ROUND ONE
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Brooklyn Nets
SCHEDULE
Game 1: Sunday, 4/16, 3:30 PM (ABC)
Game 2: Wednesday, 4/20, 7:00 PM (TNT, NBC Sports Boston)
Game 3: Saturday, 4/23, 7:30 PM (ESPN, NBC Sports Boston)
Game 4: Monday, 4/25, TBD (TBD, NBC Sports Boston)
Game 5*: Wednesday, 4/27, TBD (TBD, NBC Sports Boston)
Game 6*: Friday, 4/29, TBD (TBD, NBC Sports Boston)
Game 7*: Sunday, 5/1 TBD (TBD, NBC Sports Boston)
*If Necessary
TEAM RANKS
Boston:
Offense: 9th (133.6)
Defense: 1st (106.2)
Since the All-Star Break:
Offense: 1st (122.6)
Defense: 3rd (109.9)
Since March 23 (when Kyrie Irving became a full-time player)
Offense: 1st (124.4)
Defense: 4th (109.9)
Brooklyn:
Offense: 10th (133.2)
Defense: 20th (112.3)
Since the All-Star Break:
Offense: 7th (117.9)
Defense: 18th (115.1)
Since March 23 (when Kyrie Irving became a full-time player)
Offense: 16th (115.9)
Defense: 9th (112.2)
THE BIG STORYLINES
The Nets are trying to salvage a season nearly lost to injuries and vaccine defiance. They walked into the season as one of the heavy favorites, but New York’s vaccine mandate not only held Kyrie Irving out for a significant portion of the season, it drove a wedge between him and James Harden, ultimately leading to Harden’s trade demand. After Kevin Durant’s return from injury, and Irving being allowed to participate part-time in road games, the Nets were able to pull out of their freefall long enough to salvage a play-in spot. They now enter the playoffs as a dangerous 7th seed.
The Celtics are trying to build on one of the most amazing in-season turnarounds in NBA history. After falling to 11th with a record of 18-21, the Celtics became one of the most dominant forces in the NBA, finishing with a 51-31 record and grabbing the 2-seed. Their goal is to prove that the early part of the season was the aberration, and that they really are the steamroller they appeared to be since mid-January.
THE BIG PLAYERS
Boston: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart
Tatum has emerged as an MVP candidate, likely finishing in the top 5 in voting this season, but Brown has put together a pretty solid resume after some early injury absences. In fact, Tatum and Brown’s final stats were pretty even
Tatum: 26.3 ppg, 45.3% fg, 35.3% 3pt, 52.4% 2pt, 85.3% ft, 8 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1 stl, 2.9 tov
Brown: 23.6 ppg, 47.3% fg, 35.8% 3pt, 54.4% 2pt, 75.8% ft, 6.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.1 stl, 2.7 tov
Tatum’s numbers reflect a slow start where he struggled to just about any shots, but he put up a monster March where he averaged 32.8 ppg. Brown has been a bit more consistent, but he’s heading into the playoffs with some real momentum having averaged 25.8 points, 6 rebounds, and 6.2 assists over his last five games.
Smart has been an invaluable piece of Boston’s renaissance. His ability to dictate pace, push the ball, and find teammates while also being a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year has been key to the turnaround. He’s averaging 7.1 apg and his 3-point shooting jumped to 36.9% since the All-Star break. He’s defending, passing, and hitting open shots.
Brooklyn: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving
Durant is a basketball God, and the singular reason to fear this Nets team. While all the rational and statistical analysis favors Boston in this series, the mere existence of Durant is enough to level the playing field. With Durant, it’s not a matter of if he’ll score, it’s how much.
Irving can also be deadly, especially when playing off Durant. He can also mostly get whatever shot he wants because of his sublime ball-handling ability.
“He’s truly a magician with the ball,” Marcus Smart said of Irving. “He has what I like to call ‘last minute moves.’ You think you’ve got him, and he always finds a way to get out of whatever type of situation he’s in.”
THE BIT PLAYERS
Boston: Al Horford, Daniel Theis, Grant Williams, Derrick White
Horford has been a revelation for Boston, proving he still has plenty left in the tank.
“Our medical team has been unbelievable,” he said. “I played, I think, 69 games for this season, and I’ve felt good for most of the season.”
Horford is a key to this series, and in some ways THE key to this series because of his versatility.
“We wouldn't be allowed to do what we do defensively without him and his versatility,” Ime Udoka said. “A true four-man that can guard Embiid and Jokic and those guys, but also switch on the guards is invaluable for what we're trying to do and he's a big piece of that.”
He and Theis are going to dictate how well the Celtics defense will work. It will start on the perimeter, but someone will breakthrough that exterior shell. Without Robert Williams lurking in the shadows, it’s up to Horford and Theis to handle the rim protection. How they do that during Williams’ absence could dictate how the series goes.
Grant Williams will be asked to make his defensive contributions in small lineups, but his biggest role will be hitting corner 3-pointers. He was one of the league’s best this season, and if the Nets are going to focus whatever defensive energy they have on Tatum and Brown, it will be up to Williams, especially, to make Brooklyn pay for that decision.
White will also be called upon to hit shots, but it’s White’s ability to make the right play and move the ball that will be most valuable to Boston’s offense. The Nets' defense will be vulnerable to a constant attack of passing and cutting, and White can do both very well. Forcing Brooklyn’s defenders to make decisions will ultimately mean good things for Boston. Meanwhile, his ability to defend Irving will loom large in this series. Can he stay in front of Irving and use his length to make Irving’s shots difficult? If he can, maybe a few of those shots don’t fall and Boston can get out in transition.
Brooklyn: Bruce Brown, Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, Andre Drummond
Brown is thriving in the wake of Durant and Irving, hitting 40.4% of his 3-pointers just a year after hitting 28.8%. He’s their best two-way role player and he’ll draw the assignment of guarding Jaylen Brown. Brooklyn will switch a lot, so Bruce Brown will have his chances on a lot of Celtics, but Jaylen will be his primary assignment. This could be a game of “first team to neutralize one of the other team’s stars wins,” and the Brown/Brown matchup is probably where Brooklyn is hoping for the best.
Curry has been nursing a sore ankle, but if he’s on, then the Nets have a very dangerous floor-spacer who can open things up for Durant and Irving. The Celtics will likely target Curry when he’s on the floor, so the defense behind him will have to be on point.
That's where Claxton and Drummond come in. There is some debate as to the better starting option because Claxton is the more mobile and athletic shot-blocker while Drummond is the better rebounder and a more immovable object. Drummond is a house, and his ability to get on the offensive boards could be an issue.
THE WILD CARDS
Boston: When will Robert Williams return? If he returns on the early end of the 4-6 week timeframe after his meniscus surgery, he could come back in the middle of the series. If he comes back a little early, that will change what Boston is able to do defensively. If he comes back later, then the Celtics might have to go a whole series without him.
Brooklyn: The Ben Simmons chatter is getting louder. As improbable as it may be that he can come back from a year off and a back injury to contribute, there is reportedly optimism that he could make his debut later in this series. If he can come back and be the real Ben Simmons for even small portions of the game, it could be something that swings the series.
THE STRATEGY
Boston’s offense: It’s all about the ball movement. The Nets will likely switch a lot while throwing double teams and blitzes at Tatum and Brown. The key for Boston’s offense will be to make the Nets regret committing multiple defenders to one person by driving and kicking. The key for the Celtics will be multiple paint attacks and not settling for the first open jumper they see.
There will be a great temptation to simply call for picks to draw Irving or Curry into mismatches and try to take them 1-on-1. While there is certainly a place for that during the game, that can’t be the primary focus of the offense. Again, the more decisions Brooklynn defenders have to make the more holes that will open up. They are not great at making the right decisions.
Boston’s defense: Switch, switch, switch. They are going to do everything they can to chase Brooklyn off the 3-point line and stay in front of their two big guns to force them into tough long-2’s. If Durant is going to drop 40, you want it to be on a lot of shots that take away the opportunity for the supporting cast to kill you. The Celtics will mix in some blitzing at times to get the ball out of Durant’s hands. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Celtics worked in a little zone defense, which they have never played this season but would be a big adjustment against a team that struggles against zones.
Brooklyn’s offense: It’s all about getting it to Durant and Irving. They will try to get switches onto favorable matchups and try to exploit them with isolation play. There's no reason to get cute with it. The only way Brooklyn even managed to salvage what it has this season has been playing Durant and Irving 40-plus minutes per game and having them shoot a ton.
Brooklyn’s defense: They’ll switch a lot too, but they're going to sell out a lot to get the ball out of Tatum’s hands. They are going to try to bait Tatum into turnovers, selling out in passing lanes after blitzes trying to anticipate his pass and get easy buckets in transition. Brooklyn will mix in some zone, especially with Drummond on the floor so he’s not switching onto guards or getting caught in deep drop pick and roll coverage.
THE PREDICTION
If the Celtics are able to stick to their principles, they are going to be hard to beat. While a lot of the focus has been on how good Brooklyn has been offensively, Boston has been elite on both sides of the ball. Boston’s offense has been better than Brooklyn’s no matter how you slice the season, and Brooklyn’s defense has been mediocre at best.
Defense is going to be the difference in this series. Boston understands that Durant and Irving are going to get their numbers, but what they don’t want to do is overreact to that and be drawn into a iso-fest.
“We don't want it to be a shoot out,” Udoka said. “They have some tremendous scorers, but we rely on that end every night. ... They're gonna go on runs at times and we have to continue to do what we're doing, but we do want to set the tone and let them know who we are, which, both teams know each other well. So that's just more of the same that we've been doing the second half of the season.”
Ultimately, the determining factor in this series is a matter of who you trust. Do you trust Durant and Irving to play 45 minutes a night and carry the Nets past the league’s best defense? Or do you trust Udoka and his staff’s influence over the Celtics to get them to stay disciplined and play the style that earned them the 2 seed?
I lean towards the latter. The Nets have already been playing Durant and Irving into the ground just to get to this point. Now they're going to push them even harder?
I don’t think that's going to go well for Brooklyn. I think we could see some shots start to fall short later in games, especially as they have to work harder and harder against a very physical Boston defense. The Celtics have already adopted a “the refs can’t call every foul” philosophy and now we’re heading into the time of year where whistles are just harder to come by.
Those guys are going to get worn down.
On the other end, the Celtics are a well-oiled offensive machine. I have zero faith that Brooklyn’s defense is going to slow Boston down. Even if every game is a knockdown, drag-out battle, I trust Boston’s system and players more than Brooklyn’s.
Celtics in five.