MILWAUKEE — The task is pretty simple for the Celtics. Beat the Bucks in Game 4 to tie the series at two apiece and reclaim home court as they head back to Boston, or else go down 3-1 to the defending champs and face the daunting task of having to beat them three straight games to advance.
No pressure.
Here are a few thoughts heading into Game 4 about what the Celtics need to do to get the win.
GET TATUM BACK TO REACTING INSTEAD OF THINKING
Tatum admitted to overthinking things on the floor in Game 3. So how does he snap back into reality?
“Take what the game gives him,” Ime Udoka said Sunday. “(We) had a good film session that saw a lot of opportunities that are missed as far as that, and him understanding we want him to be aggressive and also initiate offense and get other guys shots. But he did pass up some looks he normally would take and we’ll be better with that on Game 4.”
The second half especially was full of snapshots where the Bucks dared him to shoot and he passed up open shots. Some of them were midrange jumpers that, under these circumstances, are shots the Celtics should be happy to get.
But one play above all others highlighted how the Bucks were in Tatum’s head.
Late in the game, with Boston up by one, the Celtics had an opportunity to take control. This is what happened.
There are two very important elements to this play.
First, watch the whole thing again, but just watch Giannis Antetokounmpo the entire time in the top left of your screen.
With 1:19 left in the game he puts his hands on his knees and they stay there for 10 full seconds, but only to make a very casual swipe at Tatum on his way by. He barely moves for this entire clip.
He is wiped out.
Second, there's this:
There is Tatum, with one “defender” on him, and that defender is Pat Connaugton who has been completely spun around. Marcus Smart has Jrue Holiday on his hip and Antetokounmpo isn’t moving at all.
And Tatum gives the ball up.
Sure, Smart gives it back to him, but this is the epitome of overthinking the game. The play clearly called for Smart to get the ball in that situation, but the read is to go to the rim on that play.
This is Jayson Freakin’ Tatum with a full runway to the rim and he was so in his own head that he gave the ball up.
The Bucks did to Tatum what the Celtics did to Kevin Durant in their opening round series. He obviously gave the ball up either out of habit or expectation that more defenders were coming.
This play was Boston’s chance to steal Game 3. Forget whatever fouls were or weren’t called. This entire sequence, starting with Tatum passing on the chance at a clean drive to the rim for a more contested one and ending with Smart not making one extra pass to Jaylen Brown wide open in the corner for an open 3-pointer.
It never should have gotten into Smart’s hands there. This is where Tatum is supposed to make plays.
Get him some early, clean jump shots to knock down and he’ll bounce back. Get him going early and he’ll be OK.
STOP TURNING THE BALL OVER
According to ESPN Stats and Information, Milwaukee scored 1.53 points per play in transition and 0.75 in the half court in Game 3.
This series can be boiled down to that one statistic.
Anything above 1 PPP is good, so obviously the further you go in either direction from there, the better/worse it is. The disparity between these two numbers tells you everything you need to know about how Boston needs to play.
If this series can be reduced to a halfcourt battle, Boston will win. If it becomes a transition game, Milwaukee will win. It’s as simple as that.
We have to make sure to give the Bucks credit for both this and the Tatum point. Their defense has been amazing, and it’s causing Tatum to see ghosts and the Celtics to turn the ball over. They are making Boston pay for every tiny mistake, giving them no margin for error.
Hey, it’s the playoffs. This is how it goes. Protect the ball.
FIND ROBERT WILLIAMS!
The Celtics are losing focus too often in this series and getting away from what made them a great team.
Again, credit Milwaukee’s defense for this. They are frustrating Boston and taking away a lot of opportunities. This makes Jaylen Brown on this play get too focused on finally getting a lane to the basket that he misses the opportunity to get the easy two points through Robert Williams.
This is an easy dump off for a dunk right in this moment:
This is tough to do against Milwaukee but the Celtics just need to have their heads up and be aware of where Rob is on the floor.
At the same time, he has to be better at making himself available. Smart forces the pass to Williams on this drive and turns it over.
I blame Williams equally here because he has to be aware of his role in making this all work.
He knows Brook Lopez is going to be worried about him, yet he still stays in that right dunker’s spot.
When Smart drives right, Williams needs to work the baseline better and move over to the other side of the lane.
Antetokounmpo has Al Horford in the corner, so he’s occupied in that moment. If he really wants to sell out on Williams, the pass to Horford is an easy one. In reality, the play is moving too quick for Giannis to make a play on the pass. If Williams relocates to that side of the floor, Lopez suddenly has a decision to make, and that's what you want to force an opposing defense to do.
Either Lopez is going to sell out on the driver or he’s going to be worried about Williams and clear some space at the rim. Instead of throwing an “oh crap please bail me out” lob, Smart could have spun and backed Grayson Allen down.
Udoka has preached poise and discipline in these moments, and the Celtics need to exercise some in Game 4. The good news is that these are all things Boston can control. Do these things better this series will come back to Boston tied at two.