Working our way through our draft thoughts related to the Patriots as the big event draws closer.
In this edition, we'll start with a survey of eight NFL front offices on the number of players they have with first-round grades and how that may or may not impact the Patriots, a sweet spot of prospects at 21 for New England.
• Let's start with the first-round landscape survey, which has good and bad news for the Patriots.
The average number of players with first-round grades from eight teams was 19. However, one team in particular threw off that number, as they have 26 players they considered first-round talents. The lowest was 14. If you throw out the highest and lowest, then you're right around 19.
The good news? There are no quarterbacks on any of the first-round boards that we surveyed. So if one or more goes in the first round, and you figure that to be the case, then the Patriots should have a first-round talent staring at them if they stay put at 21 (or if someone wants to trade up to that spot).
• But if you're the Patriots, you have to stay put, and you don't really have one of your guys left on the board, perhaps economics come into play as far as wanting to have a guy with a fifth-year of control (fifth-year option for first-round picks). Let's take a look at where the money is going in the short-term future in terms of franchise tags, via overthecap.com:
There's been a lot made recently of the increasing receiver contracts. Not sure if I agree. I mean, once you get beyond safety on this list, they're all in the same ballpark. Edge rushers, receivers and corners are a premium, but surprisingly defensive tackles, linebackers and offensive linemen aren't that far off. Looking at this list, should the Patriots be more apt to draft a receiver in the first round to head-off potential costs? I don't see that. And once you factor in that there are three receivers on rookie deals (Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin) already sitting out voluntary practices after their third season (first time draftable players can be extended), is it really going to matter if you have the fifth-year option available? Not if the position can put up big stats, in my opinion. That's why Isaiah Wynn (OT) and Sony Michel (RB) got their options picked up. N'Keal Harry will not. And Mac Jones will get a new contract before his fifth-year option.
So do economics play a huge factor with where the Patriots are picking? I don't think so. If anything, it might make them more willing to take a player/position that won't be clamoring for an early extension ... like offensive line, defensive tackle and possibly linebacker.
• Which players are likely to be in striking range of the Patriots?
Let's first look at the players who are as good as gone (10):
OT Evan Neal, Alabama
OT Ickey Ekwonu, NC State
WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
WR Drake London, USC
Edge Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
Edge Travon Walker, Georgia
Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Edge Jermaine Johnson, FSU
CB Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
• Likely to be gone (4):
LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
WR Jameson Williams, Alabama
• Could be on the board within striking distance of the Patriots (17):
DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
DT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas
WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State
OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
iOL Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa
iOL Zion Johnson, BC
iOL Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
Edge George Karlaftis, Purdue
Edge Boye Mafe, Minnesota
CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
CB Andrew Booth, Clemson
CB Kaiir Elam, Florida
CB Daxton Hill, Michigan
LB Nakobe Dean, Georgia
LB Quay Walker, Georgia
• Off of that list, I would start to divide them into a few categories:
Good Enough To Trade Up For If The Slide Into Teens (similar to this list but updated)
LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
WR Jameson Williams, Alabama
(Drop off)
DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
• Barring trade up,
Most Likely To Be Available at 21 and value for Patriots
CB Andrew Booth, Clemson
CB Kaiir Elam, Florida
CB Daxton Hill, Michigan
LB Nakobe Dean, Georgia
DT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
iOL Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa
iOL Zion Johnson, BC
Edge George Karlaftis, Purdue
• Based on value and the depth chart ...
Realistic finalists for the 21st spot
CB Andrew Booth, Clemson: Comes from a zone defense but shows good traits to play man with good size (6-foot, 194) and competitiveness. Acceleration is real on film. Loves to tackle in the run game as well. Little tight in the hips.
CB Kaiir Elam, Florida: Great size and ran well (4.39). Inconsistent but the talent is there. This might be early for him.
CB Daxton Hill, Michigan: The next Devin McCourty, in that he can play boundary corner, slot corner and safety at a consistently good level.
WR Chris Olave, Ohio State: Ran 4.39 seconds. Smooth with good foot quickness, very good route runner. Needs to get stronger. Similar to Kendrick Bourne with more upside.
OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa: Has the size (6-6, 330) and talent to follow in the lineage of Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder. Dominated at the Senior Bowl, an even the Patriots love.
iOL Zion Johnson, BC: Nothing flashy and not huge upside, but he rarely gets beat and will be a rock-solid/near-Pro Bowl level NFL guard for years to come. Another Senior Bowl standout.
• If had to rank them as far as what the Patriots will do: Booth, Penning, Hill, Elam, Johnson, Olave.
Who ya got? Who am I missing?
• I eliminated Dean (too small), Wyatt, Linderbaum and Karlaftis (not much of a need).