Breaking down the biggest plays in the Patriots' 20-7 loss to the Dolphins — and some that set up those plays — using analysis of the coaches' film. The plays:
- The interception on the opening drive from Mac Jones intended for Devante Parker.
- The strip-sack of Jones, and the incompletion to Jonnu Smith on the previous play;
- The 42-yard touchdown by Jaylen Waddle on 4th down in which two Patriots defenders had problems that led to a huge, avoidable score before halftime.
1-10-MIA 22 (10:05) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass deep right intended for D.Parker INTERCEPTED by J.Holland (X.Howard) at MIA -3. J.Holland to MIA 28 for 31 yards (I.Wynn).
A big theme in these two offensive plays — and likely the offensive approach by Matt Patricia overall when it comes to our overall breakdown of the offense — will be the lack of imagination in personnel and formations, and also poor decisions when it comes to targeting matchups.
On this play — and many others — the Patriots are in 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends). The Dolphins answer with their base personnel, which will leave one of the Patriots' $12.5 million tight ends on a safety (Brandon Jones), and the other on a linebacker (Jerome Baker). Whether it's by size (Hunter Henry) or athletic ability (Jonnu Smith), the Patriots should have at least one mismatch in this scenario, especially considering what they are paying their tight ends.
On this play, the Dolphins are clearly in man coverage, and Henry draws Jones and Smith has Baker. Both are good matchups for the Patriots. You also have Elandon Roberts on Damien Harris, another matchup advantage for New England. Jones and the Patriots target Parker against old friend and top corner Xavien Howard, who routinely owned Parker in practices as Dolphins teammates.
Don't love how the Patriots are in a balanced 2x2 formation. It's vanilla and predictable. The spacing isn't great, and it's harder to exploit a good matchup.
In any event, on the play, Jones' throw was pretty good. Could it have been better? I guess to the boundary would give Parker an advantage, but I think the plan was to go backshoulder but Howard played it like the pro that he is and thwarted that. I think Jones just decided to throw a jump ball at this point, and he gave his receiver a chance. Parker just got outmuscled, which was a theme in the Raiders' joint practices. It's an issue for him.
But on this play, the Patriots should have sought out the best matchup, and that was Smith against Baker. Smith is clearly open, and with two vertical routes down the left sideline, Smith could catch the ball and be a broken tackle away from a big play, possibly a touchdown.
Didn't like much on this play from start to finish.
1-10-NE 15 (7:45) M.Jones pass incomplete deep left to J.Smith.
2-10-NE 15 (7:40) (Shotgun) M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (Br.Jones). FUMBLES (Br.Jones) [Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-M.Ingram at NE 2. M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
So we started with the first and 10 play because, again, it was almost the same concept as the Parker INT. Again, 12 personnel against base. The Dolphins are in man coverage again. This time, Henry has the linebacker, and Smith has the safety. Again, it's a 2x2 formation.
This seems to be a designed shot play to Smith due to the tackles cutting the ends (Trent Brown whiffed) for a quick pass. Didn't love Smith's route. Jones' pass could have been better, but Smith faded his route late against a cornerback who is in phase (good coverage). The big issue for me on this play starts with asking a simple question that should come on every pass play: "Who has the best matchup?" To me, it's clearly Henry against Baker or Harris against Roberts.
And, again, if Jones goes to Henry (who runs a sloppy route) against man coverage, you're a broken tackle away from a big play. That's a good play. Instead, the Patriots are in 2nd and 10.
On the strip sack, Jones identifies Baker as the Mike. That means the line is responsible for him if he blitzes, and the other linebacker is the free rusher if he comes. It also means the line slides toward the Mike LB, which you see at the snap. David Andrews immediately goes left, picking up the DT. Cole Strange — a rookie, mind you — goes left, picking up Melvin Ingram. That leaves Brown to pick up the first outside rusher. Brown does not do that, he blocks Ingram, and appears to clearly be responsible for the sack. The Dolphins ran this same pressure twice later, and Brown picked up the outside rusher.
Another avoidable mistake that could have been helped by better on the previous play.
3-19-MIA 46 (:31) (Shotgun) T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to C.Wilson to NE 42 for 12 yards (A.Phillips). NE-A.Phillips was injured during the play.
4-7-NE 42 (:24) (Shotgun) T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Showed you the previous play, to highlight Adrian Phillips' injury, which may or may not have affected the next play. Jabrill Peppers entered and played a role that Phillips usually plays.
The Patriots elect to play man coverage on this play instead of zone. Not necessarily a bad call, but perhaps a two-deep, five-under zone would have been better to avoid a disastrous play in this area of the field.
In any event, the Patriots appear to be in 1-funnel, which is Cover 1 (deep safety), with everyone but Ja'Whaun Bentley and Kyle Dugger playing man coverage. The coverage plays know they have help in the middle of the field, and they will attempt to funnel the player to that area knowing that help is there.
Two big issues on this play. Bentley appears to be out of position and is not in the middle of the field. If he (or possibly a better coverage player) is in the right spot, he should be reading the QB and looking for in-breaking routes to help on, like the one Jaylen Waddle runs. Jalen Mills does his job. He knows he has two defenders to help in the middle of the field. If Philips is in the game, is Peppers in the game instead of Bentley? Quite possibly.
The second mistake is obvious: Dugger, despite recognizing the route and being in the right position initially, takes a false step and that's the difference between a first down and a touchdown when you are talking about an explosive athlete like Waddle. One false move and he's gone.
Another completely avoidable mistake by the Patriots, but credit the Dolphins for having the personnel — and exploiting a mismatch — to make a game-changing play like that.