It's already started with the In Bill We Trust, Beli-anons. It has already infiltrated my inbox, and my glorious mentions on Twitter - from those I haven't muted or blocked to save some semblance of sanity ...
"Yeah, this was part of Bill's plan. Patricia was just a placehold-ah. He knew he had Billy O'Brien in his back pocket the whole time, kid. Bill's still playing chess."
If you really believe that, we should have a Santa Claus discussion.
It's complete and utter rubbish. Fantasy-land stuff.
I unWith Tom Brady off still doing his thing (mostly), the Patriots have to still be special in some way, even though they are just 24-25 since TB12 went out the door, and are now closer to the AFC East basement on an annual basis than the top. The talent level largely doesn't make the Patriots one-of-a-kind anymore, so belief must fall on the Altar of Belichick for the faithful that refuses to admit the new reality that the Patriots are just another NFL team, no matter how many penalties, blocked punts, screen passes and game management screwups they see on a weekly basis. When you've enjoyed 20-plus years of superiority over the rest of the NFL, it must be difficult to adjust to the new NFL-world order. I get it.
But in the real world, the Patriots are no longer special — especially Belichick, although as a coach he's still pretty damn good.
The O'Brien stuff, though, is a crock of something.
Let me lay it out for you, before we get into the Dolphins' matchup and our NFL thoughts.
1. If this was just a one-year bridge year — especially to O'Brien — you don't do anything the Patriots did this year.
If O'Brien was the guy all along, that meant Mac Jones and the rest of the offense would be running the Patriots' offense in 2021 and 2023 (and beyond). You do not spend the bridge year of 2022 wasting an entire training camp — and your first-round QB's entire second season — learning a mostly new scheme with new terminology. You don't take away a veteran center's ability to work with the QB — always a bedrock of the Patriots' system — to make sure the protection was sound, and the run blocking on point.
If this was just a one-year thing, then Belichick would have promoted the most senior offensive coach, Nick Caley, and had him continue to build on what Jones and the 2021 free agent class learned in their first seasons. Belichick wouldn't have cared if Caley was just waiting for his contract to run out and leave because he had O'Brien coming back. Belichick would have wisely used Caley for continuity's sake, and this season would have been much better on offense. Then it was time to be a real contender again in 2023. You also would have had Matt Patricia concentrate on the offensive line to aid that dumpster fire more.
Instead, we're supposed to believe the Patriots just wasted a year — going way backward — because of some Belichick masterplan? It literally makes no sense.
2. Patriots will likely not be O'Brien's only option.
Since O'Brien wasn't really a serious head coaching candidate for any college job — despite a great resume for that considering his time at Penn State, the Texans and Alabama — it sure seems like he wants to be back in pro ball. We'll see what happens after Alabama's final game today, but people close to O'Brien expect him to be an NFL head coaching candidate first and foremost. He may think he has the Patriots in his back pocket, but that's not his aspiration.
Plus, if Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing gets a head job — he should be a top candidate — then Mike Vrabel might be calling his former boss with the Titans. And Josh McDaniels may look to add a more experienced offensive voice to free him up as a head coach, and could also be an option. Both situations might be better from O'Brien's perspective. Plus, there are family considerations O'Brien will weigh after the past two seasons in Tuscaloosa.
Yes, O'Brien has yet to receive a contract extension from Nick Saban, but that's not unusual. Things can change and maybe O'Brien would like to say considering Saban is not getting any younger. A lot could happen with O'Brien now that his contract is up.
O'Brien was asked at the Sugar Bowl this week about the Patriots' rumors.
“Like I said, it’s kind of that time of the year when things come up and things pop up," he said. "I haven’t spoken to anybody in New England since probably last April when I went by and saw those guys when I was up there. I wish them well in however many games they have left. We’re very focused on this game and focused on coaching this team to the best of our ability.”
Of course, coaches have agents to give them plausible deniability.
3. Belichick badly wanted Patricia to work out - for now, and the future.
So you want me to believe that, if Patricia and all his changes worked out, the offense was as good or better than last year, and the Patriots improved off last season and at least contended in a playoff game, that Belichick was not going to run everything back again? He was going to tell Patricia, his bosom buddy, to stand down?
No. Freaking. Way.
Belichick thought this was going to work, and that would have been glorious to Belichick. It would have been another stroke of genius no one saw coming - enhancing his legacy even more - and it would have enhanced the resume of Patricia as Belichick's possible successor.
Belichick's ideal plan: Patricia takes over the offense, the Patriots become contenders again, Belichick gets the 28 total wins and 32 regular-season wins to pass both of Don Shula's records in the next three seasons, wins another Super Bowl in the process — and now Belichick has a strong case to make to the Krafts to keep Patricia as head coach and Belichick's structure in place after he retires.
Most of that has gone up in flames this season, and Patricia's successor story too a major hit. That was nowhere in the plans.
4. Belichick himself would not be pulling any levers to make this happen at this point.
There are only two ways O'Brien's potential return to New England would be locked up at this point:
- Saban, knowing O'Brien's NFL aspirations/family situation and perhaps Alabama's need to go in another direction, picked up the phone and called Belichick to start the wheels in motion to find O'Brien a landing spot. Certainly the Patriots make sense for many reasons, including his ability to run the Patriots' offense, a relationship with Mac Jones, and ownership being fond of him to the point of being a possible Belichick successor. But that would have had to start with Saban. I don't rule that out. It could have happened, but Belichick would not have instigated it as part of some masterplan.
- Ownership reached out to O'Brien and told them they want him here, and either Belichick agrees to that after the season or perhaps O'Brien is the next Patriots' coach if Belichick refuses changes.
I can tell you what would not happen:
- Belichick would not call Saban about anyone on his staff, especially during Alabama's season. Too much respect there. Plus, Belichick does not think about this stuff until his own season is over. That's why Josh McDaniels agreed to take the Colts job when he did, and then changed his mind - he had not spoken to Belichick about any of that, and that discussion did not happen until after the season.
- O'Brien would not come close to even looking like he was angling for someone's job, especially friends of his and guys he used to coach with. O'Brien is decidedly not that kind of guy. Patricia and Judge are not likely to be going anywhere. Talk about awkward if they think O'Brien was trying to push them out. That just wouldn't happen.
The bottom line is this: O'Brien could very well be back here soon after the season concludes. I hope it happens for the Patriots' sake — it's the best possible path for them to rebound quickly next season. O'Brien is also a damn good coach, and would be a good succession plan for Belichick.
But just because O'Brien returns doesn't mean it was some final stroke of Belichick's genius — it's because Belichick's failings left him desperate and with no other choice.
Root for O'Brien to return. Just don't make it about Belichick. It's not.
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A closer look at the matchup and our game pick:
OVERALL WEIGHTED DVOA: Dolphins 9th, Patriots 17th
OFFENSE
Dolphins DVOA: 8th overall, 2nd pass, 14th rush
Patriots D: 2nd overall, 3rd pass, 10th rush
DEFENSE
Dolphins DVOA: 16th overall, 25th pass, 9th rush
Patriots O: 31st overall, 29th pass, 27th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS WEIGHTED DVOA
Patriots 30th, Dolphins 27th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
Passing offense vs. Dolphins blitz: Yup, you read that right. Josh Boyer is blitz crazy but it often works to his disadvantage because Miami can't cover as well as it used to with CB Byron Jones. Patriots can make some plays if it is aggressive.
DE Josh Uche vs. wounded LT Terron Armstead/replacement: The veteran LT is a game-time decision with about five different injuries. He's barely taped together at this point, and back OT Eric Fisher is doubtful. If Kendall Lamm has to play ... good lord, he's terrible. Should be easy pickings for Uche.
DT Christian Barmore vs. LG Robert Jones/Liam Eichenberg: Eichenberg is another gametime decision after being out for several games. Either way, the Dolphins LG's are not any good. Barmore wasn't great in his second game back with a good matchup. Time for him to dominate.
WR Nelson Agholor vs. CB Keion Crossen: Dolphins have a rash of injuries in the secondary like the Patriots, and the biggest weakspot is the former Patriot and special teams standout. Agholor needs to eat in this game for New England to win.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle: Patriots won't have Jack (done for season on IR) or Marcus Jones, and Jalen Mills has practiced once with a groin injury. Patriots signed DB Tae Hayes to the 53-man roster from the practice squad and elevated DB Quandre Mosely to help combat the Dolphins. Good luck to Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant, Shaun Wade and the practice squadders. The pass rush needs to be elite.
DT Christian Wilkins vs. LG Cole Strange: Wilkins normally plays over the RG, but I can't see them sticking with that in this matchup. Wilkins is the one of the best DTs in the game. He's going to be trouble for anyone.
DE Jaelan Phillips vs. RT Conor McDermott: Phillips is a great young pass rusher with speed and strength. And while he gives up the edge in the run game, he's tough to block.
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Go for broke: It's Week 16. The season is almost over, and the Patriots have to win. Please, Bill, don't play this safe. Go down swinging, which is what you did in the second half vs. the Bengals last week. Don't be afraid to blitz, don't be afraid to go all verticals down the field in the passing game. Let it fly, baby.
2. Beat the blitz: The Patriots know Boyer well, and that means a ton of dumb blitzes. Patriots can't hold serve there, they need to look at it as an opportunity to make big plays.
3. Clog the middle of the field vs. pass: The Dolphins, even with Teddy Bridgewater, love to throw timing routes in the middle of the field off playaction and RPOs. It's going to be very important that the LBs prioritize their pass drops over defending the run — let them run all they want (McDaniel won't). Patriots can get a pick on one of those plays.
4. Don't be stupid: Patriots, in their 4-game losing streak to the Dolphins, always seem to make a dumb play that determines the game. For once, please play smart. Limit the penalties. No busts. No bad special teams plays. Don't be the Jets.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Pariots -2.5. O/U: 41.
Bedard's record: 12-2 straight up, 11-3 vs. spread
Bridgewater has only played a lot in one game, a 24-16 loss to the Vikings, this season — and he came in relief that game after not practicing much with a concussion. He came in relief of Tua Tagovailoa against the Bengals, then in the one game he prepared for (Jets), he left after one play with a concussion.
Bridgewater is not Tua, but he's pretty similar and is very smart. He'll know when to deliver the ball and how to elude some rush. He's better than the other backups the Patriots have beaten in six of their seven wins. Patriots are going to have to play well to beat him.
I think the Patriots will actually look like a real offense in this game, but in the end the Dolphins just have too much offensive talent and speed for this defense, which is still too slow in too many spots.
Bedard's Pick: Dolphins 27, Patriots 24.
(Getty Images)
NFL NOTEBOOK
1. McDaniels had no other choice on Derek Carr: People love to hate on Josh McDaniels and he's certainly not perfect, but the film on Carr over many seasons — and especially this one — left him no other choice. Carr simply cost this team too many games. It's on film. It's there. Despite everyone's best effort, it was not going to work beyond this year. The Raiders couldn't risk him being injured and killing the cap and any chance to replace him. It's not ideal that Carr and the team agreed for him to stay away, but it was prudent for both sides.
2. Now Vegas needs to land a big-time QB: DeVante Adams, Josh Jacobs (probably back at least on franchise tag) and Darren Waller aren't going to be good soldiers if they replace Carr with a rookie, a retread or even a Mac Jones. As long as McDaniels and Dave Ziegler land a big-time QB — Tom Brady is logical as a bridge guy, but wouldn't rule out a run at Lamar Jackson — all will be fine and they can get to business on fixing a bad defense.
3. No grand proclamations on Tua: Everyone seems to have an opinion on what the Dolphins and Tua should do now that he suffered another concussion. You won't see that here. That's up to doctors and Tua. Everyone is different. No one else is in those shoes.
4. Mac Jones is no dirty player: Yeah, he's had a few incidents and was just fined twice for separate infractions against the Bengals. He wouldn't be the first football player to cross the lines a couple of times, and he needs to improve on that. But I guarantee you his teammates love him and his competitive spirit and, to Jones, that's all that really matters.
5. Are we sure this is what we want with 17 games, extra playoff spot? Seems like every team is limping to the finish, you have a bunch of mediocre, at best, teams battling to get slayed by a contender. Now you have teams resting players in Week 16 (Titans, Jaguars) just for more important Week 17 games. This really how we want the NFL to finish every year? Give me back 16 games and two byes — some real competition.