It's funny how you forget certain things over time.
With all of Bill Belichick's wild success and six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots from 2001-2019, it's easy to forget how it all started in New England.
And it wasn't exactly gangbusters.
After finishing 5-11 with the Browns in 1995, Belichick took over a Patriots team far from down in the dumps. Between Bill Parcells (one year) and Pete Carroll (three), the Patriots had made the playoffs 3 of the previous 4 seasons and were competitive, even at the end of Carroll — 11-5 (Super Bowl) in 1996, 10-6, 9-7 and 8-8 in 1999.
With that backdrop, Belichick started 0-4 in New England and 2-8 before finishing 5-11 during his initial campaign. When the team started 1-3 in 2001 and with Drew Bledsoe out injured for some late-round pick named Tom Brady, coaches on the staff were worried about whether they would last the season.
Belichick was mired in a stretch of being 10-26 to that point.
Can you imagine if Twitter was around then, how many times Belichick would have been fired?
Then Brady and the Patriots won in overtime against the Chargers and everything changed forever.
No one is saying Josh McDaniels is going to be Belichick II, but you can't deny how their respective starts are similar.
McDaniels, who was 2-8 in Denver after starting 6-0, was fired after a 3-9 start to the 2010 season with the Broncos. In his first season with the Raiders, he's 5-8.
So McDaniels is now 10-25 in his last 35 games. Sounds familiar.
What McDaniels does from here on out remains to be seen, but he and Belichick were hired for the exact same reason by their owners: to build a sustainable winner.
Yes, the Raiders went 10-7 and made the playoffs last year. But it represented just the second playoff berth since losing the 2002 Super Bowl, and there were countless coaches in those 20 years. When it came to making this hire after Jon Gruden's exit, owner Mark Davis wanted to break the franchise free of its tumultuous past and set the franchise on more firm footing, which led to the alignment of Dave Ziegler and McDaniels as GM and coach. Davis didn't hire them to build off the previous year. He hired them to build the Raiders up right, and sometimes that takes a step back.
“As far as Josh goes, I have no issues,” Davis told the Review-Journal in November amid a 2-7 start. “I’m getting to know him a lot better. When you sign someone to a contract, don’t you expect him to fulfill the contract? I like Josh. I think he’s doing a fantastic job. You have to look at where we came from and where we’re going.
“We had a coach (Jon Gruden) with a 10-year contract and a 10-year plan, He had to leave the team last year. So we did an exhaustive search and found the person we believe is going to bring the Raiders to greatness in the future.”
“We’re in the process of building something,” Davis said. “Life isn’t static. It’s fluid. You want to win at the end of the year and be the one holding the trophy. Obviously, we’re not there yet. I know it’s frustrating for the fan base. I feel for them. I’m a fan as well.”
Belichick was doing the same thing for Robert Kraft back in 2000, and needed that first season to figure out what they needed to do going forward.
The Raiders are installing, basically, the same offense and defense that the Patriots did back then. Former linebacker Ted Johnson said that took time for them to learn, but also time for Belichick to figure out which players were a fit and which ones weren't.
"It took a while for us to collectively give Bill our trust," Johnson said. "I feel like the team didn't collectively buy in until the second year he was there. It wasn't until weeks 5-8 (in 2001) where it was like started to become apparent to us that Bill really knew what he was doing, that Bill had really good game plans, that Bill scouted the opponent, that Bill's plan was a good one if we executed it. That's where buy in became really, really much stronger. But it took him that long."
With the 2000 season as data, Belichick attacked the holes on his roster with an unprecedented free agency haul that brought in key role players that would help establish a dynasty: cornerback Terrell Buckley, guard Mike Compton, linebacker Bryan Cox, fullback Marc Edwards, quarterback Damon Huard, linebacker Larry Izzo, receiver David Patten, linebacker Roman Phifer, defensive end Anthony Pleasant, running back Antowain Smith, and linebacker Mike Vrabel.
Having scouted the Raiders extensively this season, I could see Ziegler and McDaniels doing similar this offseason.
The first question they have to answer is at quarterback. Derek Carr has played solid football for the most part, but you could make the argument he has cost the team winning plays in each of their seven losses by one score or less. Carr received an extension in the offseason, but the team can get out of it at any time. It would not be a surprise to see the Raiders have some interest in Tom Brady as a bridge to the next franchise QB taken in this year's draft. Wouldn't it be something if Brady started things in the right direction for Belichick and McDaniels — 22 years apart?
The Raiders will also be looking for cost-effective help at guard, tackle and possibly receiver. Defense needs the most work, as the current Raiders were brought in to run Gus Bradley's Cover 3 scheme — and Pat Graham needs much different players. They are severely lacking run stuffers at defensive tackle, a woefully undermanned at linebacker, and need to be better at cornerback and safety.
Like Belichick's offseason of 2001, there is much work to be done for the Raiders this spring, but there should be some optimism.
From the outside looking in, this Raiders season looks like a huge step back ... but only if you believed the Raiders were truly a playoff team last year. Their total DVOA was 21st, and they were 19th on offense, 17th on defense and 21st on special teams. And they had some very good fortune at the end of last season, as laid out by FootballOutsiders.com:
Then came the Omicron variant of COVID. The Raiders beat the Browns with Nick Mullens at quarterback in a Monday afternoon game after a postponement. They beat the Colts when Carson Wentz was cleared to play hours before kickoff after missing that week’s practice. In between, the Raiders defeated the Broncos with Drew Lock at quarterback due to Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion. Finally, the Raiders lulled the Chargers into a game that would be determined by run defense and fourth-down conversion narratives. The poor Chargers didn’t stand a chance under those circumstances and the Raiders became wild-card playoff fodder, in large part by tiptoeing through the COVID surge relatively unscathed.
Most analytics people expected a regression to the mean this season for the Raiders due to their Covid fortune that led to seven wins by one score or less. The Raiders — 25th in total DVOA, 16th offense, 31st defense, 11th special teams — swung back wildly in the other direction with seven losses by one score or less to this point.
Because of that, and if Ziegler and McDaniels can make Patriots-esque free agency additions, expect those same analytics people to predict a bounceback for the Raiders in 2023.
It could be like deja vu all over again.
A closer look at the matchup and our game pick:
OVERALL WEIGHTED DVOA: Raiders 22nd, Patriots 12th
OFFENSE
Raiders DVOA: 12th overall, 19th pass, 5th rush
Patriots D: 4th overall, 4th pass, 10th rush
DEFENSE
Cardinals DVOA: 31st overall, 32nd pass, 18th rush
Patriots off: 25th overall, 24th pass, 24th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA
Patriots 14th, Raiders 11th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
LT Trent Brown vs. DE Chandler Jones: Jones has been a huge disappointment this season. He has shown very few pass rush moves and I expect Brown to win this matchup handily. If Jones makes any plays, the Patriots could be in big trouble.
NT Davon Godchaux vs. C Andre James/LG Dylan Parnham: James is solid and Parnham usually is as well, but he's really struggled of late so Godchaux should be able to control the inside.
DE Matthew Judon vs. RT Thayer Munford/Jermaine Eluemunor: With RG Alex Bars out with a knee injury, I would assume that Eluemunor, the former (not good) Patriot, will slip inside and the rookie will start at RT. Munford has all the tools, but he's still a rookie and will make mistakes.
S Devin McCourty vs. QB Derek Carr: Carr is very talented, but he'll miss a handful of big reads in every game and can be baited into an interception. I expect McCourty to do a lot of disguising and he'll win a few times, and it could tip the game.
TE Hunter Henry vs. Safeties Duron Harmon and Trevor Moehrig: Harmon is the same player he was here — not good enough to start on most teams, but will end up with a few stray passes. Moehrig is a day late and a dollar short on every read, and he doesn't tackle very well. Patriots should be attacking the seam repeatedly with Henry, who has been vastly underutilized this season.
WR Tyquan Thornton vs. CB Sam Webb: Two rookies should go head-to-head in this one, and you would expect a second-round pick to have the advantage over a UDFA, but we'll have to see. Webb is undisciplined and makes a lot of mistakes. If Thornton is to bust out down the field, it will be in this game.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
DE Maxx Crosby vs. RT Conor McDermott (or whomever): If there was a game for the Patriots to move Mike Onwenu from guard to tackle, this would be it. In other games, the Patriots had to worry about DTs impacting the game more. In this one, the edge is the primary concern. Crosby will be a mismatch against anyone. He is long, quick, agile and relentless. He's one of the five best defensive players in the NFL.
WR Davante Adams vs. CB Jack Jones: Adams is one of the most dynamic receivers in the game with absurd body control, length and quickness after the catch. His route running runs hot and cold, which can lead to Carr holding the ball.
RB Josh Jacobs vs. LB Ja'Whaun Bentley: Jacobs is one of, if not the, best all-around running backs in football. They often line him up with FB Jakob Johnson and let Jacobs go to work. His vision and cutback ability are second-to-none. Bentley will have to read his keys perfectly to help stop Jacobs.
LT Kolten Miller vs. DE Josh Uche: Uche's starring run against backups and old men is about to come to an end as Miller, while unspectacular, is a rock-solid LT. If Uche is highly impactful in this game, then the Patriots have something there. Great test.
CB Nate Hobbs vs. WR Nelson Agholor: Hobbs is by far the best Raiders' player in the secondary as he's tough, physical and instinctive. He lines up on the left side of the defense, so you have to be wary of throwing late out there.
TE Darren Waller vs. S Kyle Dugger: Waller has barely played this season due to injury but he could return in this game. He's extremely athletic and a tough matchup so he must be accounted for.
(Getty Images)
Chandler Jones, Maxx Crosby
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Slow the game to a crawl: McDaniels doesn't want to expose his defense in most games. The Patriots don't want to expose their offense. Due to the opponent in this one, both teams will be freed up to do the opposite in this game. I would expect the Raiders, for once, to want to make this game fast. The Patriots need to keep this game slow and close and just get to the fourth quarter, where the Raiders have crumbled repeatedly this season.
2. Have a good plan for Crosby: If the Patriots can scheme up a way to take care of Crosby on every snap (I'm not holding my breath), then the offense should be freed up to do whatever they want against a very limited Raiders defense. This is the whole game for the Patriots' offense. You can't have Henry blocking Crosby, which happened last week on the interception.
3. Front seven must take care of Jacobs: With Adams out there (with or without Waller and Hunter Renfrow, who could return), the Patriots are going to have to play a lot of two-deep safety coverage. That means they can't stack the run. So this is on everyone up front to do their job and limit Jacobs both in the run and pass (he's dangerous there as well).
4. Open it up on offense: If you block Crosby, the Raiders can't cover on defense and there should be some big plays down the field. It's time to open things up on offense. If the Patriots can't score against this defense at this point, they might as well pack it up and start the offseason plans.
5. Watch the trick plays, Adams: The Raiders have used some sort of flea flicker or HB option pass over the past month for big plays. McDaniels will dial one up at some point. Shut that down, and stay over the top of Adams at all times, and the Raiders will have to be very consistent to score a lot of points (they usually aren't).
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Raiders -1.5. O/U: 44
Bedard's record: 11-2 straight up, 10-3 vs. spread
The Patriots will not have RB Damien Harris, CB Jalen Mills, WR DeVante Parker and OT Isaiah Wynn. Questionable: T Yodny Cajuste, LS Joe Cardona, CB Jack Jones, WR Jakobi Meyers, RB Rhamondre Stevenson. DT Chrisitan Barmore could return as he started to practice again this week.
Raiders will not have RG Alex Bars and CB Rock Ya-Sin.
To me, this game is all about tempo. If the Raiders are OK playing this game at a slow pace, then I think the Patriots' defense wins more often by the end of the game. If McDaniels decides to go fast and try to jump on the Patriots early, I think the Patriots are in trouble and in danger of getting blown out.
The Raiders are very tough to trust this season as they've been wildly inconsistent down-to-down. But they've had 10 days to get rest up and get ready for this game, and McDaniels is really good at gameplanning and knowing how to beat an opponent (it's why they've been up against just about everyone). But they're limited in terms of talent and make the type of mistakes that blow leads. I just don't think the Patriots have the type of offense that can come back if the Raiders grab an early lead, and I think the Vegas players and coaches really want to win this one against Belichick and the Patriots. They might be more focused than ever.
I just don't like this matchup for the Patriots.
Bedard's Pick: Raiders 30, Patriots 20.