Make no mistake, the Patriots lost to the Vikings on Thursday night because they failed in all three phases of the game — especially on defense (which we've largely covered).
But you shouldn't just let the offense off the hook because, finally, in the 11th game of the season, they found a way to give Mac Jones a semblance of pass protection and made a few passing plays down the field — especially when it was against the 18th total defense in DVOA and 19th against the pass. The Vikings are better than the Browns and Lions, but they are decidedly average on defense.
Yes, for nearly three full quarters the Patriots' offense looked like a good NFL offense. After Jones and DeVante Parker hooked up their 40-yard blockbuster of a pass play, all seemed right in the world. The Patriots were on the verge of eclipsing 30 points for the first time against a team not named the Browns without two of their best players. To that point, they had 23 points, and averaged 8.9 yards per play and 11.6 per pass attempt.
But starting on the very next play through the end of the game, the Patriots imploded into a complete mess:
Given the collective nature of the issues and lack of execution, the root of the failures seemed largely due to poor coaching and playcalling.
Basically, when the game was in the balance and the stress level was increased, the Patriots fell apart, from the coaches to the players.
They say pressure makes diamonds. Yeah, well, pressure can also burst pipes when they have a flaw. The Patriots' offense failed this stress test in Minnesota, because they have fundamental flaws — and three quarters of efficient football against a mediocre outfit can't and shouldn't paper over that fact.
Let's take a deep dive into each play with an analysis of the coaches film, and then get into unit ratings, player grades and 5 up/5 down:
1-7-MIN 7 (7:33) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left.
2-7-MIN 7 (7:29) (Shotgun) R.Stevenson right end to MIN 6 for 1 yard (C.Bynum, H.Smith).
3-6-MIN 6 (6:50) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to H.Henry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED.
(Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short left to H.Henry (C.Sullivan).
We've already been over this sequence in detail.
The first play was a complete waste as no one knew what play was being run, and it ended up with two receivers and Jones had no choice but to chuck the ball into the seats. This simply can't happen in the red zone at this juncture of the game. (Coaching)
The second down run was disaster in terms of execution but also the playcall. I think Matt Patricia must have run out of running back flat passes by this point. (Coaching)
The final play ... looked like a catch to me but the throw from Jones could have been better (he was likely leery of a the outside corner jumping the flat, but still) and/or Henry needs to complete the catch so there's no doubt. (Player execution)
Either way, three plays and two of them didn't have a chance. This team ain't good enough for that ratio.
1-10-NE 25 (14:07) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to R.Stevenson to NE 26 for 1 yard (C.Sullivan, J.Hicks).
Guess he wasn't out of RB flat throws. This very rudimentary RPO is designed to go to Stevenson if Jones gets a certain look from the corners. He got it, and the Vikings were better. This is bad play vs. a zone defense. (Coaching)
2-9-NE 26 (13:31) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle to N.Agholor (E.Kendricks).
Don't love Jones' decision here as Parker and Henry are better options, but I also think Agholor failed to run the right route because he stops right in front of the MLB. Normally the receiver would run to the void. Just all around bad. (Coaching with poor execution.)
3-9-NE 26 (13:27) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to J.Meyers (C.Bynum).
Jones makes the right call to run away from Harrison Smith and then makes a great throw under pressure. Sorry, but a top NFL receiver comes down with this pass. Meyers knew it judging by his reaction. (Execution)
1-10-NE 25 (9:34) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to N.Agholor to NE 26 for 1 yard (D.Shelley).
This is the third set of downs since the big Parker catch and they now have run 7 plays for 3 yards. This is another RPO called play that the Patriots don't have enough talent or executing to pull off. Just dreadful. (Coaching)
2-9-NE 26 (9:01) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to R.Stevenson to NE 34 for 8 yards (J.Hicks).
Another quick drop from Jones that doesn't exactly marry up with the play. But the Patriots get 8 yards. Feels like 80 at this point.
3-1-NE 34 (8:20) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to H.Henry.
This should have been flag because Smith engages the upper body to go along with the tangled feet. Thought Jones made a great play throwing Henry open against pressure. However, there is still a bad element to this play — what the hell is Tyquan Thornton doing in the same vicinity as Henry? That should not happen. He's very likely running the wrong route. (Coaching)
1-10-NE 13 (4:21) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to K.Bourne to NE 27 for 14 yards (H.Smith).
Hey, what do you know, an in-breaking route that didn't involve a back or RPO to start a drive. (Golf clap)
1-10-NE 27 (3:52) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete short middle.
But this offense can have nice things. On the very next play, Jones wants to throw quickly on a one-step route, but neither Parker or Agholor is in sync to Jones just turfs it. My guess is Parker was run a 1-yard hitch and didn't do it. Sigh. (Coaching)
2-10-NE 27 (3:48) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to R.Stevenson pushed ob at MIN 33 for 40 yards (H.Smith).
This excellent screen accounts for almost half the Patriots' yards in the 4th quarter. Well-done all.
1-10-MIN 33 (3:38) (Shotgun) R.Stevenson left end to MIN 30 for 3 yards (D.Shelley; E.Kendricks).
Patricia calls about the fifth gun-run with a pulling guard in this game and almost all of them were terrible. This one fails because Mike Onwenu doesn't move all that well and failed to kick out the end. It's a shame, too, because the rest of the blocking was set up for a nice gain. But thinking Onwenu is going to execute this, and Stevenson is going to hit after just running for 40 and playing just about every snap, is a bit foolish (Coaching).
2-7-MIN 30 (3:02) M.Jones pass short middle to R.Stevenson to MIN 30 for no gain (E.Kendricks).
Another quick drop for Jones and no one is readily open. The way Jones looks for Jonnu Smith indicates the tight end is supposed to do a bit more here. Either he ran the wrong route, or he just failed to defeat the coverage. Plus, Onwenu gives up quick pressure. Added bonus ... now you go under center and don't use playaction? (Execution).
3-7-MIN 30 (2:15) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at MIN 39 for -9 yards (D.Hunter).
Yes, Brown should not have been cutting here — it looked like he was late out of his stance and only did it as a last-ditch effort — but Jones has to hit Parker on the hitch here. It's there. Stand in there and deliver. (Execution)
4-16-MIN 39 (2:00) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass incomplete deep right to N.Agholor. NE-N.Agholor was injured during the play.
The protection is terrible as Jones has three guys coming at him, but he gives Agholor a chance to make a play ... if he doesn't stop running. You see way too much of that with him on film. (Execution)
Our final scorecard from just an abomination of offensive football over the final quarter of the game (we didn't bother with the final fruitless drive):
Coaching failures: 7.5
Execution failures: 5.5
You aren't going to win games against good teams, especially on the road, with that many collective failures.
The Patriots' offense failed their stress test.
Here are the positional ratings against the Vikings:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Jones played a good game, but it wasn't perfect. Put 1.5 of the three sacks on him, and he had five questionable decisions. The good news: he had 8 plus throws, only 1 minus throw and didn't come close to turning it over.
See what happens when you keep him clean for a while, even though the pressure was there in the end (40 percent)?
If you still think Jones is the problem on this offense, I don't what to tell you. And the Patriots had zero running game in this one and probably didn't run it enough.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Nothing spectacular outside the screen pass, which was offset by Stevenson dropping a huge third-down screen pass that looked promising.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Thought DeVante Parker was terrific in this game and very impactful. If he's past this knee thing, they need to feature him more (like having him in Kendrick Bourne's spot on that fade before halftime. ... Everyone else had issues, including Henry with his blocking and decision not to go out of bounds. Still, get him many more touches. ... Jonnu Smith was a detriment in this game. He basically tackled Stevenson on a possible huge run. ... Agholor with his route running and effort at times is infuriating to watch on film. Sometimes you question how much he wants it. Other times he's great.
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Was it better than the previous outings? Sure. But considering the step down in competition and the fact that the Patriots still couldn't run the ball and they did allow a good amount of pressure, especially later in the game (heavy legs from the short week?), this was not a rousing success. ... Cole Strange struggled again, although he did have a couple of pancakes, so that was nice to see. ... Yodny Cajuste was decent, but he still not good enough at RT.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
The boys up front largely did a good job, especially against the run, but a 26.8 pressure percentage is not good enough against a good team. ... Have to tip your cap to Kevin O'Connell, he really spun the dial with different techniques to keep the pass rushers guessing, and he stuck with the run even if it wasn't successful (unlike the Patriots ... who eventually starting giving up pressure later in the game). O'Connell threw a lot of different pitches at Judon and while he still got his, There was barely any pressure from any place else. ... One thing I'm worried off of this game because smart teams will study it: the Vikings largely snuffed out the Patriots' stunt/twist game that they get most of their pressure from. If that continues against these offenses down the stretch, it could be another soft close to the season for the defense.
Linebackers (1.5 out of 5)
A week after having their best game in years, this was exposed again in pass coverage. It's still a huge concern. They did shoot a few gaps in the run game that were mostly due to poor execution in the run game, but Raekwon McMillan's speed was apparent and exciting going forward.
Secondary (0 out of 5)
Outside of Jonathan Jones' two pass breakups and his interception, and a few impactful plays from Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips, this entire unit was awful. We've already been over the big miscues on touchdowns, but three huge penalties alone was inexcusable. This group is better than that. Jonathan Jones tooketh and gaveth away in this game. And Dugger's coverage issues were exposed again. Way too many big plays from all of them — Devin McCourty, Myles Bryant and Jalen Mills.
FIVE UP
Matthew Judon: Had some miscues of his own via freelancing at times, but he had 8 impactful plays. Next-closest was 4.
DeVante Parker: Big time game in a big spot. They need to feature him more.
Lawrence Guy: Bulldog inside against the run.
Davon Godchaux: Figured he would own this matchup and he did. Even brought some pass rush too.
Daniel Ekuale: Didn't play much but had an impact when he did, including forcing the Cousins INT.
FIVE DOWN
Jonnu Smith: Didn't play much and when he did, he wasn't helping the cause.
Yodny Cajuste: Allowed the most pressure (4.5) on the team.
Devin McCourty: For the first time, I saw an opponent targeting McCourty's diminished speed, although it's still pretty good. Justin Jefferson is just absurd.
Pierre Strong: Punt penalty just can't happen.
Cole Strange: Improved play against lesser competition but still allowed 4 QB pressures.