We have no idea what's going to happen over the next 20 weeks and 17 games now that the 2022 New England Patriots have, thankfully, finished the preseason and will be moving on to the regular season.
Bill Belichick could well pull off the coaching performance of his Hall of Fame career and lead this team back to the playoffs.
Mac Jones could build off his rookie season and take a leap into the top 10 of NFL quarterbacks.
As unlikely as both of those seem at this point, they could happen. You can't rule it out right now.
But you can say a few things definitively, after the Patriots' dispiriting 23-6 loss to the Raiders to cap a 1-2 preseason (who in New England knew there were such things as dispiriting preseason losses before this season?):
1. The Patriots, at least offensively, had about as bad a five weeks as you can have when it comes to training camp and the preseason. Don't think I've ever covered one, from Miami and Green Bay to New England, that went this poorly. Considering seven of their eight runs in two days this week against the Raiders went for little to no gain — not to mention the screens that went nowhere, the complete lack of a downfield passing game, and constant pressure on Jones — you would not be wrong to say the Patriots made absolutely zero progress offensively in five weeks.
I mean, when your starting offense goes punt, interception, punt and field goal against the Raiders' backups on defense, it's really hard to argue that point.
2. Not only has Mac Jones not improved off his rookie season entering Year 2 — when most young quarterbacks in good environments improve by leaps and bounds — he has regressed. In fact, he has done a complete 180.
Consider this: One year ago this week, the Patriots had joint practices and a preseason finale with the Giants. Cam Newton was out with Covid and Jones went out and won the job with two very good days of practice against Giants head coach Joe Judge, and defensive coordinator Pat Graham.
In those two days, when he got all the reps, Jones was 35 of 40 in 7-on-7 drills (87.5 percent). He was 33 of 48 (68.8 percent) with 2 sacks in 11-on-11s, including 18 of 20 in the final session. In the preseason finale, playing with backups against Giants starters and then backups, Jones was 10 of 14 (71.4%), 11.1 YPA, 4 sacks, 1 TD for a 131.8 rating in a 22-20 win to finish off a 3-0 preseason. Jones looked so good, it led us to advocate that Jones should get the starting job.
This week against the Raiders, again coordinated by Graham who is in his first season in Las Vegas, Jones was 13 of 27 (48.1 percent) in 7-on-7s (Derek Carr was 25 of 27, 92.6%). In 11-on-11s, Jones was 29 of 47 (61.7%) with 7 sacks, 1 INT. And in the preseason finale, working with the entire starting offensive unit against all Raiders backups, Jones was 9 of 13 (69.2%), 5.5 YPA, 2 sacks, 1 INT for a 50.5 rating in a 23-6 loss to finish a 1-2 preseason (Patriots only beat the Panthers' backups).
3. The previous point has nothing to do with Jones. It has everything to do with the leadership around him — Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge — that has led him to this point.
And it's their job to fix this, fast. They got Jones and the offense into this mess with their coaching and scheme decisions — just look at what Josh McDaniels is doing installing his apparently very complicated system with a new team as former Patriots quarterback Jarrett Stidham with backups ripped through the Patriots' starting defense like he was a 10-year veteran — so they need to dig themselves out of it.
A year ago, McDaniels made it more than work with a rookie QB and four brand new targets added in free agency. The Patriots only made two additions — WR DeVante Parker and first-round LG Cole Strange — this year and yet despite the QB being in Year 2 after a season full of snaps, and those four targets back for their second season, the Patriots have completely regressed.
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How is that even possible? The Patriots, for whatever reason, came across the How To Ruin Your Young Franchise QB In 3 Easy Steps book used by so many poorly run teams and decided to do it all in one offseason:
1. Change the coordinator.
2. Change the scheme the players had grown into.
3. Change the offensive line so the protection is worse.
(Bonus chapter: Installing coaches with no experience on the other side of the ball - authored by Andy Reid and Juan Castillo with the Dream Team Eagles in 2011.)
The Patriots have two weeks to get this train back on the tracks or else this season could quickly be derailed. There's already questionable buy-in among key players on offense — Jones, David Andrews, Kendrick Bourne, Trent Brown and Isaiah Wynn. If the Patriots don't come up with a sound plan to move forward, they risk something short of a mutiny (hello 2009 Patriots).
Jones was clearly frustrated and angry against the Raiders as the running game continued to go nowhere with these outside zone runs that haven't worked all summer, and his protection continued to break down to the point Jones looked like he was seeing ghosts. If the Patriots don't find a sound way forward before the season opener against Miami, these players are only going to get more detached. They're not idiots, and they're not robots. They were here last year, when things worked pretty well — sixth in the league in points scored — for a collectively new group.
After five weeks, you don't think they're asking amongst themselves why the heck so many things needed to change when last season went well and they were destined to improve in a second year together? You don't think they're questioning why they're being led by people with little to no experience at their positions, coaches who aren't experts in their newfound fields and can't teach the techniques that will make them better players each and every day — a trademark of the best NFL coaches and essential for getting players to believe in the coaching?
Meanwhile, this week they looked across the sidelines and saw their former offensive coordinator (McDaniels) successfully installing his offense (again) and looking unstoppable thanks to help from their former receivers (Mick Lombardi), offensive line (Carm Bricillo) and quarterbacks (Bo Hardegree) coaches. Yeah, that's not going to lead to more questions on the long ride home or anything.
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There's no question the Patriots have a ton of work to do. You have to have faith at this point that Belichick, with five weeks of data and utter failure on offense to this point, that he's going to reverse course and get back to basics. Possible moves to get better:
1. Belichick becomes offensive coordinator, and possibly QB coach.
2. Patricia focuses solely on the offensive line, which is a mess and lacking any attention to detail.
3. Tossing any outside zone concepts in the trash and going forward with their normal gap and power runs that have actually worked at times this summer.
4. Getting back to basics and plays/concepts the Patriots can actually execute. If that means Jones in the gun and calling his own game to start the season, so be it.
Belichick's going to do that, right? A decade ago, the answer would unequivocally be yes. What we've seen the last few years certainly leaves it an open-ended question, especially after this quote he gave last night.
"We didn’t have a real good night tonight in any phase of the game, that’s obvious,” Belichick said. “Might have left it on the practice field Tuesday and Wednesday. Certainly practiced a lot better than the way we played out there tonight.”
It was Belichick's entire starting offense against all Raiders backups. The Patriots can't be expected to be more productive that that, two days after the last practice? What kind of excuse-making is that from the coach who once said, "We don't make excuses for anything"?
It brings you back to the days after the Bills playoff loss last year when Belichick questioned if it was just one bad game from his team.
"I think we have to take a good long look again, not at just one game, but at all 18," Belichick said. "You could argue that there were elements of last night's game and some other games, but you're right, last night's game was the least competitive game that we played last year. So again, is that what we are, or is that a bad night?"
It's certainly fair to wonder if they face reality anymore in Foxboro.
They better. They can't keep going like this. As this week showed us, they have gone in the wrong direction offensively for five weeks. If they don't start going the other way quickly, they could be embarrassed in Miami.
The Raiders played the Dolphins this preseason and, after seeing the Patriots up close, were fearful of what might await New England.
"That's going to be trouble," one team source said. "That defensive front for (Miami) is a pain in the ass. They're big and physical and they can rush and they can crush the pocket. And they can play good man to man with those corners, so you're like, 'Uh oh.'"
For five weeks, we have seen the Patriots' offense go in the wrong direction on a daily basis led by Belichick, Patricia and Judge, and Jones and his teammates have been hung out to dry. All of New England and the nation got to see that was no fallacy, fake news or hyperbole on Friday night.
The only question is if Belichick is going to stay the course, possibly into an iceberg, or steer his ship in another direction.
For years, no one would question which choice Belichick would make - he would do what was in the best interest of the team.
After some of his decisions in recent years – especially this offseason that led the team to this point — it's fair to wonder if that's still the case.