Let's give the Red Sox the benefit of the doubt and assume they will still be in contention for the postseason in July.
That may sound far-fetched, given their current losing record and their obvious deficiencies. But even at 25-27, the Sox sit just a game and a half back of the third wild card in the American League. What's more, one of the two big reasons for their poor play through the first five weeks -- the under-performing offense -- has been overcome.
For the past month, the Red Sox have been one of the best hitting teams in the game. Even allowing for their ineffectual attack in the first month of the season, the Red Sox lead the league in total bases, batting average and are second in runs scored, slugging percentage and OPS. Which isn't to suggest that the Sox still don't need an upgrade in performance from a number of regulars (Kiké Hernandez, Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec most obviously). But the offensive crisis would appear to have passed.
Which leads us to the one obvious shortcoming: the bullpen. And it's there that the Sox will focus should they remain in the race at the All-Star break.
Alex Cora has repeatedly said he would like someone to claim the role of closer, to provide the bullpen with some structure. To date, that hasn't happened. It's telling that six different Red Sox relievers have one save....and equally revealing that no one has more than two saves. For now, save opportunities seem based on usage, availability and matchups rather than any sort of earned merit.
It was telling that Cora was willing to burn Tanner Houck in the ninth inning Friday night. (Ultimately, he wasn't called upon, since the Red Sox erupted for three more runs in the top of the ninth. But one-inning saves do not represent the best use of Houck; he's far more valuable contributing multiple innings, taking the ball from the starter and serving as a bridge to a closer, or, for that matter, handling the last few innings by himself).
In the first week of June, it's impossible to know what the team's needs will be in late July. (Because of how the calendar falls and MLB's desire to avoid having the deadline fall on a weekend, to avoid the prospect of players being removed from afternoon games). Injuries could play a big role, too. If Christian Vazquez were to break a finger on a foul tip, the Red Sox would suddenly be in the market for a catcher like the Cubs' Willson Contreras. Otherwise, an upgrade at catcher, while a nice idea, would seem like a misuse of resources.
Similarly, it would be nice to add someone like Cincinnati's Luis Castillo or Oakland's Frankie Montas. But for now, the rotation has been above-average and the return of Chris Sale, and eventually, James Paxton, will improve the rotation further. Again, obtaining another starter falls more under the heading of luxury, not need.
That leaves the bullpen, of which there will be no shortage of available options. Annually, more relievers are dealt at the deadline than any other position, and supply often outstrips demand.
It would appear that the Sox are set with lefties. Matt Strahm, his last two outings notwithstanding, has been one of their few dependable arms. Austin Davis has been a pleasant surprise, evolving from just another guy following his deadline acquisition last year to a reliable option. Even Jake Diekman, whose control is suspect, has had his moments.
Therefore, we'll focus our search on righthanders. Chief baseball office Chaim Bloom never adequately replaced Adam Ottavino from last year's roster, and the team lacks an experience righty power set-up man.
Trading for a closer may prove problematic, since there are fewer available. If the Braves don't rally and inject themselves back into the NL race, Kenley Jansen would be an intriguing target.
There's also the issue of player control. Rentals -- even big-name ones like Jansen -- are naturally less expensive in terms of acquisition cost, while players who are a season or more from free agency are, likewise, more costly.
Would the Red Sox favor rentals, so as to not have to part with a Top 10 prospect? Or would they prefer someone who could contribute for several seasons, even if it meant parting with more in terms of young talent?
That's to be determined. For now, he's a list of potential targets, from teams who are expected to be in sell mode:
1. David Robertson, Chicago Cubs.
After missing all of 2020 and pitching just 12 games for Tampa Bay, Robertson has bounced back in a big way for the Cubs (seven saves, 1.86 ERA, 0.879 WHIP). At 37, he'd be strictly a rental and he has plenty of BIg Game experience from his time with the Yankees.
2. Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers.
Fulmer, once a promising starter, shifted to the bullpen two years ago and has become a solid high-leverage reliever. He's got a 2.89 ERA and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning while compiling a 1.125 WHIP. Fulmer is eligible for free agency this fall.
3. Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers.
The hard-throwing Jimenez was supposed to be Detroit's closer of the future, but thanks to some control issues (4.1 walks per 9 IP before this year), he never fully realized his potential. This year, he's thrown more strikes and is enjoying his best season (2.84 ERA, 0.895 WHIP). He has a year of control remaining after this one.
4. Steve Cishek, Washington Nationals
To date, Cishek, a native of Falmouth, is having something of a down year (4.43 ERA, 1.475 WHIP), but as we know with relievers performance, a couple of bad outings can skew results. Cishek is experienced with 13 years in the big leagues. Moreover, his submarine delivery would be a different look for the Boston bullpen. He's eligible for free agency after this season.
5. David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates.
Ordinarily, teams wouldn't consider moving a talented closer with less than two years of major league service time, one who is under control for four whole seasons after this one. But the Pirates have so many needs and have such a long road back to contention that they have to be open to just about anything. Further, a closer on a really bad team, doesn't have the value he would have on a contending club. The cost would be high, given the number of years of control at stake, but Bednar might be worth the investment.
6. Alex Colome, Colorado Rockies.
At 33, Colome isn't as overpowering as he once was. But he has plenty of experience -- both as a closer (he had 17 saves for the Twins last year and 157 in his career) and a set-up man. He's on a one-year deal with the Rockies, and so far has pitched to a 3.12 ERA. That he has just nine strikeouts in 17.1 innings could be an aberration...or a red flag.
7. Carl Edwards Jr., Washington Nationals
Edwards has rebounded nicely after spending much of last year in the minors. He's got a 1.93 ERA and a WHIP of 0.957 WHIP, and like so many on this list, is eligible for free agency after 2022.
8. Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Kennedy has been your basic vagabond pitcher, having played for six teams over a 16-year career, including four since 2020. He transitioned to relief a few years back and has been generally dependable, though his performance this year (3.54 ERA) has been thoroughly average. He's done everything from start to close (26 saves last year) and could be used in almost any inning. He's finishing a one-year deal with the Dbacks.
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Change is coming to Major League Baseball...and soon.
Next year, it's widely expected that MLB will introduce a pitch clock and do something to limit -- if not eliminate altogether -- shifts. In the not-too-distant future, baseball could go to an automated strike zone.
These moves are designed to improve the product on the field, and not incidentally, help improve the pace of play. But there will also be unintended consequences, too.
For instance, the elimination (or restrictions) on shifts could put more of a premium on range among infielders. Currently, with virtually all teams shifting on lefthanded hitters, a greater manpower presence on the right side of the infield means range hasn't been as important for second basemen. If teams are forbidden from having more than two players to the right of second, that, should in theory, make range a more sought-after skill.
That's unlikely, however, to change how teams scout amateur players, according to Paul Toboni, the Red Sox director of amateur scouting.
"It's probably something that's much more relevant to the free agency market, and to a lesser extent, pro scouting,'' said Toboni. "When players are so far away (from the big leagues), like most of the players we're dealing with, there's not much of an emphasis to make us noticeably change evaluation on a player. Range has been important in the past, even with players shifting and it's still going to play an important role in the future. So that difference, if there is any difference at all, being farther away from the big leagues is less likely to change our evaluation.
"Just because teams have been shifting more, that doesn't render range useless, or make it significantly less important. I think where it could change evaluations would be if there was an extreme batted-ball profile -- if a player is very pull heavy, and had hits taken away and (with a ban on shifts) is back to shooting balls in holes that now exist. But once again, that has a greater impact on evaluations as you get closer to the big leagues.'
The prospect of robo umps, however, could be more consequential when it comes to scouting future catchers. As it stands, teams value pitch-framing as an important skill for receivers. The ability to present a pitch in a favorable light by framing it within the strike zone is one of the things evaluators most value, more so than arm strength or even pitch-blocking ability. (That's evident by the trend of one-knee stances for catchers, who are, of course, more susceptible to passed balls).
But if MLB goes with an automated strike zone, there will be no fooling the robotic umps -- a pitch will either cross the plate and be recognized as a strike or it won't, and no amount of positioning or presentation by the catcher will change that.
"That one's a little bit different,'' said Toboni. "If we have a prospect whose chief value is derived almost exclusively through receiving and framing skills, but has a light bat or light power, we'd have to think a little bit more about that. Should the (automated strike zone) go through, obviously those players would be a little bit more disadvantaged than others whose skill sets are rounded out differently.
"It's a balancing act. We want to be responsible here, but we don't want to get caught not seeing the forest for the trees and passing on a prospect on a rule change that isn't necessarily set it stone.''
Toboni said if the automated strike zone were to be adopted, a greater premium would be placed on both the catch-and-throw skills of a catcher, as well as the offensive ability.
"If this happens,''' said Toboni, "finding catchers who block really well is probably going to become (more of a priority).''