Rafael Devers is under control through the 2023 season, at which point he'll be eligible for free agency.
In theory, that gives the Red Sox almost 11 months to secure Devers to a long-term contract without any interference from other clubs. The Sox could sign him this winter or they could sign him in spring training. Or they could get something done over the course of the 2023 season, or next October, before the free agent market kicks into high gear.
In theory being the operative phrase here.
Because if the Red Sox don't have Devers extended before Opening Day, he could well be out the door.
Given how things have transpired the last four or so years with the organization, it's hard to have much faith that the Red Sox will emerge victorious from a bidding war once Devers can listen to offers from others. And there's every chance that if he hasn't been signed to an extension by the time the next regular season gets underway, Devers and his representatives will say that they don't wish to negotiate during the season, claiming that such talks would only serve as a distraction to Devers and his teammates.
That means there's about three and a half months to get a deal wrapped up. Or else.
Already, the trend of lengthy deals within the industry has raised the bar for a player of Devers' caliber. If Carlos Correa, two years his senior, can command a 13-year deal, why wouldn't Devers? Trea Turner, who is almost four years older, secured an 11-year deal from the Philadelphia Phillies. Devers is just 26; what's to stop him from demanding a deal that will him take him to 40, resulting in a 14-year contract? It's hardly out of the question.
Sure, Correa and Turner are both shortstops, arguably a more important, more athletic (and expensive) position. But it could be argued that, by playing third base, where range is less of a factor, Devers could thrive longer. And of course, he could easily transition to either first base or DH for the last few years of a particularly long deal.
There's already precedent for lengthy contracts for third basemen. Nolan Arenado got eight years and $260 million from the Colorado Rockies before the Rockies shipped him to St. Louis. And the Los Angeles Angels, foolishly or not, gave Anthony Rendon seven years and $245 million prior to the 2020 season.
Devers is clearly superior to Rendon -- who has been sharply limited by injuries in his last two seasons in Anaheim -- and while Devers isn't close to the defender than Arenado is, offensively, the two are quite similar: Both have a career OPS+ of 124; Arendao has a career OPS of .881 and Devers is at .854.
But forget the comps for a second -- what should worry Red Sox fans the most is the team's unwillingness to match the demands of the market.
Recall that the Red Sox offered about 60 percent of the total package Bogaerts got from the Padres. While San Diego was willing to go to $280 million, the Red Sox' last, best offer was at $167 million. And the Padres deal was nearly twice as long -- a dozen years to the Red Sox' six.
That hardly inspires confidence. And while Bogaerts is playing, for now, a more demanding position and is four years older, the Red Sox' inability to meet the moment in terms of the marketplace is more than a little troubling.
On Chaim Bloom's watch, the Red Sox have given out just two deals in excess of four years -- the six-year, $140 million deal for Trevor Story last March, and the five-year, $90 million deal awarded to Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida just last week.
A deal to extend Devers will easily cost more than those two combined in terms of value. What's more, it's likely that it will be necessary to commit to a deal at least as long (11 years) as the two put together.
And again, it's not just a matter of ponying up the money; it's also about the timetable. Because recent history teaches us that the Red Sox have no stomach for getting into a bidding war to retain one of their own players. They didn't budge when the dollars kept piling up for Bogaerts earlier this month, and fearing that no amount of money offered to Mookie Betts, they preemptively traded him to the Dodgers before the start of the 2020 season.
Will we see a similar approach taken with Devers? In other words, if the Sox get a sense over the next two months that they can/t/won't meet his asking price, do they take a similar path, cut their losses and move Devers in February or March and get what they can for him?
If so, it's hard to think of a more calamitous undertaking from a PR standpoint. The fan base is livid over the inability to keep Bogaerts, and still far from over the disappointment of losing Betts. A third white flag -- selling their best player to the highest bidder -- would represent a true bottoming-out for the team's standing in the market.
Imagine the reaction when, for the second time in the span of three months, the team refuses to pay the going rate and surrendered a homegrown All-Star? Calamitous is not too strong a word for what would follow.
And yet, the alternative isn't any prettier. If the Sox can't satisfy Devers in January and February when they enjoy exclusivity, what gives you any confidence they could do it next November or December, when the Yankees, Dodgers and other heavyweights could send the asking price soaring?
There's always the trade deadline, of course. But that brings with it complications. What if, against all logic, the Red Sox are in the middle of playoff contention come July? Instead of bolstering their roster for the stretch run and postseason, the Red Sox would be consumed by subtracting their most potent bat from the lineup. They didn't do that with Bogaerts last summer, though in retrospect, they probably should have. Even if they got 50 cents on the dollar for two-plus months of Bogaerts, it surely would have been a better return for him than what the Sox will end up with -- a comp pick after the fourth round in next summer's draft.
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The notion of trading Devers --this winter or next summer -- comes with its own concerns, of course, not the least of which is the team's track record on deals since Bloom took over.
While Bloom has made some solid deals -- getting Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree being the most obvious win -- two bigger deals have yielded decidedly less in terms of talent.
When the Sox moved Betts, they got Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong and Jeter Downs in return. Verdugo, to date, has been a league-average outfielder -- somewhat limited defensively and apparently incapable of providing power. His home run percentage has declined in each of his last two seasons, and his career home run percentage rate is a measly 2.3 percent, far below the MLB average of 3.1 percent in that span. That's hardly the production one would expect from a corner outfielder.
Downs was DFA'd by the Red Sox earlier in the week, after failing to hit .200 at Triple-A in either of his last two seasons. His brief time in the big leagues was equally disappointing, resulting in a startling strikeout rate of 51.2 percent.
It's still early to determine Wong's ceiling, but at this point, it would seem that would be no more than a backup big league catcher. That at least represents some value -- far more than that of Downs, to be sure. But in total, a league-average outfielder and a fringe backup at catcher is hardly suitable return for Betts, who is among the best dozen players in the game.
(In fairness, Bloom was forced by ownership to include David Price and half his remaining salary in the deal, surely lessening the return).
Still, the return has been underwhelming. Contrast what the Sox got for Betts (with a year of control remaining) with how the Cleveland Guardians did with Francisco Lindor. Cleveland knew it couldn't afford to extend Lindor, and traded him to the New York Mets, also with a year of control left. In exchange, the Guardians got an All-Star second baseman in Andres Gimenez and shortstop Amed Rosario. (Like the Red Sox, the Guardians also included a veteran starting pitcher with health and salary concerns, Carlos Carrasco.)
To date, the return hasn't been any better for Andrew Benintendi, who, it should be noted, doesn't belong in the same sentence with Betts or Devers, but is included here because he was an everyday position player whom the Sox moved and for whom they acquired five young players.
Already, one of the two principals -- Franchy Cordero -- has been DFA'd and claimed by the Baltimore Orioles. Cordero was a disaster for Boston, striking out at a staggering rate and failing altogether as a first baseman. The other principal, pitcher Josh Winckowski, would seem to be, at best, a depth starter option. More realistically, he profiles as an up-and-down long reliever, with little ability to get big-league hitters to swing and miss.
There are three young prospects still in the Red Sox' system -- pitchers Grant Gambrell and Luis de la Rosa and outfielder Freddy Valdez. Gambrel hasn't pitched in a game since August of 2021 due to a severe ankle injury and de la Rosa struggled mightily at Low Single A last year. Only Valdez, with a plus-power tool, is seen as any sort of legitimate prospect among the three.
Auctioning established stars for a group of prospects is, admittedly, an inexact science. There's a lot of projection necessary, and a ton of variables in play, including injuries, that can't be anticipated.
But coming from an organization in which strong player evaluation was an absolute necessity, it's disappointing that the two biggest deals made by Bloom have, to date, yielded so little.
And just as it's difficult at the moment to have confidence that the organization as a whole can see its way to getting a deal done with Devers -- team president Sam Kennedy and ownership are part of this failing equation, too, given the size of the investment -- it's also hard to have faith that, if worse comes to worse and the Sox trade Devers that a suitable return can be found.
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Before the Red Sox designated Eric Hosmer for assignment Friday, they spent the prior few weeks attempting to find a taker for him on the trade market, only to find little interest.
Hosmer's no-trade clause -- activated when he was shipped from San Diego to the Red Sox at the deadline -- could have been an impediment, since the Sox would have essentially needed him to sign off on any proposed deal.
But even before that could be a factor, the Sox found little interest. This, despite the fact that Hosmer is under control for three more seasons at the major league minimum -- a total of $2.2 million.
"You'd be surprised (at the lack of interest),'' said one major league executive of the marketplace.
It's one thing for the Red Sox to express confidence in Triston Casas and his readiness to take over the starting first base job. But the subtraction of Hosmer from the mix leaves the Red Sox will little insurance at the position -- for now, Bobby Dalbec is it. And that should be more than a little alarming, given that Casas, for all his potential and strike zone acumen, has lost significant time in each of the last two seasons due to lower leg injuries.
If Casas were to get hurt early next season, the Sox would be right back where they started at the position.