For the time being, the Red Sox' chief offseason energies seem to be focused on Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. That's understandable, given the urgency of which both need some contractual clarification. Bogaerts will soon opt out of his contract and become a free agent while Devers is a mere season away from free agency.
But eventually, the Red Sox are going to turn their attention to improving the roster for 2023, and after addressing the left side of the infield, they need to look next at the starting rotation.
Take a look at the final four teams in Major League Baseball's postseason and some of the starring pitchers who started in October: Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Now ask yourself: who on the current Red Sox roster would fit in with the above group?
Chris Sale? Once, but it's been a few years now, and while the Red Sox owe him another $55 million, there's no guarantee he will again pitch at that level.
Brayan Bello? Perhaps one day, but not yet. Bello is a terrific building block for the future and will likely be the best homegrown starter in the system since Clay Buchholz. But he's pitched exactly 10 times in the big leagues.
The Red Sox could end up bringing back some combination of Nate Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and James Paxton and give themselves a competent, acceptable major-league rotation. But is there a dominant Game 1-caliber starter among that group? No.
Which is why the Red Sox have to go out and trade for one of those starters this winter.
The upcoming free agent class has some elite starters, including Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon. But Verlander is 40 and is only a year -- albeit a fantastic one -- removed from Tommy John surgery. deGrom missed more than half of last season with shoulder issues. Rodon has pitched more than 165 innings in a season just once -- this past season, at age 29.
All three could be terrific signings, but each comes with a degree of medical risk. All three will pitch at 30-plus next year.
A better idea would be to pursue a pitcher with some remaining control, then aggressively extend the pitcher once he's acquired. In other words, do precisely what Seattle did at last season's deadline when it obtained Luis Castillo from Cincinnati before securing him to a five-year, $108 million extension.
The Sox need to identify a pitcher with some success at the big league level -- someone, say, 25-28 -- and pursue a trade. Ideally, this pitcher would be a bridge between Sale -- the veteran who's likely already pitched his best baseball -- and Bello.
The cost will be considerable and will eat into some of the progress the organization has had in restocking the system. But the value of prospects can be two-fold: they can replenish a roster with low-cost salaries, or they can fetch more established players in trades.
Because the Red Sox have, in recent years, had difficulty developing those kinds of pitchers, they have to pay the asking price to acquire one for themselves. But obtaining Castillo effectively clinched a playoff spot for the Mariners and got them to the Division Series after a thrilling wild-card win. And now, the Mariners are positioned to be pennant contenders for years to come, in part because their rotation boasts both established pitchers like Castillo and Robbie Ray (a free agent signing last winter) along with younger potential aces like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. The latter two were drafted in successive first rounds (2018 and 2019).
The ask in return will be staggering. The Red Sox have to go into the process with no untouchables other than Triston Casas and Bello. If it costs them former first-rounder Marcelo Mayer or five-tool phenomenon Miguel Bleis -- among others -- then that's the cost of doing business. It may make Chaim Bloom to blow up the system he's been constructing, but beyond Bello and possibly Bryan Mata, there are no internal front-line starters on the near horizon.
And risky as it may be to give up a boatload of prospects, it's less risky than lavishing north of $35-$40 million per season on the likes of deGrom or Verlander.
Here are some potential targets, with no guarantee that they're going to be available. But the Red Sox will never know unless they ask.
The Candidates:
RHP Shane Beiber, Cleveland. Might as well start at the top. The cost for Beiber would be astronomical -- and understandably so. In four full major league seasons, he's won a Cy Young Award, finished fourth another time, has twice pitched 200 or more innings and has a 2.91 ERA. Why would the Indians even consider a trade? Money. When they extended Jose Ramirez last year, you could almost hear the team budget bursting at the seams. Can they afford the $150 million plus it's going to take to extend Beiber in another two years? The Indians have been remarkable in developing their own pitching, in part because they've been forced to when their own homegrown arms become established and expensive (Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger).
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay. The fact that the Rays would be trading Glasnow within their own division isn't much of an obstacle here. Of all franchises, the Rays would trade with anyone if they thought they could improve by even the smallest bit. A bigger issue might be that the Rays have already locked up Glasnow for the next two years at a total of $30.35 million, a unique deal that came on the heels of Glasnow successfully recovering from Tommy John surgery. So the Rays have already done the tough part: endured the missed season and paid out for the next two. But you're telling me you couldn't convince them to save another $30 million while further re-stocking their farm system?
LHP Tarik Skubal, Detroit. The Tigers don't fit the profile of the other teams on this list. They're not small market and they've demonstrated an appetite to spend when necessary (Miguel Cabrera, and to a far lesser extent, Eduardo Rodriguez). But the Tigers have also been spinning their wheels for a while now. It's been eight seasons since the Tigers last qualified for the postseason and the August firing of Al Avila signals an organization intent on starting over again. The Tigers still have other top pitching prospects on the roster, including former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize. One significant caveat here: Skubal underwent flexor tendon surgery last summer and will miss a significant chunk of 2023 rehabbing. But after next season, Skubal will still have three years of control remaining. And the physical uncertainty and risk involved here could lessen the asking price.
RHP Pablo Lopez, LHP Jesus Luzardo, Miami. It seems almost a given that Lopez will be moved, as the Marlins desperately need some offensive help. Lopez might properly be compared to Castillo, and has two years of control remaining, having pitched to a 3.52 ERA over the previous four seasons. Luzardo, acquired from Oakland, has the additional attraction of being lefthanded. He's also just 25 and has four years of control remaining. The downside? After being one of the game's top pitching prospects, Luzardo has struggled to stay healthy and last year was his first quality season at the big league level. Of the two, Lopez might more closely fit the profile of what the Sox are looking for, while Luzardo might have a higher ceiling.
RHP Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee. Just as the Marlins probably couldn't be convinced to give up No. 1 Sandy Alcantara, the guess is much the same with Milwaukee and Corbin Burnes. But even as they've shown the willingness to pay to retain some stars (Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich), they're only able to go so far. If they choose to try to extend Burnes, then Woodruff becomes more expandable. He's been both durable (92 starts over the last four years) and dominant (3.02 ERA).
RHP Zack Gallen, Arizona. If Beiber is the most expensive young pitcher on this list, then Gallen is right behind. As a matter of fact, I've heard that the Diamondbacks wouldn't even consider moving him. Gallen enjoyed a breakout season in 2022 (12-4, 2.54 in a career-high 184 innings) and has a 3.03 ERA over parts of four seasons. It might appear that Gallen is untouchable until you consider that at 27, he's been part of three organizations and has already been traded twice in his career. The Red Sox -- and anyone else interested -- would have to back up the prospect truck and be ready to unload it.