It was nice to be able to just sit back and watch a lot of football on Sunday, and sort of catch up with teams I have yet to see yet. Here are five thoughts on what we saw, including our AFC rankings, but we'll start with the Jets, who the Patriots will see two times in the next month.
1. Do the Patriots have another run in them, and one that could actually, as opposed to the last three seasons, have some staying power into January? We'll get our first in a series of answers with the Jets games — which, with the bye, will happen in the span of three games. A sweep sends the Patriots on their way. A sweep the other way ends the season early. A split keeps things interesting.
Jets are a big surprise at 5-2 after winning at Denver on Sunday. They are similar to the Patriots in DVOA — 12th overall, 21st in offense and 10th in defense. They just lost stud rookie RB Breece Hall to an ACL injury (and best lineman, Alijah Vera-Tucker). QB Zach Wilson missed the first three games and has completed just 57 percent of his passes since returning.
Just to show how I believe context matters in respects, it has to be pointed out that these are the QBs the Jets have beaten: Jacoby Brissett, Mitch Trubisky, Skylar Thompson, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Rypien.
(Of course, the Patriots' slate: Trubisky, Jared Goff, Brissett and, likely, Justin Fields tonight.)
Basically, neither the Jets nor the Patriots' defense has proven anything yet. I'm sure the Jets would crow about allowing 10 points to Rodgers at Lambeau while the Patriots allowed 24 in regulation. I think we know by now that the Packers' offense is just not good and we should move along.
2. After Sunday, here are the AFC playoff standings, and we'll give you our rankings:
THE ELITE
1. Buffalo (5-1)
2. Chiefs (5-2)
These two teams are in another league compared to everyone else. You would have to play a perfect game to beat either one of them.
TALENTED TEAM BUT WHAT THE HELL
3. Ravens (4-3)
The big question is whether this team and John Harbaugh can get out of their own way. They might just be a chokey team and will limit their ceiling. They're 4th in DVOA. You could make the case that coaching is holding this team back.
SOMEONE HAS TO WITH THE AFC SOUTH
4. Titans (4-2)
11. Colts (3-3-1)
They'd be close to a 5 or 6 in this rating if someone didn't have to be the division winner. Mike Vrabel continues to prove that he's one of the best coaches in the league as he does more with less. Very similar to Belichick.
Not only does Indy have protection/QB issues (Matt Ryan was just benched for Sam Ehlinger), but wait until people realize that Gus Bradley and his played-out Seattle Cover 3 scheme is the defensive coordinator.
STARTING TO PUT IT TOGETHER
5. Bengals (4-3)
Looks like they've improved in pass protection and the defense is solid. 6th in DVOA.
WHO'S GOING TO FINISH SECOND IN AFC EAST?
6. Dolphins (4-3)
7. Jets (5-2)
8. Patriots (3-3)
Right now, you have to give the edge to the Dolphins. The Jets beat Miami's third-string QB. Miami easily beat the Patriots when both teams were healthy, but you can't put much stock in Week 1.
Another reason to give the Dolphins a slight edge right now ... Past/future schedule ranks (Patriots are a bit skewed because they haven't played Bears yet):
Dolphins — 2nd past; 22nd future
Jets — 8th past; 1st future
Patriots — 24th past; 3rd future (after tonight their past will be higher and future will be lower)
After this week, I'd have it: Dolphins, Patriots and Jets. But the race for 2nd in this division will be a dogfight. I'm not a believer in the Jets yet. Like the Patriots, they haven't beaten anyone good.
COULD GO ON A RUN
9. Chargers (4-3)
10. Raiders (2-4)
The Chargers continue to be a very talented team but are poorly coached. It's possible Justin Herbert, if he survives, can just get hot and carry the team.
Raiders have lost all 4 of their games by six points or less as Josh McDaniels tries to install his system. They're starting to cook on offense (33 points per game over the last three games), but the defense is a big issue outside of Maxx Crosby. Next four games: at Saints, at Jaguars, Colts, at Broncos. Could get them to 6-4 heading into a tough close. They're very similar to the Patriots, who they will host on Dec. 18. That could be a huge AFC playoff matchup.
3. Aaron Rodgers is in more trouble than Tom Brady, but don't bury either.
It was a horror show Sunday for both future Hall of Famers as the Packers lost 23-21 to the Commanders, and Bucs were blasted 21-3 by the Panthers. Wouldn't dance on anyone's grave yet because both are in bad divisions that will keep them afloat.
Tampa is going through a lot of injury issues right now but there's hope — and Brady's history — to indicate they will figure it out at some point.
It's tougher to see a path where the Packers get right, and their defense has been one of the biggest underachievers this season. That defense was supposed to win them games until the offense got right.
4. Two of the biggest issues around the league: lack of QB protection, stupid fourth-down calls.
Whether it's the Bucs, Jaguars, Colts, Titans, Packers, Broncos, Chargers, 49ers — they are all being held back from what they can be do to leaky offensive lines. There is way too much emphasis on skill position players when that really doesn't matter if your QB doesn't have enough time to find them. Invest in your offensive line, and definitely overdo it.
How many dumb fourth-down calls can you get? Mike McDaniel almost blew the Sunday Night game when he passed up a FG to go up nine points.
The Jaguars led 17-13 and turned their nose up at a 7-point lead with 11:30 left by going for 4th and 1 from the Giants' 20-yard line. Giants scored on the next possession. Just take the points when you're in an obvious rock fight, or want to make it one.
5. As to what's going on with the Patriots and the quarterback position — I have no insight on this, it's been very strange how quiet things are.
What I believe to be true: Mac Jones is the entrenched starter, Bailey Zappe is the distant backup — the rest is about Jones' health. We don't know how Jones looked in practice when he had to run plays. I'm guessing they pushed it and possibly want to see how he has bounced back on the field before the game, which could be slick with the rain.
This is really early for Jones to be coming back from this injury, and Belichick has to worry about Jones possibly having a setback if he plays. It's a tough call for Belichick. If this was the Jets, I think you risk Jones. Against the Bears? I don't know if you do that. This is why they pay Belichick the big bucks.