Three of the four division series got decided over the weekend, and as usual, there were some surprises.
Upsets ruled the weekend. The Padres (89 wins) toppled the Dodgers (111 victories) and the Phillies (87 wins) knocked off the defending world-champion Atlanta Braves (101 wins). Even the series that resulted in a three-game sweep (Astros over the Mariners) included two one-run contests in which the winning run was scored in Houston's final at-bat.
Some trends emerged, too, and a few of them should concern the Red Sox.
Let's take a look:
1) Dominant starting pitching still matters
Both the ALDS and NLDS featured great individual performances from top starters. In Game 3 of the Houston-Seattle series, an epic 18-inning affair, both starters went deep (well, deep if measured by the more traditional nine-inning length), with George Kirby tossing seven shutout innings for the Mariners, nearly matched from six scoreless frames from Lance McCullers Jr.
In the L.A.-San Diego series, Blake Snell gave the Padres 5.1 innings of one-run ball in Game 3, while in Game 4, both starters -- Tyler Anderson for the Dodgers and Joe Musgrove for the Padres -- were elite, combining to go 11 innings while allowing two runs.
Gerrit Cole, meanwhile, the game's highest-paid starter, has allowed three earned runs in 13.1 innings, including seven strong innings Sunday night when the Yankees were in win-or-go-home mode.
Why this should matter to the Red Sox: During the regular season, Red Sox starters ranked 22 out of 30 MLB teams in ERA at 4.49.
Take a look at who the Red Sox have under control for next year for their rotation: Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello. End of list, unless you're expecting either Tanner Houck or Garrett Whitlock to be shifted to the rotation next season. Do any of those starters strike you as capable of going seven innings and allowing two runs in a postseason matchup? Sale did once, in his prime, but he's pitched so little the last three years it's impossible to think of him in those terms. Bello? Perhaps in time, but not yet.
All of which is more evidence that the Sox need to either sign a top starter in free agency, or deal for one -- the way the Mariners did with Luis Castillo last August.
2) Swing-and-miss is essential for the back end of the bullpen.
In the 18-inning marathon between the Astros and Mariners Saturday, the two bullpens combined to strike out 30 while walking just two. Reliever after reliever entered with fastballs clocked in the high 90s -- and above.
Cleveland has closer Emmanuel Classe, who regularly hits triple digits on the radar gun. The Padres have closer Josh Hader, who is routinely at 98-99 mph with his fastball and Robert Suarez, who had 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings during the regular season.
Get it? Most playoff teams have hard-throwing relievers who can come in and overpower the toughest parts of an opposing lineup while keeping walks to a bare minimum. The more bullpen arms who can keep the ball from being put in play, the better,
Why this should concern the Red Sox: It probably isn't necessary to highlight the Red Sox' failings in their bullpen, but for the purpose of this exercise, let's do it anyway.
The bullpen was 26th out of 30 in ERA (4.59) and had 28 blown saves.
Worse, the Red Sox didn't succeed in missing a lot of bats. According to STATCAST, in percentile ranking when it comes to strikeout rates, the highest Red Sox pitcher was John Schreiber, ranked 57th, for the 84 percentile. Next on the roster was Whitlock, ranked 101st, in the 72nd percentile.
A core of Schreiber, Whitlock and Houck might be a good back-end trio for 2023, but the three aren't likely to generate the amount of swing-and-miss that we're seeing from among the best teams this October.
3) Homers win post-season games.
Going into the weekend, dating back to 2016, teams that outhomer their opponents are 164-30. If you can hit the ball out of the ballpark, or at least do so better or more frequently than your opponent, you're likely to win.
That's especially true in the playoffs, when it becomes even more difficult to string together rallies. It's far easier to hit the ball out of the park than it is to produce, say, three or four hits in the same inning. The pitching is just too good.
An exception has been the Cleveland Indians, who don't have a lot of home run power beyond Jose Ramirez. But the Indians help make up for that deficiency in their attack by being extremely good at putting the ball in play, and with elite baserunning.
Why this should concern the Red Sox: If you watched them in 2022, you already know: the Red Sox had a power outage.
They finished with just 155, 20th among all MLB teams. Rafael Devers led them in homers with just 27; no one else on the roster ever reached the 20-homer plateau.
Sure, there were some extenuating circumstances. Devers almost certainly would have been good for more than 30 had he not been hampered by a hamstring strain in August. Trevor Story likely would have had 25 or more had he not had two stretches with injuries (hand/finger; heel). Xander Bogaerts was limited in the middle of the season with a shoulder injury.
But how much improvement will they see in home run output next year? Bogaerts is certain to opt out and can't be counted on to return, even as many expect the Sox will do what it takes to extend him.
Triston Casas has good raw power, but has just a month of major-league experience. Alex Verdugo has never hit more than 13 in a single season in the big leagues.
Clearly, the Sox could use an upgrade in the power department -- if not several.