Think of the Red Sox extending Kiké Hernandez as a tentative first step toward constructing the 2023 roster.
Much more is needed, including some finality when it comes to Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers, but getting Hernandez on a one-year deal for $10 million seems like a logical starting point.
Here are three thoughts on the news:
1) Like most short-term deals, this had something for both sides.
Hernandez had a poor first three months this season. He lacked his usual explosiveness, and eventually, we came to understand why: the hip and core issues he dealt with -- dating back to late last season, but made worse over time -- impacted his swing and affected his performance.
Since returning from the IL last month, Hernandez has looked more like the 2021 version of himself -- athletic, versatile, dynamic.
Hernandez knew that he would not be entering the free agent market with a lot of leverage, given his numbers from this season. But there was an opportunity for both sides here. The Red Sox first approached him at the All-Star break -- while he was injured -- to discuss a deal for 2023.
It was in the best interest of the Red Sox to have some certainty for next year in center field. They can now go into the offseason knowing that two of three outfield spots (Alex Verdugo remains under control for two more seasons) are spoken for. And since Hernandez knew that he wasn't likely to get much in the way of multi-year offers on the open market following a sub-par season, he correctly figured a one-year extension here made the most sense for him.
Hernandez enjoys the atmosphere in Boston. Having seen how electric Fenway was in the 2021 postseason, he would like to experience that again. Further, he enjoys playing for Alex Cora, whom he's known since he was a child in Puerto Rico.
2) Bloom promised him a more competitive Red Sox team for 2023.
Hernandez revealed this as part of his Tuesday afternoon press conference, and the fact that it was conveyed -- and then made public -- is somewhat telling.
The message suggests that Bloom understands there's a sense of urgency to his offseason. He wasn't about to sway Hernandez with talk about sustainability, or rave about how deep the farm system has become. Unless Hernandez signs another deal past 2023, he likely will never be teammates with Marcelo Mayer or Nick Yorke or some of the other prized prospects deep in the lower regions of the Red Sox player development system.
No, Bloom told Hernandez they would be better at the major league level next year. That means the Red Sox intend to spend on major league talent -- which was already widely assumed. Nothing spurs outlays of resources on Jersey St. like another last-place finish. Ownership understands that fans won't accept a second straight last-place finish, and the only way for the Red Sox to catch up to the rest of the division is to spend in free agency, or make significant trades.
Is it possible that Bloom (and ownership) have shifted strategy in recent months and now intend to retain both Bogaerts and Devers this winter? An infield of Devers, Bogaerts, Trevor Story and a combination of Triston Casas and Eric Hosmer at first, with Verdugo and Hernandez in the outfield would be a good down payment toward that goal.
There's certainly room in the budget. Even with the retention of Hernandez, the Red Sox have committed less than $103 million in contractual commitments. That leaves plenty of money to address arbitration-eligible players as well as import star players from outside the organization.
3) The signing quietly reveals the Sox aren't counting on Jarren Duran in the near future.
At the start of the year, the consensus was that the Sox would likely allow Hernandez to go to free agency, secure in the knowledge that they would have center field covered for the immediate future by Duran. And indeed, Hernandez's two-month IL stint gave Duran plenty of opportunities to prove he was ready to earn the spot full-time in 2023.
Instead, Duran performed poorly. He showed no consistent offensive approach at the plate. He was tentative on the bases, unwilling to use his speed, easily his best tool. And defensively, Duran showed little improvement, taking the wrong routes to balls and getting poor jumps. In short, there was nothing about the play of Duran which would have convinced them to move on from Hernandez and give him the starting center fielder's spot next year.
That's not to say that Duran is done in the organization. If he has a strong spring training and shows improvement in the first few months at Triple-A next year, he can still salvage a role here going forward, even if it's not as an everyday player.
But there are these two facts: Duran will begin spring training at 26 and a half years old, without having established himself. And, it's now far more likely that if Hernandez leaves after 2023, he'll be replaced in center field in 2024 by Ceddanne Rafaela than by Duran.