team’s chances.
1. They got a nice head start: The Celtics are the first team out to 26 wins this season and the only team to win at least 70% of their games. As we just saw from their recent skid, that head start has given them a little leeway to have bumps in the road and still be in a good position. They briefly dipped to second during that stretch, but now they have a two game lead as the top seed.
2. Jayson Tatum: He’s a notoriously slow starter who is averaging 31 points a game as we flip the calendar. And he’s doing it while only shooting 35.4% from 3. Here’s one stat that makes me feel good about him increasing that: He’s shooting 37.3% on the road and only 33.7% at home. That makes no sense, and usually stats that make no sense find a way of leveling off. He’s a legitimate MVP candidate, and teams with MVP candidates tend to go pretty far.
3. Jaylen Brown: He could get himself some MVP votes himself, which means Brown could be on his way to an All-NBA season. He’s shooting 54% in the mid-range, better than Kyrie Irving, Steph Curry, DeMar DeRozan, and many others known for taking advantage of that soft spot in NBA defenses. That's a championship-winning shot, and if he can maximize his ability there, then he can make an in-season leap.
4. Marcus Smart: You wanted a pass-first point guard? You got him. He’s taking only 9.5 shots per game while averaging 7.4 assists. He’s a pace-pusher and with Tatum and Brown looking for cuts (Brown especially), he’s finding stars for easy baskets to get them going. As for his scoring, his finishing around the rim is much better, his 2-point percentage is at a career-high 54%, and he’s making his 3-pointers at about league average. Most importantly, he mostly shoots as a release valve for the offense to keep defenses honest. He’s the point guard people have been looking for.
5. They're figuring out how to deal with adversity: Between the coaching mess to start the season and the mid-December swoon, these guys have faced adversity and learned how to come out the other side of it well. In some ways, the recent rough patch could be good for the team because it showed them that getting away from their successful playing style wasn’t going to cut it. Individually, they're talented, but as a collective they're unbeatable. It was good for them to figure that out before Christmas.
6. The defense is getting better: The job they did on the Clippers was pretty good, I think. Even though Kawhi Leonard hit for a high percentage, they took the ball out of his hands enough to minimize his impact. Their defensive rating sank into the mid 20s to start the season, but now they sit at seventh. They have the league’s best offense again, and their net rating of +7 is almost two full points better than the second-place Cavaliers.
7. Robert Williams looks good: His help defense is basically right back to where it always was, his bounce is back, and he seems to be running without any issues. He’s seeing the floor well, making great passes, and coming out of games feeling pretty good. With Boston at the top of the standings, they can take their time to make sure he’s ready for a deep playoff run.
8. They're winning without shooting: They’ve dropped to seventh in the NBA in 3-point percentage, and they were 26th in December. They've won four straight games while shooting a total of 35%. For a team that lived and died by the 3-pointer, learning to win without shooting lights out is a nice development.
9. There are coaching lessons being learned: As I noted after the Clippers game, there are some things Joe Mazzulla can pick up from the two games without him and incorporate moving forward. Sometimes watching someone else do your job successfully can be a real motivator to add to how you do things.
10. The schedule is easing up: According to Tankathon, Boston has the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, with a current combined winning percentage of .490.
11. The opposition isn’t exactly tearing it up: Milwaukee is 4-6 in their last 10 and they’ve fallen 2.5 games behind Boston. Cleveland is 6-4. Philly has gotten back on track some, but they’ve only pulled themselves up to the fifth seed with their run. Boston’s gotten on track and while it’s not exactly “separation,” they’ve built a little lead at the top of the standings.
12. Okay, the one team that is tearing it up isn’t trustworthy: Brooklyn has won 11 straight games and is now two games behind the Celtics in second place. Good for Brooklyn, but they're doing behind some historic shooting numbers from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, and those are simply not sustainable. Irving is on his best behavior because he wants a new contract, and Durant is 10th in minutes per game, sixth in total minutes. Tell me you trust that Irving will go the rest of the season as a choir boy and Durant will stay healthy. I don’t.
13. Their schedules are all worse than Boston’s: As of right now, Sacramento, Washington, Memphis, and Toronto all have easier schedules than Boston. That's it. All of Boston’s competition has a tougher schedule moving forward.
14. Brad Stevens has a lot of options if he needs them: He has two traded player exceptions and salary of players not in the rotation that can be combined to match a decent player. If he’s on the trade market looking for an upgrade, he can be competitive. He can even use a TPE to make a waiver claim if he wanted (that rarely ever happens, but it’s an option). He can also open a roster spot or two by waiving Justin Jackson and/or Noah Vonleh, whose contracts are non-guaranteed, before the January 10 guarantee date. That will allow for some space for buyout or 10-day guys. So this team can get better.
15. Success makes guys want to play for teams: When it comes to making decisions, buyout guys love latching onto championship contenders. Chances are Boston will be at the front of the line when it comes to the buyout market.
16. Success makes guys want to stay: Don’t expect any drama within these walls. This is a team whose stars are fully committed … unlike Brooklyn where Durant’s trade demand might not be discussed, but it’s not forgotten. Or Philly, where it was rumored last week that James Harden would be open to a return to Houston.
17. This team is made up of guys who want to win: The discussion of whether to bring Robert Williams off the bench or start him was met with a “I just wanna win” from the TimeLord. Derrick White is similarly open to whatever role is necessary. Malcolm Brogdon walked into this season knowing he’d be a sixth man. Everyone is open to doing the little things.
18. This team is made up of good guys: I’ve been in a few locker rooms in my time, and this one feels pretty good. There's never any hint of tension. There's a good mix of serious and goofy. The stars don’t carry themselves above anyone else, and the veterans are great character guys. This doesn't come around all that often at this level.
19. Al Horford is a steadying force: The beauty of Horford’s role this year is that he’s not relied on to do much more than shoot and defend. He can still muscle in a hook shot when he needs to, but he’s become a very good floor spacer, and we’ve seen him make big defensive plays in recent wins. On a team with so many other players to worry about, Horford gives Boston good options on both ends. And Tatum and Brown respect the hell out of him, so if he ever needs to say something to them, they will listen.
20. Ownership is behind them: They’ve taken some lumps in recent years for their tax gymnastics, and I get that. This isn’t a team that can just pay the tax all the time like the Clippers or Warriors. Boston’s owners didn’t run one of the biggest tech companies ever or build their own arena, so they don’t play by the same rules. But they didn’t mess with the opportunity to build this team, and by virtue of that, they're committed to paying the tax for years to come.
21. Brad Stevens knows how to do his job: As much as this is about him knowing how to evaluate talent, it’s also about him knowing the tricks of trade timing and construction. He also knows how to do things that satisfy both the team and ownership. He flipped Kemba Walker for Al Horford. He got Brogdon for spare parts. He improved the team to a point where owners can’t refuse to play ball and pay deeper into the tax if it means a better chance at a championship.
22. Television exposure: January can be a bit of a wonky month, but the Celtics are on national TV seven times (counting NBA TV) during the month. It’s just a little extra motivation for the guys to show the world … and awards voters … their best.
23. Experience: They talk constantly about having been there and knowing what it takes to actually win a championship. They suffered no hangover from the loss, instead using it as motivation to do the things they didn’t know they had to do last season. You can hear it in what they say after games. They are focused on a goal.
I hope 2023 is going to be a great year for all of you. I’m really excited to see what’s coming up and to help guide everyone through the ups and downs of the Celtics season.